Matt Kennard
Matt Kennard

@kennardmatt

3 Tweets 26 reads Feb 26, 2023
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a major crime, but there is no country on earth that would not view the expansion of a hostile military alliance along its borders as a threat to its national security.
I’ve been reading the declassified files from 1990s. NATO knew all the risks.
It's true that Putin may have invaded Ukraine without NATO expansion. But a major reason he could bring the Russian people along is because he had the perfect casus belli.
Before invasion, 50% of Russians were in favour of war to stop Ukraine joining NATO. Only 25% against.
In 1996, Russian PM Chernomyrdin told his ally UK PM Major that NATO expansion "would create a fragile situation which could explode."
It "would recreate volatility in Europe, just when peace + stability had been reestablished. Russia was not an enemy now but could become one."

Loading suggestions...