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I’ve been talking about the Russian build up of forces in Belarus since October. Now this build up is being noted by many western media sources and military analysts. This *may* suggest a decreasing likelihood of a Russian counter-offensive south from Belarus.
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I’ve been talking about the Russian build up of forces in Belarus since October. Now this build up is being noted by many western media sources and military analysts. This *may* suggest a decreasing likelihood of a Russian counter-offensive south from Belarus.
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Indeed, many of the Russian-friendly analysts whom I respect are dubious of a “big arrow” Russian offensive out of Belarus. And it’s difficult to dismiss their sound logic.
That said, I think it is worthwhile to revisit Soviet strategy from WW2.
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That said, I think it is worthwhile to revisit Soviet strategy from WW2.
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In the famous and decisive Battle of Kursk – which took place in the vicinity of current operations in this war – the Red Army incorporated an unprecedented amount of “maskirovka” to conceal their intent from the German high command.
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First of all, they feigned weakness and established defensive positions to invite German attacks, which were then exploited to attrit the Wehrmacht in advance of the Red Army’s subsequent counter-offensive.
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Then, once they commenced their offensive, they masked their primary objective with extremely potent diversionary moves designed to draw German forces away from their preferred locus of attack.
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These diversionary attacks were much more than merely “feints”. They were big arrow movements in their own right – but they were NOT the primary objective of Soviet commanders.
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Indeed, the diversionary attacks were given many days to develop, and they were costly. But they did succeed in drawing away several key German panzer divisions from the real target of the counter-offensive.
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Consequently, when the major thrust commenced, it ultimately achieved all its aims, and the Germans never recovered from the devastating defeat they suffered.
I cover the story of the battle in greater detail here:
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imetatronink.substack.com
I cover the story of the battle in greater detail here:
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imetatronink.substack.com
Keeping in mind this precedent from WW2, I am inclined to believe wherever the Russians counter-attack first in their anticipated “winter offensive” in Ukraine, it will not be in the area of their intended largest thrust.
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