In regards to the #CapitolCoup, I’m in a unique position. I monitored forums ahead of time and then was present for the coup itself.
These are my observations based on what I saw and the evidence that’s been collected so far. I reserve the right to adjust my analysis as needed.
These are my observations based on what I saw and the evidence that’s been collected so far. I reserve the right to adjust my analysis as needed.
Let’s talk about the organization of the coup first. Seeing some people insist that the coup must have been highly planned and coordinated.
Yes and no. This was a #StochasticCoup. We’ll see little evidence of direct communication between Trump and the insurrectionists.
Yes and no. This was a #StochasticCoup. We’ll see little evidence of direct communication between Trump and the insurrectionists.
Within the insurrectionists, there was not one group that executed the storming of the Capitol.
Rather, there were a number of smaller groups working independently towards the same goal. I expect you’ll see little evidence that these various groups communicated with each other.
Rather, there were a number of smaller groups working independently towards the same goal. I expect you’ll see little evidence that these various groups communicated with each other.
What you will see is detailed planning and coordination within these small groups.
Then there were the joyriders, those Trump supporters who weren’t directly involved in any plotting but who were more than happy to go along for the ride once the coup was in motion.
Then there were the joyriders, those Trump supporters who weren’t directly involved in any plotting but who were more than happy to go along for the ride once the coup was in motion.
After four years, the insurrectionists were carefully attuned to Trump’s messaging.
Every tweet and statement of his was treated as marching orders and carefully dissected for meaning.
It’s why shutting down Trump’s Twitter account was so important.
Every tweet and statement of his was treated as marching orders and carefully dissected for meaning.
It’s why shutting down Trump’s Twitter account was so important.
Here are additional screenshots of Trump supporters interpreting Trump’s “Wild Protest” tweets.
This is stochastic terrorism in action.
This is stochastic terrorism in action.
And it wasn’t just Trump who was stochastically priming Trump supporters for violence on 1/6.
There were a number of “spicy memes” that served to reinforce Trump’s messaging.
There were a number of “spicy memes” that served to reinforce Trump’s messaging.
Not to mention this.
They weren’t exactly being subtle.
They weren’t exactly being subtle.
Another example of stochastic priming. Have a good laugh about the crazy Antifa conspiracy theories, then listen at about the two minute mark for some detailed instructions on how best to infiltrate the Capitol.
m.youtube.com
m.youtube.com
You can see how Trump was able to incite an insurrection without ever directly communicating with the coup plotters.
I think there may have been one or two exceptions to this which I’ll go into later.
I think there may have been one or two exceptions to this which I’ll go into later.
Now, how well-planned was this coup?
There doesn’t seem to have been a plan. Rather, there were a series of competing plans, notions, and ideas.
The first one was the idea of a siege. Surround Congress and don’t let them leave until they’ve certified Trump as the winner.
There doesn’t seem to have been a plan. Rather, there were a series of competing plans, notions, and ideas.
The first one was the idea of a siege. Surround Congress and don’t let them leave until they’ve certified Trump as the winner.
If you’re an intelligence analyst, btw, the letter to the Folger Library should’ve been a huge red flag that the insurrectionists were serious about their plan.
No one takes time out of their busy day to write an apology letter to the Folger Shakespeare Library just for funsies.
No one takes time out of their busy day to write an apology letter to the Folger Shakespeare Library just for funsies.
The second idea or notion was straight up storming the Capitol.
The third was this idea of triggering a Civil War, so that even if the coup plot failed, it would unleash a series of events that would lead to the extermination of the Communists (anyone who opposes Trump is a Commie) and the certification of Trump as the election winner.
There was also this near fixation on the tunnels of DC and making sure members of Congress were prevented from escaping.
Note the last screenshot also makes a request that anyone who works at the Capitol leave a gate open on 1/6.
Note the last screenshot also makes a request that anyone who works at the Capitol leave a gate open on 1/6.
Finally, there was the idea of a citizens arrest or hanging for any treasonous members of Congress who refused to certify Trump as the winner of the election.
