Much discussion about an impending IDF ground assault into the Gaza Strip. But what exactly might that look like..and how effective would it be? A š§µ, to generate discussion.šComments welcomed
First, whatās the Israeli military aim? According to the Israeli Defence Minister, itās to āwipe this thing called Hamas off the face of the earthā. Emotive language, but if we unpack that a little, what are the potential military objectives and challenges to them?
Urban areas are the most challenging environment in which to fight. Terrain favours the defender (Hamas). 360 degree battlefield. Non-linear. Prepared defensive strong points. Pre-planned killing areas. Depth. All round defence. Mutual support. A nightmare for an attacking force
So IDF would prefer therefore for the civilian population to leave. Allows them to use military advantage - air power and artillery - to destroy Hamas defensive positions and offensive capability. But this just isnāt possible in a congested environment with civilians
Which is why Hamas will discourage the population from leaving, effectively using human shields to force the IDF to fight on disadvantageous terms. Or to inflict dreadful levels of collateral damage on the civilian population. Which is a war crime by both sides
So those are some of the generic challenges facing the IDF in Gaza. But what is it that we think theyāre expecting to achieve?
Objective 1. Rescue the hostages. Not easy. By any means. They will almost certainly be widely dispersed across Gaza and heavily protected. Canāt foresee a successful military solution to this objective. Diplomacy a better option
Objective 2. Capture or kill Hamas political and military leadership. This is a given. But again wonāt be easy in an operation of limited duration. And as we have seen repeatedly in last two decades, decapitation of terrorist leadership is rarely decisive
Objective 3. Destroy Hamas Command & Control capability. Always sounds easy as a sound bite. Much harder in reality against any force which is adept at fighting a dispersed, decentralised, hit and run style campaign
Objective 4. Degrade Hamas logistical ability / means of waging war. Should be easy enough to do, temporarily, although proved largely unachievable against Hezbollah in 2006. And even if successful in short term, the impact is only going to be temporary
Obective 5. Destroy the āGaza Metroā - the extraordinary labyrinth of Hamas tunnels running underneath Gaza. Feasible, given enough time and manpower, but again will only be temporary unless IDF plan to occupy Gaza indefinitely. Unlikely
Objective 6. Deter Hezbollah. Arguably this should be Military Strategic Objective #1. No one wants to fight a war on two fronts, not least Israel. If Hezbollah open a northern front, itās hard to see the IDF being able to sustain a major operation in Gaza
Can they achieve these objectives? Probably not in a war of limited duration. 2006 war lasted 34 days. 2009 22 days. 2014 7 weeks. Hard to envision international support for Israel enduring, given apparent IDF disregard for the rules of war
Not unreasonable to expect a ceasefire within a month or two. Chances are that IDF will not have achieved even some of their objectives. Leaving everyone questioning what it was all about & asking who actually won. Just another episode in the perpetual cycle of violence
Unlessā¦of courseā¦thereās a better political outcome to this war. After all the purpose of war is to achieve a better peace. Thereās no military solution. Thatās obvious
Hamas wonāt be military defeated and even if they are itās possible that theyāll be replaced by something similar until such time as a political solution to the cycle of violence is reached. Letās just hope thatās soon. Because war isnāt the solution
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