🧵The Current Global Housing Crash🧵
1/
Regime media around the world is being shockingly silent about what is by far the biggest news story not not involving 10s of thousands of artillery shells.
The Global housing market is already in free-fall.
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Regime media around the world is being shockingly silent about what is by far the biggest news story not not involving 10s of thousands of artillery shells.
The Global housing market is already in free-fall.
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In my small Canadian town, from one month to the next, we went from the hottest real estate in 3 generations to one of the coldest.
In my small Canadian town, from one month to the next, we went from the hottest real estate in 3 generations to one of the coldest.
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One house would be for sale at a time, and it would get scooped up in a week for 100k over asking...
and a month later 20 were on the market and close to none have sold in 3 months. The "For Sale" Sign across the street has been there since late May.
One house would be for sale at a time, and it would get scooped up in a week for 100k over asking...
and a month later 20 were on the market and close to none have sold in 3 months. The "For Sale" Sign across the street has been there since late May.
4/
In some parts of the Greater Toronto Area houses are down 300k from their February prices... and already sold deals are ending in lawsuits as financing either falls through or regretful buyers try to backout and make accusations.
In some parts of the Greater Toronto Area houses are down 300k from their February prices... and already sold deals are ending in lawsuits as financing either falls through or regretful buyers try to backout and make accusations.
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But this is worse than merely the Canadian market, This could be the start of a decades long housing slump
Ever wonder how all those mansions in middle America came to be abandoned by the 50s? Well that's happens when housing is no longer a rising asset just another expense
But this is worse than merely the Canadian market, This could be the start of a decades long housing slump
Ever wonder how all those mansions in middle America came to be abandoned by the 50s? Well that's happens when housing is no longer a rising asset just another expense
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As I covered in my last thread China's housing market is doomed
Evergrande and Mortgage strikes are nothing compared to the dramatic decades long demographic and economic freefall they've already entered.
As I covered in my last thread China's housing market is doomed
Evergrande and Mortgage strikes are nothing compared to the dramatic decades long demographic and economic freefall they've already entered.
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Chinese real estate is the largest asset class in the world and by far largest savings vehicle for the people with the highest savings rate in the world.
China's love of real estate has not only driven their own markets crazy, its drives the world real estate market
Chinese real estate is the largest asset class in the world and by far largest savings vehicle for the people with the highest savings rate in the world.
China's love of real estate has not only driven their own markets crazy, its drives the world real estate market
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Wealthy Chinese families are like wealthy families in every developing country... they a vulnerable to political and economic backsliding, personal and national.
Wealthy Chinese families are like wealthy families in every developing country... they a vulnerable to political and economic backsliding, personal and national.
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So the first they do is teach their kids English, get them to a western university, get a residency or second citizenship, and buy real estate in their new safe haven, so they aren't just politically insulated, they have a small fortune nestled out of reach of their government
So the first they do is teach their kids English, get them to a western university, get a residency or second citizenship, and buy real estate in their new safe haven, so they aren't just politically insulated, they have a small fortune nestled out of reach of their government
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Every elite from every non-western country does this, but China's drove the market because their were so many
And boy does this drive markets
LA, San Francisco, Seattle, Vancouver, New York, London, Toronto, Melbourne, Sidney, Singapore
They've all seen real estate explode
Every elite from every non-western country does this, but China's drove the market because their were so many
And boy does this drive markets
LA, San Francisco, Seattle, Vancouver, New York, London, Toronto, Melbourne, Sidney, Singapore
They've all seen real estate explode
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Every major English speaking city has seen this.
BlogTO even had recurring articles where they'd compare the prices of Toronto real estate with the prices of French Castles...
Only the very nicest castles ever won.
Foreign elites don't teach their kids French.
Every major English speaking city has seen this.
BlogTO even had recurring articles where they'd compare the prices of Toronto real estate with the prices of French Castles...
Only the very nicest castles ever won.
Foreign elites don't teach their kids French.
