IDF jets are reported at low to medium altitude over south Lebanon.
If we know somethings for sure is that Hezbullah will attempt to attack when the opportunity arises, but any failed sniper attack like August 27 will lead to a harsher IDF attack to force Hezbullah not to try again. 1/
Hezbullah with another failed sniper attack will have to abandon its attempt to just kill one soldier and might have to take a further step to attack that might cause several deaths instead of one. This will make the IDF response even harsher but will preserve detternece. 2/
However the most important thing is the type of the IDF response. Hitting empty border posts is unlikely now, and this is obvious due to the flight patterns of their airforce. But, any attack on Hezbullah personnel or Hezbullah HQs or warehouses will further escalate things. 3/
The purpose of this deterrence is to deter Israel from attacking any position in Lebanon. And this has been the case since 2006 but the last response to attack some posts for an NGO affiliated to Hezbullah sends Hezbullah a different message. 4/
According to my observation, Hezbullah will keep attacking till an IDF soldier is killed or critically injuried. IDF will moderately attack empty posts of the NGO, until Hezbullah manages to kill or injure a soldier
Then it will attempt to kill the cell and strike a local HQ. 5/
Then it will attempt to kill the cell and strike a local HQ. 5/
This attack, whether IDF kills any Hezbullah or not, Hezbullah will not accept any material damage on its side so a limited strike back will happen. Where and how? Well the IDF border posts are perfect targets for mortars and 107mm. 6/
Will this escalate to a war? No because schools in Israel started. Simple as that. The Israeli leadership can't disrupt the civilian life now and can't handle hundreds of thousands of IDPs during COVID-19.
if no schools and no COVID-19, it was likely yes. END
if no schools and no COVID-19, it was likely yes. END
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