You might have noticed some gaps in these plans.
Believing in conspiracy theories forces you to accept logic gaps, which likely led to the coup plotters not being able to spot the gaping holes in their plans to get Trump certified as the winner.
And remember, that was the goal.
Believing in conspiracy theories forces you to accept logic gaps, which likely led to the coup plotters not being able to spot the gaping holes in their plans to get Trump certified as the winner.
And remember, that was the goal.
Interestingly, some of the other Trump supporters in these forums noticed the shoddy planning.
A few other screenshots of interest.
One is a breakdown, by the insurrectionists themselves, of some of the factions that would be present at the Trump rally.
The other is an attempt to outline a coherent plan to force Trump to be certified the election winner.
One is a breakdown, by the insurrectionists themselves, of some of the factions that would be present at the Trump rally.
The other is an attempt to outline a coherent plan to force Trump to be certified the election winner.
I’m going to take a break, then look at how these plans, ideas, and notions were or were not carried through on 1/6.
One huge disclaimer: These sorts of plans were all over the MAGA-verse.
We have no idea if the individuals quoted here took any part in the actual coup attempt.
One huge disclaimer: These sorts of plans were all over the MAGA-verse.
We have no idea if the individuals quoted here took any part in the actual coup attempt.
And we’re back! I wanted to add a few notes before moving on to 1/6 itself.
In the week prior to the coup attempt, there was a marked shift against the police.
Forum commentators went from suggesting police stay home to blithely talking about killing cops.
In the week prior to the coup attempt, there was a marked shift against the police.
Forum commentators went from suggesting police stay home to blithely talking about killing cops.
I wonder if the police pushback of Proud Boys and insurrectionist elements in Oregon around the New Year had something to do with that.
I’ve been getting questions about how the FBI and other law enforcement could have possibly missed this.
There are two parts to intelligence: Data collection and threat analysis.
I have no doubt the FBI had all this information and more at their fingertips.
There are two parts to intelligence: Data collection and threat analysis.
I have no doubt the FBI had all this information and more at their fingertips.
Where they failed was in how they acted upon that information.
They looked at it and decided there wasn’t a threat. Most likely because the purpose of law enforcement is still to defend the white power structure.
Through that lens, Trump supporters wouldn’t be seen as a danger.
They looked at it and decided there wasn’t a threat. Most likely because the purpose of law enforcement is still to defend the white power structure.
Through that lens, Trump supporters wouldn’t be seen as a danger.
There is a second, very real possibility.
That Trump and his cronies pressured law enforcement to downplay the threat in order to leave the Capitol vulnerable to attack.
That Trump and his cronies pressured law enforcement to downplay the threat in order to leave the Capitol vulnerable to attack.
Now let’s move on to January 6.
Reviewing the footage from that day, it seems clear to me that this attempted coup should never have succeeded as much as it did.
It was botched from the beginning and only the repeated failures of the Capitol Police saved it.
Reviewing the footage from that day, it seems clear to me that this attempted coup should never have succeeded as much as it did.
It was botched from the beginning and only the repeated failures of the Capitol Police saved it.
The first issue was numbers. If you look at the screenshots posted above, most of the coup plotters had vastly unrealistic estimates of rally attendance.
Many thought they’d get over a million. Even the realists in the group estimated between 50,000-100,000.
Many thought they’d get over a million. Even the realists in the group estimated between 50,000-100,000.
Rally attendance was somewhere around 20,000. Of those, as it turns out, only a fraction wanted to participate in a coup.
Here’s video taken about 10-15 minutes before protesters rushed the Capitol. You can hear how frustrated the organizer is.
Here’s video taken about 10-15 minutes before protesters rushed the Capitol. You can hear how frustrated the organizer is.
From the start, the plotters had made a major miscalculation and had far less manpower than they expected.
Here’s when the protesters stormed the Capitol grounds. According to the time stamp on my phone, this happened at 12:55pm.
