Paulo Macro
Speculation is the search for truth in price and time. Not investment advice - just personal views. Blog at https://t.co/DD2iUKbdLz
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Much attention has been drawn to how the move in bonds has been purely nominal taking real rates higher as inflation expectations remain contained …whoops did I say contained?? 😂 s...
Equity outlook 🧵 For those reading and following my day to day… 1/9 https://t.co/js2hFZ2GUo
Look here’s the problem with the recession crew owning long-dated USTs and duration (these include several i know and respect). 🧵 You can’t have it both ways. US is running 6-8% d...
Thread on financial bank plumbing, so that the repo/rate experts can all go nuts and tell me how dumb I am. Let’s go. So it’s getting interesting in the whole TGA/RRP/bank reserve...
Hey copper trades $3.60… -15% since January. Ok?? -11% in a month!! “Dire.” “Supercontango.” Western demand is finally cracking. China is detonating - nobody buys real estate anymo...
USD. Some clarification on my views is required because I get a lot of questions and confusion here - “wait you are bearish into, or bearish after the debt ceiling? But does that r...
There’s an argument going on about what happens to the USD on the other side of the debt ceiling, with many thinking it should rally because of the Risk Off that gets forced on all...
While I fully concede that when I see “Dollar will Die and we Brics don’t need it” astroturfing, and Brent Jonhson @SantiagoAuFund isn’t being invited on every financial podcast an...
A thread on where the US stands in its ongoing desire to learn Portuguese🧵 My bro @hkuppy has flagged an interesting development that I hadn’t fully appreciated in the context of...
This is great Sam. Just a minor difference in view from my end (talking my book here, so a big grain of salt to go with my 2 cents): 1/22 https://t.co/AjQbKEH6aA
I find it ironic that many fintwitters thought the Bolsonaro November protests in Brazil were going to result in some coup rather than just a silly clownshow attempt at Jan 6th. As...
As we focus on our families, I thought I would relay some thoughts I put together after speaking for a few hours with an old friend today. Framework time - a thread. 1/19