I am not seeing one positive prediction about the future on Fintwit now, usually I can see at least one, but we truly are are only pessimism.
Now while I certainly understand the negative events/headwinds, I still want to look at both sides.
Now while I certainly understand the negative events/headwinds, I still want to look at both sides.
With Russiaโs sanctions the oil branch will be extremely reactive to any type of deal to supply the current shortages at a discount should nations decide to do so.
We saw shell buy Russian oil within the last days at a discount.
Metal/Mining and grain are small comparatively
We saw shell buy Russian oil within the last days at a discount.
Metal/Mining and grain are small comparatively
As for Ukraine, as soon as this conflict ends, the easiest way to rebuild the economy will be to do so via grain and steel, two of their biggest exports.
Now the biggest issue in my view and keep in mind I am not a geopolitics expert is that if Putin pulls back, he will most likely be done.
The economy will be crippled and only thousands of deaths will be to show for with a general anger within the upper class especially.
The economy will be crippled and only thousands of deaths will be to show for with a general anger within the upper class especially.
In a sense he canโt back off now.
In my eyes the only way he pulls back is through a major economical deal and as you can see above, with 30% of exports being linked to oil and the margins linked to it, the deal would most likely come from this area.
In my eyes the only way he pulls back is through a major economical deal and as you can see above, with 30% of exports being linked to oil and the margins linked to it, the deal would most likely come from this area.
While most might think it is impossible for a few to be reached.. Iโll say this is exactly the feeling you would want to instill in order to get power at the table.
I think the level of pushback from Ukraine was not expected and even if Russia manages to invade,they could not..
I think the level of pushback from Ukraine was not expected and even if Russia manages to invade,they could not..
Hold it without occupying it.
Zelenskyy inspired his whole country. If Russia kills him, he will be a martyr forever and his people will never surrender, Russia knows it.
We have seen the first signs that Russia is scrambling to get back at the table, but it needs to seem..
Zelenskyy inspired his whole country. If Russia kills him, he will be a martyr forever and his people will never surrender, Russia knows it.
We have seen the first signs that Russia is scrambling to get back at the table, but it needs to seem..
Like a Russian win in order to work.
This is about maintaining power for Putin imo. If he can strike a deal that makes it seem so, it would be highly considered I would think.
Now the question is would Ukraine and the west accept such a deal?
This is about maintaining power for Putin imo. If he can strike a deal that makes it seem so, it would be highly considered I would think.
Now the question is would Ukraine and the west accept such a deal?
Regarding that question I will refer back to the exports.
Do not underestimate the power of price stability such a deal would give the west.
Ukraine wants its land, Russia wants less nato pressure and an economical incentive and the west want stability(price and geopolitical)
Do not underestimate the power of price stability such a deal would give the west.
Ukraine wants its land, Russia wants less nato pressure and an economical incentive and the west want stability(price and geopolitical)
To come back to my point.If a deal is struck while oil from other countries and ways is unleashed,we could have a situation where we are overflooded with oil.
If that is the case and the war stops at the same time while inflation tappers off, we might see something interesting.
If that is the case and the war stops at the same time while inflation tappers off, we might see something interesting.
Again Iโm not a geopolitical expert by any means and there are other psychological components to this issue, but I wanted to make this thread to gather my thoughts and I thought I would share.
I hope peace is close in these times of hate and anger. ๐ โ๐ป
I hope peace is close in these times of hate and anger. ๐ โ๐ป
One more thing is to understand we have two major different players on the west side.
While Russia accounts from 8% of global oil supply:
The EU is importing 40% of its gas from Russia.
The US is only importing 3% of oil through Russia.
While Russia accounts from 8% of global oil supply:
The EU is importing 40% of its gas from Russia.
The US is only importing 3% of oil through Russia.
For those wondering why the US isnโt contracting due to it, this is the main reason.
As for wheat and grain, the US is the second leading exporter of wheat, flour, and wheat products in terms of export volume.
The US is in a very strong position.
As for wheat and grain, the US is the second leading exporter of wheat, flour, and wheat products in terms of export volume.
The US is in a very strong position.
Deal*
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