Egypt reported about 600 new COVID-19 infections again today, a number that has held steady for almost two months now. To get a sense of how much the government is underreporting cases, let's use WHO figures from neighboring countries (rich and poor) and simple math 👇
Let's compare total cases reported by other Middle Eastern nations, some of which are going through significant financial crises and civil unrest, with their populations. 👇 app.powerbi.com
Number of cases reported/population=
Egypt: 0.2%
Saudi: 1.1%
Oman 2.9%
UAE: 4%
Kuwait: 4.6%
Qatar: 5.9%
Bahrain: 10%
Morocco: 1.3%
Tunisia: 2%
Iraq: 2%
Jordan: 4%
Lebanon: 5.2%
Turkey: 3.4%
👇
Egypt: 0.2%
Saudi: 1.1%
Oman 2.9%
UAE: 4%
Kuwait: 4.6%
Qatar: 5.9%
Bahrain: 10%
Morocco: 1.3%
Tunisia: 2%
Iraq: 2%
Jordan: 4%
Lebanon: 5.2%
Turkey: 3.4%
👇
For context, it should be noted that all countries reporting higher infection rates than Egypt also took significantly tougher measures to contain the spread. That means the infection rate in Egypt is likely higher than the highest on that list, Bahrain's 10%. 👇
But for the sake of argument, let's take the most conservative of estimates by averaging the percentages from this sample of 12 nations, which gives us 3.9%.
At that infection rate, Egypt should have declared about 3.9 million infections, or about 21 times the official figure.👇
At that infection rate, Egypt should have declared about 3.9 million infections, or about 21 times the official figure.👇
At 10%, which anybody who has family and friends in Egypt would consider conservative (since chances are more than half of them got sick over the past year), we're looking at 10 million cases, or 54 times the official figures. 👇
That means somewhere between 12K-30K cases a day, conservatively.
Instead, numbers are suppressed by simply not testing because the regime thinks tourists and foreign governments will believe that a magical divine cordon around Egypt has spared it for the past year.
Instead, numbers are suppressed by simply not testing because the regime thinks tourists and foreign governments will believe that a magical divine cordon around Egypt has spared it for the past year.
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