Do I know what will be next?
- Nope
Do I have to know what will be next?
- No, I have potential scenarios and the levels where the probability of them playing out increase.
Do I lean towards one?
- Yes, relief up after leaving this consolidation
Up, down or sideways?
1/x
- Nope
Do I have to know what will be next?
- No, I have potential scenarios and the levels where the probability of them playing out increase.
Do I lean towards one?
- Yes, relief up after leaving this consolidation
Up, down or sideways?
1/x
Bitcoin is sitting at the macro range low but trapped between this level and a resistance around 31k.
We’ve seen some heavy panic and even stable coin selling into this macro support.
Support is support as long as it holds
2/x
We’ve seen some heavy panic and even stable coin selling into this macro support.
Support is support as long as it holds
2/x
Currently I:
A) Look for set ups within this lower time frame range
B) Mark out ALL potential scenario’s after leaving the range
C) Find triggers that increase the probability of one scenario.
D) Have a plan for any of these scenario’s which I will execute after the trigger.
3/x
A) Look for set ups within this lower time frame range
B) Mark out ALL potential scenario’s after leaving the range
C) Find triggers that increase the probability of one scenario.
D) Have a plan for any of these scenario’s which I will execute after the trigger.
3/x
Our current scenario. The lower time frame range above the macro range low support.
Personally looking for sweeps of the highs/lows at the range extremes. Only playing these 2 spots.
Range low long deviation
- Will look for a BTC long
- Look for Altcoin set ups
4/x
Personally looking for sweeps of the highs/lows at the range extremes. Only playing these 2 spots.
Range low long deviation
- Will look for a BTC long
- Look for Altcoin set ups
4/x
Will, from here on, not take a short anymore on a deviation at the range high as if this happens we would have broken the trendline in any way we could draw it.
Not fading this break out while sitting above the macro range low support.
5/x
Not fading this break out while sitting above the macro range low support.
5/x
If Bitcoin does sweep the lows at the range low and maybe even the deepest low BUT does reclaim the range again..
I’ll be heavily watching a sweep of these equal lows on Ethereum followed by a reclaim.
6/x
I’ll be heavily watching a sweep of these equal lows on Ethereum followed by a reclaim.
6/x
Another scenario would be a break out above and reclaim of the resistance above us.
Looking for:
- A Daily close above (1)
- A LTF break out above grey (2)
Plan:
- Bitcoin long
- ETH spot
- Altcoin set ups
Scale out again at the x’s (3)
7/x
Looking for:
- A Daily close above (1)
- A LTF break out above grey (2)
Plan:
- Bitcoin long
- ETH spot
- Altcoin set ups
Scale out again at the x’s (3)
7/x
Invalidation for this idea would be:
- A lower time frame break back in the range + lower time frame bearish MS break.
- Price closing back below the Daily break out candle and demand/origin.
8/x
- A lower time frame break back in the range + lower time frame bearish MS break.
- Price closing back below the Daily break out candle and demand/origin.
8/x
Our last and less green scenario would be a breakdown of this LTF range, which would mean a loss of this macro range support.
In general if such a big level goes I’m looking at levels with at least the same time frame or importance for a reversal which I’m willing to blind bid.
In general if such a big level goes I’m looking at levels with at least the same time frame or importance for a reversal which I’m willing to blind bid.
24xxx is a level I would like to play if we get there but will wait for extra confirmation in some form. This could be a fake out or bullish price action break.
The 17xxx-20xxx zone is a zone I would be happy to blind bid.
10/x
The 17xxx-20xxx zone is a zone I would be happy to blind bid.
10/x
If we do break down I’m back to being cautiously in a mix of stables and ETH.
I also hold some longer term FA plays, and a decreased amount of NFTs.
I have an idea of potential scenario’s, triggers, different plans, no bias and no stress.
Also not making too much moves.
11/11
I also hold some longer term FA plays, and a decreased amount of NFTs.
I have an idea of potential scenario’s, triggers, different plans, no bias and no stress.
Also not making too much moves.
11/11
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