Michael Pettis
Michael Pettis

@michaelxpettis

4 Tweets 1 reads May 22, 2023
1/4
"China has issued guidance to all provinces to build a basic elderly care system by 2025." This is certainly a much-needed step in the right direction that can help reduce precautionary saving.
reuters.com
2/4
But whether it reduces economy-wide saving and boosts overall consumption depends crucially on how it is funded. Local governments are too squeezed for revenues to be able to fund this directly.
3/4
If instead they fund it by raising fees and taxes on households, or by cutting existing services to households, it will mainly represent transfers from non-elderly households to the elderly, in which case its overall impact on consumption will be negligible.
4/4
If, however, they fund it by liquidating assets owned by local governments, it will represent exactly the kind of transfers to households that will boost consumption and reduce economy-wide saving.

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