Michael Pettis
Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment. For speaking engagements, please contact me at chinfinpettis@yahoo.com
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1/7 China's GDP growth in the second quarter was a disappointing 6.3% year on year. Because of the terrible performance over the same period last year, different consensus estimate...
1/8 Rising US debt is indeed a problem, but the way to resolve it isn't by cutting back on government spending, and it certainly isn't by cutting back on government investment. The...
1/10 Thanks to Pekingnology for translating a speech by Fudan University’s Zhang Jun that explains very well why China must adjust its growth model, and how. Zhang recognizes very...
1/5 We shouldn't be surprised that measure after measure to stabilize and revive the property market has failed. In a highly speculative market, what drives buying is mainly expect...
1/10 I don't think industrial policy can only be "successful" if its policies are implemented precisely to maximize certain well-defined economic goals, or even (and this will be c...
1/4 Good article on how trade works: "Chinese EVs are high quality, though their price competitiveness has benefited from a decade of protectionism and government support totalling...
1/7 "The yen is so weak — worth 25 per cent less than two years ago — because Japan’s exporters have lost their past competitiveness," the author notes. It will continue weakening...
1/5 "“It’s like a declaration of war,” Robert Habeck, Germany’s vice-chancellor and economics minister, said last month." There's no hypocrite like a free-trade hypocrite. https:...
1/3 No big surprises on the trade data. Exports in June fell 12.4% relative to last June (due partly to base effects: last June's exports were the third highest monthly exports on...
1/3 The "long-awaited real estate market stabilization policy" unveiled this week, known as "the fourth arrow", seems mainly to be an extension of maturing real-estate loans to the...
1/6 One of the least-appreciated aspects of the increase in US investment driven by Biden's industrial policies is how it transforms the structure of the US trade deficit. https:/...
1/ "The banks say the March crisis reflected a failure of some bank managers and regulators—not a systemic lack of capital, and that higher capital rules will cause them to hold ba...