Some key takeaways from the verdict. 🧵
1. The 400 paar slogan could have been a self goal - both because it set expectations too high, and because it enabled the opposition to raise the "Constitution in Danger" issue. This had a major impact on Dalit voters, especially in UP.
The Opposition leapt on this issue and leveraged it all through the polls.

2. Unemployment is probably the biggest problem in India, and must be the number one priority for the next government. Even BJP voters kept mentioning unemployment - except that they felt Modi was the best person to fix it.
Schemes like "free grain" alone don't compensate for unemployment - young people say they want work, not charity.

3. The "Hindu-Muslim" narrative appeals inside an echo-chamber and to a core base that is already committed. However, it seems to be losing its broader electoral value for the BJP - look at the results in UP, the home of "bulldozer baba", in West Bengal, in Banswara where that speech was made, and even in Ayodhya. The BJP swept Odisha with little said on "Hindu-Muslim"

4. Modi remains the most popular politician. But while the BJP wanted the polls to be a "Modi vs who?" referendum, the Opposition succeeded in turning this into an "aggregation of state elections". As @pradip103 and I discussed on the show last week - a "referendum" could lead to 300+, "aggregated state elections" to 240-250. That was the final number

5. The Indian economy and the markets should be fine. If you asked most businessmen (off-the-record!) they would tell you that their ideal scenario would be a Modi Government with its vision and execution, but somewhat weakened so that you had checks & balances and no "fear factor". Well, that seems to be what they have got!

6. I was somewhat surprised to find that civil liberties, democracy and individual rights matter far more to the "aam aadmi" than you imagine. It is not just an urban middle class matter. Many expressed anger at not feeling able to speak freely. And btw, not speaking freely may have had an impact on why the exit polls got it wrong.

7. Yes, the woman voter is all important now. And the schemes that the urban elite dismisses as "freebies" make a real difference to her life, and to her family. However, gratitude and hence voting on the basis of those schemes could either be towards the centre or the state. In West Bengal for eg it was the TMC that won the majority of seats where women outvoted men.