Short thread on why Egyptian policymakers are closely following internal developments in #Ethiopia? Egyptians have no ill intentions but are concerned whether the @AbiyAhmedAli government has the capacity to sign a #GERD agreement & be able to honor it. Why do I say that? 1/
All previous agreements & treaties remain binding & in force. Example of #Ethiopia’s worrisome precedent of signing agreements & not honoring them is the 1993 General Framework for Cooperation re: Nile River, signed by Ethiopia’s late-prime minister Meles Zenawi. 3/
In 1902 Emperor Menelik signed the Anglo-Ethiopian treaty, prohibiting construction of any waterworks across Blue Nile affecting natural flow of waters. Ethiopians say it is a colonial treaty, even though they were NOT colonized & signed it free of any compulsion or coercion. 4/
In 2015 #Ethiopia‘s PM Desalegn signed the Declaration of Principles with #Sudan & #Egypt, yet again the current Ethiopian government of @AbiyAhmedAli seems to completely ignore & violate one of its most important articles: the Principle Not to Cause Significant Harm. 5/
There are legitimate questions re: #Ethiopia’s domestic unrest. Will future government honor a #GERD agreement if @AbiyAhmedAli is ousted? Is current gov’t a credible partner that could deliver a deal midst mass-protests? How would a possible civil war affect #GERD agreement? 6/
Unfortunately the #Ethiopia based @_AfricanUnion, has been politicized, making in my view the UN Security Council the appropriate Int’l body for playing a constructive & neutral role by holding #Ethiopia accountable to its international legal obligations. 10/
Even though Ethiopians have expressed hatred on social media (mostly state-sponsored Twitter bots) I will end this thread by expressing my best wishes to the Ethiopian people & my sincere condolences to the families who have lost loved ones midst the mass-protests & unrest. *END*
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