1/23 In the past 4 years, signs of an India-Pakistan reconciliation with China's help have been impossible to ignore.
Check out this thread for the evidence.
Check out this thread for the evidence.
2/23 For the past eight years, President Xi has been making efforts to persuade India to join his pet initiative, the BRI. The key to the success of the BRI lies in India opening up the southern historical silk route, connecting India to Europe via Iran.
3/23 In the past five years, India has constructed a vast amount of infrastructure and roads, connecting regions from Kolkata in eastern India to Punjab. However, these roads lead to nowhere unless they are connected to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) via Pakistan.
4/23 Ever since China deployed its army to the Indian border and occupied approximately 20,000 square kilometers of Indian territory, notable changes have been observed in the actions and words of the Indian government concerning Pakistan, G7, and China.
5/23 Indian imports from China have bludgeoned from $75B in 2019 to $120B in 2022. Comparatively US exports merely grew from $35B to $47B. And most of US export growth is primarily in Petroleum while China imports have grown across all categories.
6/23 Pakistan Army has bought back Nawaz Sharif an openly Pro India face into Pakistan Polity, ostensibly as next PM candidate. Nawaz is a perfect candidate to lead rapprochement efforts between two countries.
7/23 In past year, over a dozen key anti-India militants, living in safe havens in Pakistan for decades, have been eliminated under mysterious circumstances: many other going underground. This points towards an understanding between ISI and R&AW indiatoday.in
8/23 Cricketing ties have always mirrored the relationship between countries. After 15 long years, India and Pakistan have resumed their cricketing rivalry. The Indian media is buzzing with excitement over the Pakistani cricket team's return to the pitch!
thediplomat.com
thediplomat.com
9/23 India has recently resumed visa services for Pakistani nationals, after two decades of non-existence. Interestingly, the Indian media has shifted its focus from constant anti-Pakistan rhetoric to criticizing Western nations such as Canada, America, and the Sikh Diaspora.
10/23 Pakistan media has responded in kind and has shifted to blaming America for conducting disturbances with Pakistan using Taliban proxies. Next couple of tweets explain how America backed Taliban and not India has become number one threat for Pakistan.
11/23 Since the departure of Americans from Afghanistan, leaving behind a multi-billion-dollar arsenal as a "gift," there has been a significant surge in attacks on the Pakistani army and CPEC projects by Taliban proxies. voanews.com
12/23 Taliban is now directly engaged with the American security establishment, bypassing the need for a middleman like Pakistan. This has sparked paranoia within Pakistani civil society, leading to discussions about the possibility of an Afghan invasion.
13/23 A resurgent Taliban, armed with American weaponry, poses a threat not only to Pakistan but also to Chinese and Indian interests. All three countries view Afghanistan as their backyard and do not prioritize granting agency to the Afghan people.
14/23 In this context, the recent action taken by Pakistan to expel over a million Afghans from its country is of great interest to geopolitical analysts. The suddenness of the move and its unexplained nature make it appear desperate. nytimes.com
15/23 What is even more surprising is the reaction of the Indian media and government to these developments. In comparison to similar incidents in Pakistan, the Indian media has remained suspiciously quiet on this one. Appears they have orders to remain quiet.
16/23 While Americans have expressed frustration with Pakistan for various reasons, the Indian support for Russia during the Ukraine conflict has particularly shaken them. India not only funded the Russian campaign but also aligned itself with BRICS against the wishes of the West
17/23 The Indo-Pacific Strategy has been empty rhetoric, while China continues to expand its options and influence. Formation of AUKUS, excluding India from the Quad alliance, indicated a lack of trust in India by the Americans. thehindu.com
18/23 In addition, it is worth noting Pakistan's efforts over the last 15 years to decrease its reliance on American weapon systems. The same for India, which has consistently declined offers to purchase American weapons systems, even when presented with enticing deals.
19/23 Connecting these dots, lead to one conclusion. Both India and Pakistan are working behind the scenes to pave the way for India to cooperate with China on BRI. Both are wary of the American Establishment and are more in Chinese orbit.
20/23 This move has severely restricted America's options. Yet, there is a cheap alternative: The Taliban. Supporting these fighters doesn't take much effort. In this new geopolitical game, the big question is what roles the Sikhs will play.
21/23 Sikhs, the martial race caught between India and Pakistan for seven decades with values identical to those enshrined in Bill of Rights. Once rulers of the North Western Region, are they now part of this play? Time will tell.
22/23 Enjoyed this thread? Follow me on:
Twitter: @moksha0013
Spotify: tinyurl.com
Apple Podcast: tinyurl.com
Like/Report the quote below if you can:
Twitter: @moksha0013
Spotify: tinyurl.com
Apple Podcast: tinyurl.com
Like/Report the quote below if you can:
23/23 You can read the unrolled version of this thread here: typefully.com
@KyleSeraphin @nytimes @washingtonpost @professor_TopK @rwac48 @PravinSawhney tagging some other analysts interested in geopolitics of the region.
Loading suggestions...