Ryan McBeth makes a somewhat compelling case that Russia might launch a limited nuclear strike against the UK as a way out of the Ukraine mess.
The UK could hit back with a similarly limited strike but Putin wouldn't care.
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The UK could hit back with a similarly limited strike but Putin wouldn't care.
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The risk of the UK responding with a full nuclear counterattack probably isn't that high, and the US probably wouldn't respond.
Just 2 nukes could cause 1 million casualties and knock out infrastructure.
Just 2 nukes could cause 1 million casualties and knock out infrastructure.
The only point I disagree on is targeting datacenters (seems silly/irrelevant since data can be moved anywhere in the world). Most likely just more ports/refineries/freight/rail.
One takeaway from scenarios like this is that you really don't want to be happily sitting on a likely target for small-scale exchange if you can avoid it.
Military bases in the UK, places like Portsmouth are now extra risky.
Our government is poking the bear.
Military bases in the UK, places like Portsmouth are now extra risky.
Our government is poking the bear.
In fact, the logic of the UK being a leading anti-Russia power with an inadequate nuclear deterrent makes it extremely risky right now.
If you want a game theory explanation of the problem, it looks like this: if the outcome of losing a conventional war is worse for Putin than a limited strike, he'll choose a limited strike (and NATO will only make a limited response)
Implications if you are in the UK:
- don't be near military or industrial facilities
- prep like crazy (food, fuel, weapons)
- don't be in a big city
- have friends and relatives close
Or leave for the next few years whilst our globalist government gambles.
- don't be near military or industrial facilities
- prep like crazy (food, fuel, weapons)
- don't be in a big city
- have friends and relatives close
Or leave for the next few years whilst our globalist government gambles.
Spain and Ireland are likely much safer. In fact Northern Ireland is a great one because if it happens you'll have help from the Republic of Ireland.
British policymakers can avoid this by publicly placing constraints on Ukraine, e.g. saying that Zelensky can't do stuff like say "I won't negotiate with Putin" and that the support is support for a limited war back to the status quo ex ante or something.
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