𝔗𝔥𝔬𝔱𝔥🇪🇬
𝔗𝔥𝔬𝔱𝔥🇪🇬

@TheEgyAnalysis

7 Tweets 4 reads Oct 21, 2023
IDF's impending ground invasion of Gaza will be very, very hard. We are looking at a ground invasion from several areas where the majority of air support will be limited in close quarters. Are we looking at a mini Vietnam? (A Small Thread)..
Currently, the Isreali bombing is not random. It's targeted upon specific areas, shaping the area of operation for a future ground invasion..
We are looking at very dense urban combat, with columns of mechanised infantry walking into tight areas with mines, which can disrupt the entirety of the whole column, which makes it even more viable for ambushes
It's interesting to highlight that Hamas can utilise artillery, mortar & drones on any approaching columns.
(Diagrams courtesy of @JonHawkes275)
At this point, IDF personnel will be facing an opponent with much higher expertise in urban combat & hit & run tactics. In addition to the fact of high density of mechanised troops & and personnel, which means reduced mobility.
Hamas also has a high amount of anti-tank weaponry, including RPGs at a close range and Kornets (look below)
It's also important to highlight the role of the reportedly sophisticated tunnel network, which is operated by Hamas.
This also means that Hamas will be enjoying higher mobility than IDF personnel in the area of operations, Hamas is also familiar with the Merkava & its weak points & will constantly be utilising the tunnels to try and capture IDF personnel, which will undoubtedly impact IDF morale.
Now given the fact that CQB (close quarter combat) will take the lion's share in the upcoming confrontations between Hamas & IDF personnel, its hard to understand how the IAF will be able to provide air support unless in pre designated targets before commencing the invasion or in a safe area away from the advancing personnel.
This operation will also not be continuing in one direction, we will be witnessing some small movement back & forth to allow for close air support to be provided. Which means that the IDF will be taking its time with no rush.
(Map highlighting Gaza population density below)
According to the Isreali finance minister @bezalelsm, not much regard will be made for isreali hostages being held during the operation. Which adds up to the political cost of this operation to the current isreali goverment.
Without a doubt, regardless of the result of this operation, the political cost will be too high, most probably it will end up as a huge political failure for the current radical right wing Isreali goverment trifecta Ben-Gvir, Smotrych & Netanyahu...
Now since Egypt rejects completely any displacement of Gazans into the Sinai, its important to highlight that the impending isreali military invasion (if it happens) will have to take frequent pauses to allow for the entry of Humanitarian aid, also medical aid & personnel.
If not, this will result in an even worse wave of displacement in the direction towards the Egyptian borders, and thus creating safe zones, hospitals in southern Gaza will be of outmost importance to prevent a full displacement wave with massive numbers towards the Egyptian Rafah crossing..
It's also important to mention a couple of points...
1)The over reliance of the IDF on artillery in this operation, since close air support will not be able to operate with Ease in this tight urban combat & the risk estimate distance.
2)chance of the entrance of other players in the North, like Hezbollah in the region into this conflict on the onset of the invasion, which might cause an even more disruption for the IDF...

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