It is the end of a major bull run?
This viewpoint is now being presented by several top investors.
If you read the newspapers, watch the news or track the markets, this is what you'd feel.
So should you sell? And go away.
A thread...
This viewpoint is now being presented by several top investors.
If you read the newspapers, watch the news or track the markets, this is what you'd feel.
So should you sell? And go away.
A thread...
1/ Here is the history of major bull runs:
It is not uncommon for bull runs to last for more than 5 years.
It is not uncommon for bull runs to last for more than 5 years.
2/The last 3 bull runs have also had a fairly good run.
Interestingly, the last bull run ended in 2020 (with COVID crash).
Interestingly, the last bull run ended in 2020 (with COVID crash).
3/If you check NIFTY-50 current 5 year returns, it stands at 91%.
For a 5 year period these are not amazing returns. This implies a CAGR of less than 15%.
So saying that the markets are overvalued as of now, would be a stretch.
For a 5 year period these are not amazing returns. This implies a CAGR of less than 15%.
So saying that the markets are overvalued as of now, would be a stretch.
4/But what about major crises that are panning out?
a. Oil Prices:
This is the 25 year chart of Crude.
The world exhibited good growth despite periods of high Oil prices.
Why is this time any different?
a. Oil Prices:
This is the 25 year chart of Crude.
The world exhibited good growth despite periods of high Oil prices.
Why is this time any different?
b. Ukraine- Russia crises:
Well, Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, stock market struggled for a micro time and then the world moved on.
No one (de-facto) stopped trading with Russia.
The countries in the modern day cannot afford not to trade with each other.
Well, Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, stock market struggled for a micro time and then the world moved on.
No one (de-facto) stopped trading with Russia.
The countries in the modern day cannot afford not to trade with each other.
c. NSE scam and other stuff:
Do you really this that Indian stock markets will evaporate due to the NSE scam?
If that were the case, we would have any political party left in India.
People move on from scams.
Do you really this that Indian stock markets will evaporate due to the NSE scam?
If that were the case, we would have any political party left in India.
People move on from scams.
5/Summary:
- The last bull run ended in 2020.
- We witnessed the first leg of the bull run in 2021-2022.
- Markets might move sideways for a few months.
The markets might also correct, but this is definitely not the end of the bull run.
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- The last bull run ended in 2020.
- We witnessed the first leg of the bull run in 2021-2022.
- Markets might move sideways for a few months.
The markets might also correct, but this is definitely not the end of the bull run.
Liked the content? Please Retweet :)
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