An important point. There were 4.7 million more nonparticipants in August compared to February. If all of these had been looking for work in August, the unemployment rate would have been three percentage points higher than the headline figure of 8.4%
This is why unemployment forecasts such as the Fedโs summary of economic projections are highly uncertain right now: big questions around participation, let alone the numerator (unemployed) and the denominator (unemployed and employed)
In June, most Fed officials saw unemployment falling to 9% or 10%, on average, over the Oct-Dec period, but we donโt know what assumptions were made around participation. Would be interesting to see an estimate of โtotal employedโ
Itโs possible you could reasonably estimate employment levels but be considerably off on the unemployment rate given these questions over how childcare or workplace safety are influencing participation
Loading suggestions...