Here’s when the protesters stormed the Capitol grounds. According to the time stamp on my phone, this happened at 12:55pm.
Notice a couple things:
1) Where’s the police?
2) Where’s the barricades/fencing around the Capitol?! During impeachment last year, Capitol police were able to hastily erect a fence on the other side of the Capitol that made protesting in large numbers difficult
1) Where’s the police?
2) Where’s the barricades/fencing around the Capitol?! During impeachment last year, Capitol police were able to hastily erect a fence on the other side of the Capitol that made protesting in large numbers difficult
Here’s four minutes into the storming of the Capitol. It’s hard to see, but you have a handful of police moving around the inauguration set-up above the crowd.
The crowd isn’t THAT big. The police are well-positioned to repel them with less lethals, but they don’t.
The crowd isn’t THAT big. The police are well-positioned to repel them with less lethals, but they don’t.
Any plans for a siege have gone out the window. The crowds have jumped the gun and just run at the Capitol.
Here we are at the 1:08 mark. Again, where are the police?
Here we are at the 1:08 mark. Again, where are the police?
Shortly thereafter, at 1:11pm, you start to hear a guy shout, “Move forward! The guys in front need help.”
No tactics, no strategy and as you can see, still not a massive crowd.
No tactics, no strategy and as you can see, still not a massive crowd.
A minute later, Capitol Police use a spritz of what I believe is pepper spray on some of the protesters.
It has an immediate effect and some of them retreat.
It has an immediate effect and some of them retreat.
Most people panic the first time they’re exposed to pepper spray.
These weren’t seasoned protesters. The guy shouting, “Move forward!” starting calling for goggles.
While some of the coup plotters were outfitted like Red Dawn extras, many people there were unprepared.
These weren’t seasoned protesters. The guy shouting, “Move forward!” starting calling for goggles.
While some of the coup plotters were outfitted like Red Dawn extras, many people there were unprepared.
At 1:14pm, police reinforcements can be seen arriving. But again, where is their gear?
Anyone who has any familiarity with DC understands how surreal this situation is.
You have a relatively manageable crowd that could be dispersed with less lethals and the police just..aren’t.
Anyone who has any familiarity with DC understands how surreal this situation is.
You have a relatively manageable crowd that could be dispersed with less lethals and the police just..aren’t.
At 1:21pm, 26 minutes after protesters first stormed the Capitol grounds!!, the crowd starts chucking objects at the Capitol Police.
I prepared to run, as throwing so much as a plastic water bottle at the police can trigger a barrage of tear gas and rubber bullets.
I prepared to run, as throwing so much as a plastic water bottle at the police can trigger a barrage of tear gas and rubber bullets.
There was no need to run. 🙃
If you’re wearing a red cap, apparently you can throw whatever you want at the police.
You can hear the “Move Forward” guy getting frustrated.
I walked away to upload some videos and to avoid the barrage of tear gas I was sure was coming.
If you’re wearing a red cap, apparently you can throw whatever you want at the police.
You can hear the “Move Forward” guy getting frustrated.
I walked away to upload some videos and to avoid the barrage of tear gas I was sure was coming.
While I was uploading video, a few puffs of tear gas were deployed.
From news reports, it was around 2pm, over an hour after protesters first stormed the Capitol grounds, that they were able to breach the Capitol itself.
wusa9.com
From news reports, it was around 2pm, over an hour after protesters first stormed the Capitol grounds, that they were able to breach the Capitol itself.
wusa9.com
Interestingly, this clip of a guy shouting, “It’s time to come back with our guns and leave the women at the house!” happened exactly at 2pm.
I move closer to the Capitol building. I keep away from the main crowd as I’m convinced, having attended many BLM protests, that at any moment the police will unleash hell and I’ll have to make a run for it.
Spoiler: I never had to make a run for it.
There’s cheering now.
Spoiler: I never had to make a run for it.
There’s cheering now.
At 2:15pm, I overhear a protester excitedly say that they’ve almost breached the door on the other side of the building.
