Are #Altcoins in a Bearmarket?
Or did we just witness brutal bearish PA, but are we still bullish HTF?
My view of the $ALT market
- Sentiment
- Examples
- Leading indicators
- How did this sell-off happen?
- More Examples
- What's next?
- Conclusion
A thread π₯π₯1/22
Or did we just witness brutal bearish PA, but are we still bullish HTF?
My view of the $ALT market
- Sentiment
- Examples
- Leading indicators
- How did this sell-off happen?
- More Examples
- What's next?
- Conclusion
A thread π₯π₯1/22
Everybody who screamed "ALTSZN, DEFISUMMER, SOLANASUMMER" etc etc, is now, 2 weeks later, in complete fear or maybe totally whiped out on leverage.
While this whole "Fear and greed index" is utter garbage, it is right about the state of the market right now:
Extreme fear. 2/
While this whole "Fear and greed index" is utter garbage, it is right about the state of the market right now:
Extreme fear. 2/
The first real dip, i.e. for $ETH here was one were everyone was really confident that this was the dip before let's say 5K, myself included, guilty
Now this second one was brutal. All across the board, while so far the Bullish MS is still in tact IMHO
Recent low = invalidation
Now this second one was brutal. All across the board, while so far the Bullish MS is still in tact IMHO
Recent low = invalidation
Let's look at some more examples here.
$VET, $LTC, $AAVE, $LINK all did retrace between 70-80%.
Whiped away almost all of the bullish PA of 2021.
Almost all $ALTS look similar. Carnage
Absolutely brutal, but where did this all 'start' and what will happen next?
4/
$VET, $LTC, $AAVE, $LINK all did retrace between 70-80%.
Whiped away almost all of the bullish PA of 2021.
Almost all $ALTS look similar. Carnage
Absolutely brutal, but where did this all 'start' and what will happen next?
4/
Like I said, $ETH was leading and rose massively vs $BTC
After such a move, it would make sense and would be healthy if we calm down for a bit.
A scenario like this would be the best, IMHO
7/
After such a move, it would make sense and would be healthy if we calm down for a bit.
A scenario like this would be the best, IMHO
7/
So, where are we, compared to the previous bullrun?
Searching for comparison is good, but also dangerous because it may feed your bias.
I do think this bullrun is far from over and we may witness at least 1, maybe more, Altseasons in the future.
8/
Searching for comparison is good, but also dangerous because it may feed your bias.
I do think this bullrun is far from over and we may witness at least 1, maybe more, Altseasons in the future.
8/
Exactly 4 years ago, we saw similar signs at the $BTC.D (Dominance) chart.
4 years makes sense, because #Bitcoin and Crypto's as a whole seem to be moving in 4 year cycles, because of i.e. the halvings and other factors.
But that's another topic, let's move on.
9/
4 years makes sense, because #Bitcoin and Crypto's as a whole seem to be moving in 4 year cycles, because of i.e. the halvings and other factors.
But that's another topic, let's move on.
9/
So, again from eo March (17) - mid may, Dominance of $BTC fell off a cliff (1)
2. #Bitcoin took back a bit of it's dominance
3. Another drop occured. After that, the parabolic advance of $BTC's move happened.
4. After Bitcoin topped, we saw a last mega #ALTSEASON
10/
2. #Bitcoin took back a bit of it's dominance
3. Another drop occured. After that, the parabolic advance of $BTC's move happened.
4. After Bitcoin topped, we saw a last mega #ALTSEASON
10/
During that phase 1&2, #Ethereum made a massive 900% move
11/
11/
While $BTC 'only' did a 238% move
12/
12/
So, what are my rough estimations of the future?
Please, these are just random thoughts, DYOR!
Let's look at the real king first, because in the end, if $ALTS still have legs in the future, $BTC must lead them.
So, range for the coming months, then next leg up?
13/
Please, these are just random thoughts, DYOR!
Let's look at the real king first, because in the end, if $ALTS still have legs in the future, $BTC must lead them.
So, range for the coming months, then next leg up?
13/
Next up: $ETH, because it will be the carrier.
HTF thoughts:
- Broke out Bullish after 1000 days of accumulative PA.
- MS clearly bullish
Breaking out after such a long period doesn't stop after a few weeks.
