Coronavirus:
Why You Must Act Now
By: Tomas Pueyo
Countries that act fast reduce the number of deaths at least by 10x.
The true number of coronavirus cases in France today is likely to be between 24,000 and 140,000.
Why You Must Act Now
By: Tomas Pueyo
Countries that act fast reduce the number of deaths at least by 10x.
The true number of coronavirus cases in France today is likely to be between 24,000 and 140,000.
With the number of cases we see today in countries like the US, Spain, France, Iran, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden or Switzerland, Wuhan was already in lockdown.
what does a country need to be prepared?
what does a country need to be prepared?
Around 20% of cases require hospitalization, 5% of cases require the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and around 1% require very intensive help, with items such as ventilators or ECMO (extra-corporeal oxygenation).
If we reduce the infections as much as possible, our healthcare system will be able to handle cases much better, driving the fatality rate down. And, if we spread this over time, we will reach a point where the rest of society can be vaccinated, eliminating the risk altogether.
The more we postpone cases, the better the healthcare system can function, the lower the mortality rate, and the higher the share of the population that will be vaccinated before it gets infected.
The only way to truly reduce that is with social distancing: Keeping people home as much as possible, for as long as possible until this recedes.
How Can Politicians Contribute to Social Distancing?
The question politicians are asking themselves today is not whether they should do something, but rather what’s the appropriate action to take.
The question politicians are asking themselves today is not whether they should do something, but rather what’s the appropriate action to take.
There are several stages to control an epidemic, starting with anticipation and ending with eradication. But it’s too late for most options today. With this level of cases, the two only options politicians have in front of them are containment and mitigation.
> Containment is making sure all the cases are identified, controlled, and isolated. It’s what Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan or Taiwan are doing so well: They very quickly limit people coming in, identify the sick, immediately isolate them,
use heavy protective gear to protect their health workers, track all their contacts, quarantine them… This works extremely well when you’re prepared and you do it early on, and don’t need to grind your economy to a halt to make it happen.
Once there are hundreds or thousands of cases growing in the population, preventing more from coming, tracking the existing ones and isolating their contacts isn’t enough anymore. The next level is mitigation.
> Mitigation requires heavy social distancing. People need to stop hanging out to drop the transmission rate (R), from the R=~2–3 that the virus follows without measures, to below 1, so that it eventually dies out.
These measures require closing companies, shops, mass transit, schools, enforcing lockdowns… The worse your situation, the worse the social distancing.
The earlier you impose heavy measures, the less time you need to keep them, the easier it is to identify brewing cases, and the fewer people get infected.
This is what Wuhan had to do. This is what Italy was forced to accept. Because when the virus is rampant, the only measure is to all the infected areas to stop spreading it at once.
So the question becomes: What are the tradeoffs we could be making to lower the R? This is the menu that Italy has put in front of all of us:
* Nobody can enter or exit lockdown areas, unless there are proven family or work reasons.
* Nobody can enter or exit lockdown areas, unless there are proven family or work reasons.
* Movement inside the areas is to be avoided, unless they are justified for urgent personal or work reasons and can’t be postponed.
* People with symptoms (respiratory infection and fever) are “highly recommended” to remain home.
* People with symptoms (respiratory infection and fever) are “highly recommended” to remain home.
* Standard time off for healthcare workers is suspended
* Closure of all educational establishments (schools, universities…), gyms, museums, ski stations, cultural and social centers, swimming pools, and theaters.
* Closure of all educational establishments (schools, universities…), gyms, museums, ski stations, cultural and social centers, swimming pools, and theaters.
* Bars and restaurants have limited opening times from 6am to 6pm, with at least one meter (~3 feet) distance between people.
* All pubs and clubs must close.
* All pubs and clubs must close.
* All commercial activity must keep a distance of one meter between customers. Those that can’t make it happen must close. Temples can remain open as long as they can guarantee this distance.
* Family and friends hospital visits are limited
* Family and friends hospital visits are limited
* Work meetings must be postponed. Work from home must be encouraged.
* All sports events and competitions, public or private, are canceled. Important events can be held under closed doors.
* All sports events and competitions, public or private, are canceled. Important events can be held under closed doors.
Then two days later, they added: No, in fact, you need to close all businesses that aren’t crucial. So now we’re closing all commercial activities, offices, cafes and shops. Only transportation, pharmacies, groceries will remain open.”
One approach is to gradually increase measures. Unfortunately, that gives precious time for the virus to spread. If you want to be safe, do it Wuhan style. People might complain now, but they’ll thank you later.
This is an exponential threat. Every day counts. When you’re delaying by a single day a decision, you’re not contributing to a few cases maybe. There are probably hundreds or thousands of cases in your community already.
Every day that there isn’t social distancing, these cases grow exponentially.
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