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The thing is all this money Is gone. China's property market is crashing which will drag it down, but more importantly the CCP is cracking down hard on travel abroad, this crop of Chinese foreign students will be the last full sized one western universities see
The thing is all this money Is gone. China's property market is crashing which will drag it down, but more importantly the CCP is cracking down hard on travel abroad, this crop of Chinese foreign students will be the last full sized one western universities see
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All this foreign money is leaving the market right as interest rates are skyrocketing
Western economies should have had a housing crash during the COVID lockdowns, instead interest rates hit record lows and government spending peaked thus the obscene prices we saw in FEB
All this foreign money is leaving the market right as interest rates are skyrocketing
Western economies should have had a housing crash during the COVID lockdowns, instead interest rates hit record lows and government spending peaked thus the obscene prices we saw in FEB
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The amount of money you can get for a mortgage is determined by your ability to pay it back.
Mortgage interest rates were as low as 1.7% at the peak of COVID. or $17'000 on a 1million dollar mortgage... fairly doable.
Now the bank of Canada rate 3.25%.
The amount of money you can get for a mortgage is determined by your ability to pay it back.
Mortgage interest rates were as low as 1.7% at the peak of COVID. or $17'000 on a 1million dollar mortgage... fairly doable.
Now the bank of Canada rate 3.25%.
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The best rate I can find online for a variable rate mortgage in Canada is 4.7%... and that's probably out of date. Most listed are above 5%.
That $17'000 in annual interest you might have paid on a million dollar mortgage is now closer to $50'000...
The best rate I can find online for a variable rate mortgage in Canada is 4.7%... and that's probably out of date. Most listed are above 5%.
That $17'000 in annual interest you might have paid on a million dollar mortgage is now closer to $50'000...
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No bank is going to offer someone who just barely qualified for a million at 1.7% anywhere near that much now that we're looking at 5
The amount of money you can get for a mortgage has more than halved. And those sitting on variable rate million dollar mortgages are screwed
No bank is going to offer someone who just barely qualified for a million at 1.7% anywhere near that much now that we're looking at 5
The amount of money you can get for a mortgage has more than halved. And those sitting on variable rate million dollar mortgages are screwed
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At the peak of the housing frenzy in Canada services in various immigrant communities would arrange false income statements to qualify for larger mortgages, parents would remortgage to help their children make down-payments
the fear of being locked out was palpable
At the peak of the housing frenzy in Canada services in various immigrant communities would arrange false income statements to qualify for larger mortgages, parents would remortgage to help their children make down-payments
the fear of being locked out was palpable
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Now all that desperation and overleveraging is going to face a deep recession, right as the majority of foreign money is drying up, the building sector is going to enter a massive slump, and the cost of debt is ballooning.
And this is the story in every major English city
Now all that desperation and overleveraging is going to face a deep recession, right as the majority of foreign money is drying up, the building sector is going to enter a massive slump, and the cost of debt is ballooning.
And this is the story in every major English city
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As touched on the Mainland European housing Market never got as overheated. Owning your own French Chateau remains an achievable goal for upper-middleclass North Americans...
But they could be in for it too thanks to Ukraine.
As touched on the Mainland European housing Market never got as overheated. Owning your own French Chateau remains an achievable goal for upper-middleclass North Americans...
But they could be in for it too thanks to Ukraine.
20/
Sanctions on Russia have backfired, the Rubble is up while the Euro has hit new lows. For the first time in my memory the Euro has dropped to par with the dollar effectively wiping out billions in value
Sanctions on Russia have backfired, the Rubble is up while the Euro has hit new lows. For the first time in my memory the Euro has dropped to par with the dollar effectively wiping out billions in value
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But the real danger is what happens in Winter, if Putin follows through on threats to restrict Natural Gas to Europe, combined with a bad winter, Europeans could see the lights and heat go out
And nothing drive international real estate more than the consistency of utilities
But the real danger is what happens in Winter, if Putin follows through on threats to restrict Natural Gas to Europe, combined with a bad winter, Europeans could see the lights and heat go out
And nothing drive international real estate more than the consistency of utilities
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Put simply we are facing a depression and global economic realignment
If we're fortunate it will resemble the lesser depressions of the 19th and early 20th century instead of the great depression
But our ridiculously inflated real estate won't survive. Its already falling
Put simply we are facing a depression and global economic realignment
If we're fortunate it will resemble the lesser depressions of the 19th and early 20th century instead of the great depression
But our ridiculously inflated real estate won't survive. Its already falling
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