{BTC macro thread}
Firstly, thank you to all of you who showed interest in me doing this.
It actually is quite something to see that almost 40 people are interested in what you have to say.
Besides the market is slow as hell rn so itΒ΄s not like I have anything else to doπ
Firstly, thank you to all of you who showed interest in me doing this.
It actually is quite something to see that almost 40 people are interested in what you have to say.
Besides the market is slow as hell rn so itΒ΄s not like I have anything else to doπ
{TA-6M}
The stars of this thread are the ultra high tfs - the 6M and the 3M.
A few days ago we got the 6M close and boy does it not look healthy - the candle closed with a very nasty bearish wick indicating a change of momentum.
Closest support at roughly 14 000 per BTC.
The stars of this thread are the ultra high tfs - the 6M and the 3M.
A few days ago we got the 6M close and boy does it not look healthy - the candle closed with a very nasty bearish wick indicating a change of momentum.
Closest support at roughly 14 000 per BTC.
Upside wicks on high tfs can happen but they usually indicate profit taking and they rarely close below the 0.5 fib let alone the 0.618 or 0.786.
This one did.
The latest 6M close also implies new ATHs on BTC are not realistic at least for the next 6M candle.
This one did.
The latest 6M close also implies new ATHs on BTC are not realistic at least for the next 6M candle.
{TA-3M}
Next up, the quarterly.
A gigantic bearish orderblock has been established and itΒ΄s likely the path from mid 35k region to high 50k is going to be a concerto of SFPs, roll - overs and misery even if it does eventually reach new ATH.
Closest support at 13.8k.
Next up, the quarterly.
A gigantic bearish orderblock has been established and itΒ΄s likely the path from mid 35k region to high 50k is going to be a concerto of SFPs, roll - overs and misery even if it does eventually reach new ATH.
Closest support at 13.8k.
Fun fact: we have never had bearish divergence on BTC on a timeframe higher than the monthly - until now.
Conservative target for the divergence play is the 9 EMA (green) and it has been tested.
But if things go really bad we are, once again, looking at the mid 10k region.
Conservative target for the divergence play is the 9 EMA (green) and it has been tested.
But if things go really bad we are, once again, looking at the mid 10k region.
{TA-1M}
On the monthly, we have a clear bollinger band rejection. A simple yet effective indicator that suggests a test of the 20MA is extremely likely coming.
Nearest monthly support? Yes, you guessed it, the 14k level.
On the monthly, we have a clear bollinger band rejection. A simple yet effective indicator that suggests a test of the 20MA is extremely likely coming.
Nearest monthly support? Yes, you guessed it, the 14k level.
{TA-2W}
While the picture I am painting so far is definitely bearish the sub 1M tfs suggest temporary bottom is in.
Biweekly OB held and on top of that the last biweekly candle closed as a dragonfly doji - strong sign of potential reversal.
Not a place to be megabear imo.
While the picture I am painting so far is definitely bearish the sub 1M tfs suggest temporary bottom is in.
Biweekly OB held and on top of that the last biweekly candle closed as a dragonfly doji - strong sign of potential reversal.
Not a place to be megabear imo.
If we finally get some kind of a rally do not get your hopes up too much - anything above 45k is danger zone and an area where you consider taking long profits of the table and opening up shorts.
Strong chances of a mid-high tf rejection at least on the first attempt.
Strong chances of a mid-high tf rejection at least on the first attempt.
{TA-1W}
The weekly supports the biweekly scenario of price temporarily going up from here.
Several long wicks to the downside with a double bottom forming suggests that the first wave of sellers has been exhausted and that for any additional demand bombs price must go up first.
The weekly supports the biweekly scenario of price temporarily going up from here.
Several long wicks to the downside with a double bottom forming suggests that the first wave of sellers has been exhausted and that for any additional demand bombs price must go up first.
{TA-5D}
Lastly, the 5D.
Not much to add except that the bullish wicks become even more apparent and that price is sitting right on the edge of the Kumo cloud - not a place to be bearish only until and unless the 5D starts closing below it.
Lastly, the 5D.
Not much to add except that the bullish wicks become even more apparent and that price is sitting right on the edge of the Kumo cloud - not a place to be bearish only until and unless the 5D starts closing below it.
{TA-bonus}
While this thread is centered around BTC, I do want to remind you that this period of crypto weakness comes alongside equity indexes rallying to ATH and beyond.
Very worrying as it automatically begs the question: what happens to Bitcoin if legacy goes south?
While this thread is centered around BTC, I do want to remind you that this period of crypto weakness comes alongside equity indexes rallying to ATH and beyond.
Very worrying as it automatically begs the question: what happens to Bitcoin if legacy goes south?
{TA-summary}
To sum up, we are definitely in a bear mkt. and have been for quite some time now.
New ATHs likely but itΒ΄s still going to take a few months for the market to discharge every single arrogant twat that came into crypto in the last half a year and had it very easy.
To sum up, we are definitely in a bear mkt. and have been for quite some time now.
New ATHs likely but itΒ΄s still going to take a few months for the market to discharge every single arrogant twat that came into crypto in the last half a year and had it very easy.
{TA-summary}
The level that keeps showing up is 14k. I like it because:
1. it has great confluence on several tfs
2. a test of it would destroy all those who are looking at fRAcTals and compare cycles
After all, BTC so far has never went below itΒ΄s previous ATH right?π
The level that keeps showing up is 14k. I like it because:
1. it has great confluence on several tfs
2. a test of it would destroy all those who are looking at fRAcTals and compare cycles
After all, BTC so far has never went below itΒ΄s previous ATH right?π
{Summary}
Originally, I intended to do this thread using TA then later adding various hypothesis and my own thoughts in general.
It would be too long of a thread though!
Like and retweet this one and I will do the second part this week.
Cheers!
Originally, I intended to do this thread using TA then later adding various hypothesis and my own thoughts in general.
It would be too long of a thread though!
Like and retweet this one and I will do the second part this week.
Cheers!
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