This 150 year old prediction has predicted almost all major crisis since mid 1920s.
It predicts that the stock market is bottoming out in 2023.
And, would continue to be in a bull run till 2035.
Should you believe this prediction?
An economic analysis
[A thread...]
It predicts that the stock market is bottoming out in 2023.
And, would continue to be in a bull run till 2035.
Should you believe this prediction?
An economic analysis
[A thread...]
[1] Let's understand the prediction first:
This prediction is called Benner Cycle.
It was given by an American farmer called Samuel Benner.
Point A indicates the crisis years (the market falls after this)
Point C indicates bottoming out years (markets rises post this)
This prediction is called Benner Cycle.
It was given by an American farmer called Samuel Benner.
Point A indicates the crisis years (the market falls after this)
Point C indicates bottoming out years (markets rises post this)
![[1] Let's understand the prediction first:
This prediction is called Benner Cycle.
It was given...](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr9k1IjakAAGuKS.jpg)
[2] The logic behind these predictions are quite simple:
Banner used to be a farmer, so he tied everything back to the solar cycles.
Solar cycles impacted productivity of wheat, rice other commodities.
And, in turn the market prices for other commodities like Metals.
Banner used to be a farmer, so he tied everything back to the solar cycles.
Solar cycles impacted productivity of wheat, rice other commodities.
And, in turn the market prices for other commodities like Metals.
[3] The logic made a lot of sense at least till 1990s, till mid 1970s, for two reasons:
a. The dominance of Agriculture was significant.
b. There was no 'fake money' problem i.e money could not be artificially created. (let's call this the leverage problem)
But, overtime...
a. The dominance of Agriculture was significant.
b. There was no 'fake money' problem i.e money could not be artificially created. (let's call this the leverage problem)
But, overtime...
![[3] The logic made a lot of sense at least till 1990s, till mid 1970s, for two reasons:
a. The do...](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr9l4WDacAEng5s.jpg)
[4] 1970s onwards, however, the world changed:
- The US moved away from the Gold standard (and forced the world to do the same)
- This resulted in money becoming an infinite commodity.
Here is M1 Money supply in the US.
- The US moved away from the Gold standard (and forced the world to do the same)
- This resulted in money becoming an infinite commodity.
Here is M1 Money supply in the US.
![[4] 1970s onwards, however, the world changed:
- The US moved away from the Gold standard (and for...](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fr9mNeZakAAa_6M.jpg)
Another area at play was the increasing adoption of tech.
The period between 1990-2008 was an era: where Internet (not commodity based businesses) found their roots.
And, one could simply create power-points to raise a Bn$.
The period between 1990-2008 was an era: where Internet (not commodity based businesses) found their roots.
And, one could simply create power-points to raise a Bn$.
[5] These were (according to me) few one the key reasons why the Banner prediction could not predict the 2008 crisis.
2008 had nothing to do with commodity cycles.
But, it had everything to do with the 'fake money' (deep leverage problem).
2008 had nothing to do with commodity cycles.
But, it had everything to do with the 'fake money' (deep leverage problem).
[6] So as we circle back to 2023: will the markets fall or rise?
I don't know.
Every investor would have their own viewpoint.
And, I have mine.
I have explained this (in detail) on this video: youtu.be
I don't know.
Every investor would have their own viewpoint.
And, I have mine.
I have explained this (in detail) on this video: youtu.be
Irrespective, the Benner prediction is quite remarkable. And supports the theory that there is roughly 1 big market crash every 10 years.
If you liked the content:
[1] Do consider retweeting the 1st tweet.
[2] And, follow:
If you liked the content:
[1] Do consider retweeting the 1st tweet.
[2] And, follow:
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