I do think #Ethereum makes a new ATH vs $BTC in the future
14/
HTF thoughts:
- Broke out Bullish after 1000 days of accumulative PA.
- MS clearly bullish
Breaking out after such a long period doesn't stop after a few weeks.
I do think #Ethereum makes a new ATH vs $BTC in the future
14/
Back to the $BTC.D
RANDOM scenario, just me thinking out loud.
1 has past.
2.: $BTC takes back some of the Dominance, while ranging/start of the next leg up.
3. Another drop, but during Parabola, $BTC is king.
4. MEGA Altseason like we've never witnessed before.
15/
RANDOM scenario, just me thinking out loud.
1 has past.
2.: $BTC takes back some of the Dominance, while ranging/start of the next leg up.
3. Another drop, but during Parabola, $BTC is king.
4. MEGA Altseason like we've never witnessed before.
15/
'But hey bro, all fine all the blabla about dominance and so, how about the %$ returns?' (and retraces)
During the 16-17 run there were 4 50%+ Pullbacks for the $ALT market as a whole.
I circled the one we are comparing. A ~53% retrace.
#Altcoins did +279567% btw. YES, 279567%
During the 16-17 run there were 4 50%+ Pullbacks for the $ALT market as a whole.
I circled the one we are comparing. A ~53% retrace.
#Altcoins did +279567% btw. YES, 279567%
Since the uptrend started in sep/oct, this is the first real pullback.
Makes sense, after a 11X from that point, right?
To me, it does.
I do think we have way more room for growth in the coming months.
A 10x from these levels wouldn't surprise me at all.
17/
Makes sense, after a 11X from that point, right?
To me, it does.
I do think we have way more room for growth in the coming months.
A 10x from these levels wouldn't surprise me at all.
17/
So, what is still to come?
IMHO the parabolic phase of the #Altcoin market has yet to come.
What we saw here was an appetizer, followed by a brutal correction
Correction could be over, could go on for some time.
I don't care. Because the future is still bright in my view
18/
IMHO the parabolic phase of the #Altcoin market has yet to come.
What we saw here was an appetizer, followed by a brutal correction
Correction could be over, could go on for some time.
I don't care. Because the future is still bright in my view
18/
Back to the chart. What did I draw here.
1/100th of the rise of the previous run, % wise. Possible? IMO it is.
Bera/accumulation boxes, Bulla rises/parabolic uptrend boxes.
We are just 13 weeks into price discovery.
That doesn't simply stop after such long re-accumulation
19/
1/100th of the rise of the previous run, % wise. Possible? IMO it is.
Bera/accumulation boxes, Bulla rises/parabolic uptrend boxes.
We are just 13 weeks into price discovery.
That doesn't simply stop after such long re-accumulation
19/
Let's go back to $ETH once again, bc #Ethereum will once again lead the $ALTS whenever the next leg starts imo.
Nothing redrawn on this chart since september, only the recent squiggly.
1/4 year into price discovery, after ~2.5 years accu.
5-15x from here? Totally possible
20/
Nothing redrawn on this chart since september, only the recent squiggly.
1/4 year into price discovery, after ~2.5 years accu.
5-15x from here? Totally possible
20/
Conclusion 1/2
I don't know if the bottom of the correction is in.
I don't know if anything I wrote is gonna be true.
I don't know shit.
All I know, is I can look at the charts, compare a bit to get a general view.
That general view is still massively bullish IMHO.
21/
I don't know if the bottom of the correction is in.
I don't know if anything I wrote is gonna be true.
I don't know shit.
All I know, is I can look at the charts, compare a bit to get a general view.
That general view is still massively bullish IMHO.
21/
Conclusion 2/2:
I THINK, $ALTS in general can do a 10x from here, or more ($)
$BTC.D downtrending in general, HTF
$ETH / $BTC will show the way
WE ARE IN A BULLMARKET, don't let them convince you otherwise
A LIKE and RETWEET = 2 clicks and will be appreciated big timeπ₯π₯
22
I THINK, $ALTS in general can do a 10x from here, or more ($)
$BTC.D downtrending in general, HTF
$ETH / $BTC will show the way
WE ARE IN A BULLMARKET, don't let them convince you otherwise
A LIKE and RETWEET = 2 clicks and will be appreciated big timeπ₯π₯
22
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