Understand this and you'll outperform 95% of other investors: the crypto 4-year cycle!
What is the crypto 4-year cycle? What is each stage about? When to buy and when to sell?
A thread π§΅
BOOKMARK THIS TO COME BACK TO THIS LATER π
What is the crypto 4-year cycle? What is each stage about? When to buy and when to sell?
A thread π§΅
BOOKMARK THIS TO COME BACK TO THIS LATER π
Every ~4 years a full cycle plays out entirely. Why does this happen every 4 years? Why so fast?
β’ Reason 1: Bitcoin halving. Supply shock happens and this triggers the price to go up
β’ Reason 2: crypto is a young market
β’ Reason 3: mass psychology effect
β’ Reason 1: Bitcoin halving. Supply shock happens and this triggers the price to go up
β’ Reason 2: crypto is a young market
β’ Reason 3: mass psychology effect
Year 1 (blue box): accumulation year
β’ Bear market low is in
β’ Market recovers a bit and stabilizes
β’ Often some kind of sideways movement
β’ Interest in crypto is low
β’ Bear market low is in
β’ Market recovers a bit and stabilizes
β’ Often some kind of sideways movement
β’ Interest in crypto is low
Year 2 (green box): pre bull
β’ Year of the $BTC halving
β’ Price is going towards the previous all-time high
β’ Interest in crypto starts going up slowly
β’ Year of the $BTC halving
β’ Price is going towards the previous all-time high
β’ Interest in crypto starts going up slowly
Year 3 (orange box): bull market
β’ Parabolic stage
β’ Price goes up exponentially
β’ Interest in crypto is high, everyone wants to get in
β’ Parabolic stage
β’ Price goes up exponentially
β’ Interest in crypto is high, everyone wants to get in
Year 4 (red box): bear market
β’ Prijs goes down strongly
β’ Price of Bitcoin historically goes down with 75% or more
β’ Interest disappears. Retail investors panic sell and walk away
β’ Prijs goes down strongly
β’ Price of Bitcoin historically goes down with 75% or more
β’ Interest disappears. Retail investors panic sell and walk away
Evolution:
β’ Price increases become smaller
β’ Price decreases become smaller
-> Signals of a maturing asset class
β’ Price increases become smaller
β’ Price decreases become smaller
-> Signals of a maturing asset class
Cycle 1 (half a cycle):
β’ 100,000% increase from bottom
β’ 94% decrease from top to new bottom
Cycle 2:
β’ 58,000% increase
β’ 86% decrease
Cycle 3:
β’ 12,500% increase
β’ 83% decrease
Cycle 4:
β’ 2000% increase
β’ 78% decrease
Cycle 5: ?
β’ 100,000% increase from bottom
β’ 94% decrease from top to new bottom
Cycle 2:
β’ 58,000% increase
β’ 86% decrease
Cycle 3:
β’ 12,500% increase
β’ 83% decrease
Cycle 4:
β’ 2000% increase
β’ 78% decrease
Cycle 5: ?
When to buy?
The accumulation stage is the most recognizable stage. The bottom is clearly in, price is chilling and panic goes away. Make an entry plan to start scaling in via immediate buys or via DCA-strategy. DON'T TRY TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE DURING THE BEAR MARKET.
The accumulation stage is the most recognizable stage. The bottom is clearly in, price is chilling and panic goes away. Make an entry plan to start scaling in via immediate buys or via DCA-strategy. DON'T TRY TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE DURING THE BEAR MARKET.
When to sell?
During the parabolic stage you can start scaling out of the markets. Make an exit plan and gradually scale out. Make the plan based on targets for Bitcoin, your biggest altcoins and time based targets (as a hedge). I'll make a thread and video about this later.
During the parabolic stage you can start scaling out of the markets. Make an exit plan and gradually scale out. Make the plan based on targets for Bitcoin, your biggest altcoins and time based targets (as a hedge). I'll make a thread and video about this later.
βBut Quinten, if everyone understands this, it wonβt play out anymore?β
Human psychology is a science. It doesnβt change. A lot of people who will read this thread will still get caught in the greed during the bull market and the fear during the accumulation year. A market cycle is nothing more than human psychology visualized in a chart. This will not change. Take advantage of this knowledge.
Human psychology is a science. It doesnβt change. A lot of people who will read this thread will still get caught in the greed during the bull market and the fear during the accumulation year. A market cycle is nothing more than human psychology visualized in a chart. This will not change. Take advantage of this knowledge.
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