1/I have carefully read some of the replies about my neutrality tweet and I believe that the core problem is missed.
Here’s a thread where I explain how I view things. Feel free to throw me under the buss.
Let’s go!
Here’s a thread where I explain how I view things. Feel free to throw me under the buss.
Let’s go!
2/First let me define a framework for my thoughts on Lebanese politics.
You have several layers that are all part of the Lebanese political game.
You have several layers that are all part of the Lebanese political game.
3/The smallest layer is power struggle over regions in Lebanon. Another layer is the power struggle within confessions to be a leader in one's “community.”
A bigger layer is getting power on a national level and then there are regional politics.
A bigger layer is getting power on a national level and then there are regional politics.
4/Political parties (or figures) within Lebanon will try to keep a balance within this framework. It can be as small as allying with a wealthy businessman who can help you get votes in a Kadaa or within your confession.
5/On a national level, it will be alliances between political parties.
On a regional level, it will be either ideological as in Hezbollah/Iran or tactical to consolidate your power within the national framework.
On a regional level, it will be either ideological as in Hezbollah/Iran or tactical to consolidate your power within the national framework.
6/The crisis we are in is due to our political system.
Alliances between corruption, wealth, power and ideology. It starts with the economic policies: Maintaining peg, Fiscal budget, public employment. It continues with Political and security instability and regional conflicts.
Alliances between corruption, wealth, power and ideology. It starts with the economic policies: Maintaining peg, Fiscal budget, public employment. It continues with Political and security instability and regional conflicts.
7/It is extremely naive to view things in one perspective. It would’ve been impossible to get into such an economic hole without a sharp political divide and confrontation.
8/The peg policy and the swelling public sector maintained public appeasement. While the political conflict was on the forefront.
From 2005 the major political divide in Lebanon has been the Hezbollah weapons.
From 2005 the major political divide in Lebanon has been the Hezbollah weapons.
9/Explaining my opinion about the ingredients of the current collapse is beyond the scope of a twitter thread. But many of you know that I am not a partisan. I am against the Hezbollah weapons, but let’s put that aside for now.
10/After explaining the framework, here comes the importance of neutrality in my opinion. And neutrality in this case excludes the Israeli-Palestinian conflict so as not to get into a harsher swamp in this debate.
Let's look at some possible scenarios.
Let's look at some possible scenarios.
11/Scenario 1: Resolving internal problems while keeping the regional status-quo policy.
a-You have to throw major corrupt players under the bus. There is no way around it. In my opinion this is impossible and I will explain why later.
a-You have to throw major corrupt players under the bus. There is no way around it. In my opinion this is impossible and I will explain why later.
12/b-You will maintain a huge divide between Hezbollah weapons vs Anti-Hezbollah weapons.
Some see Hezbollah as an armed Islamist group that is slowly taking hold of the state.
Others see it as a resistance protecting the south and the Bekaa from Israel and ISIS.
Some see Hezbollah as an armed Islamist group that is slowly taking hold of the state.
Others see it as a resistance protecting the south and the Bekaa from Israel and ISIS.
13/c-Major corrupt players are OK with Hezbollah weapons as long as they maintain their privileges.
d-Hezbollah is OK with major corrupt players as long as they don’t affect its program and goal.
d-Hezbollah is OK with major corrupt players as long as they don’t affect its program and goal.
14/e-In scenario 1, you can do some reforms to satisfy IMF as long as the reforms are acceptable to Hezbollah and the Major corrupt players agendas.
Otherwise you will compromise the IMF program.
Otherwise you will compromise the IMF program.
15/f-In this scenario, pressure will mount on the population and the political class. With the impossibility to make major reforms you will kick the can with extremely thin resources and it will all end with a huge conflict that no one can predict the form or the outcome.
16/Scenario 2: You compromise to get a regional agreement about neutrality that would satisfy the US, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Egypt.
At the same time Hezbollah plays ball without severely compromising its agenda.
At the same time Hezbollah plays ball without severely compromising its agenda.
17/a-This scenario will give you access to funds that would dampen the economic crisis (not resolve)
b-It would diffuse the regional tension away from Lebanon
c-Reforms will fall short of removing major corrupt players or diminishing their power
b-It would diffuse the regional tension away from Lebanon
c-Reforms will fall short of removing major corrupt players or diminishing their power
18/d-The can will be kicked while the economic situation remains extremely fragile
e-Internal pressure will focus all its energy on reforms
d-Hezbollah weapons & corruption will remain as “Jamer ta7et l rmed”
e-You avoid heads on civil war and hope for a slow/improbable change
e-Internal pressure will focus all its energy on reforms
d-Hezbollah weapons & corruption will remain as “Jamer ta7et l rmed”
e-You avoid heads on civil war and hope for a slow/improbable change
19/Scenraio 3: Far fetched and nearly impossible. The regime in Iran fails
a-Hezbollah’s budget will evaporate.
b-Hezbollah will have to compromise on the weapons and get back to strict Lebanese politics.
a-Hezbollah’s budget will evaporate.
b-Hezbollah will have to compromise on the weapons and get back to strict Lebanese politics.
20/c-Major reforms become a possibility, since the political divide will be significantly reduced and all the Lebanese can focus on one goal (corruption).
21/Scenario 4: US policies change following the November elections.
a-Lebanon might get access to funds and kick the can.
b-Hezbollah will keep increasing its grip on power in Lebanon.
a-Lebanon might get access to funds and kick the can.
b-Hezbollah will keep increasing its grip on power in Lebanon.
22/Scenario 5: 1975
23/There are details that are hard to get into a twitter thread. I will put this under article form in the coming days.
Let me know how wrong my view of the situation is.
Let me know how wrong my view of the situation is.
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