I follow a handful of guys up the hill to the east side of the Capitol.
Note that once again, someone’s trying to rally the crowd to action and few respond.
I follow a handful of guys up the hill to the east side of the Capitol.
Note that once again, someone’s trying to rally the crowd to action and few respond.
This is the south side of the Capitol, as we walk up the hill to get to where the door is supposedly about to be breached. It’s only a short clip, but do you see any police?
This was taken at 2:17pm.
This was taken at 2:17pm.
There’s the police! Finally.
The doors on the west side of the building have been breached. Crowds are attempting to breach doors on the east side while the Speaker of the House, Vice-President, and countless members of Congress are inside and...
The police are standing there.
The doors on the west side of the building have been breached. Crowds are attempting to breach doors on the east side while the Speaker of the House, Vice-President, and countless members of Congress are inside and...
The police are standing there.
Here we are! More police!
More police...not doing much.
Note that these are MPD vehicles.
It’s 2:20pm.
More police...not doing much.
Note that these are MPD vehicles.
It’s 2:20pm.
This is the part that broke me, both as a protester and a local.
You’re not allowed up the second half of those steps.
No one unauthorized is allowed near those doors.
You would be tackled, pepper sprayed, and arrested.
You’re not allowed up the second half of those steps.
No one unauthorized is allowed near those doors.
You would be tackled, pepper sprayed, and arrested.
It’s hard to see, but one police officer in a neon green jacket moseys over and checks to see what the protesters at the door are doing, then wanders away.
At this point, inside the Capitol, members of Congress are in hiding.
At this point, inside the Capitol, members of Congress are in hiding.
This is when I started texting my friends with: “HAHAHAHA NOTHING MATTERS ANYMORE.”
MPD reinforcements wander by while Trump supporters shout at the cops who are letting them storm the Capitol.
MPD reinforcements wander by while Trump supporters shout at the cops who are letting them storm the Capitol.
Trump supporter shouts, “Do your job!” as police have a chill one and the Capitol is stormed.
I can’t. I just can’t.
I can’t. I just can’t.
It’s 2:26pm. The crowd is attempting to breach one of the doors on the east side of the Capitol.
There is no visible police response. (sorry for the flipped video)
There is no visible police response. (sorry for the flipped video)
Took these photos over a ten minute span. You can see a small police presence off to the left.
If I’m hearing correctly, the guy is saying: “Donald Trump coordinated it. We’re his servants. He fought for us and we have to fight for him.”#StochasticCoup #
At 3pm, we start to hear that shots have been fired inside.
Except for what we’re being told, you would have no idea from the outside that any sort of security situation was unfolding, much less one of such a historic magnitude.
Except for what we’re being told, you would have no idea from the outside that any sort of security situation was unfolding, much less one of such a historic magnitude.
Weren’t these guys “Back the Blue!” just last week?
A lot going on here. Police on the balcony, milling about.
Trump supporter shouting insults at them.
Notice insurrectionists at the doors below, definitely up to something.
And the grandpa facetiming, sharing the coup with his family.
Trump supporter shouting insults at them.
Notice insurrectionists at the doors below, definitely up to something.
And the grandpa facetiming, sharing the coup with his family.
At 3:33pm, riot cops march through the crowd. (those are the Black Israelites you can hear in the background)
Trump supporters follow the riot cops, calling them oathbreakers and traitors.
This is my last video before I left the Capitol. The riot cops are headed towards the west side of the building while Trump supporters continue to hurl insults.
As you can see, there’s been no attempt to push the crowds back or set up a perimeter. I’m speechless.
As you can see, there’s been no attempt to push the crowds back or set up a perimeter. I’m speechless.
How can you look at these videos and not conclude that the police, not just the Capitol police but any police on the scene, received a stand down or minimal force order of some sort?
We’re looking at the greatest Capitol security breach since 1814 and police barely responded.
We’re looking at the greatest Capitol security breach since 1814 and police barely responded.
Loading suggestions...