Lebanon will slip into an Afghan scenario and most intel agencies will be running demos and possibilities around the clock now.
Of course possibilities can be endless but the most that can be focused could be the following:
Of course possibilities can be endless but the most that can be focused could be the following:
1- a crumble scenario could start by the untimely passing or assassination of one of the main players , and a mini war that would last a day or two.
2- at the same time the economic situation will continue to deteriorate marked by the utter bankruptcy of the state. Shortages of all material are attributed to the lack of funding sources and imports will seize. Militias will move on the state to seize the last resources.
3- the national army will find itself on an island with nothing to manage and no resources to survive-on. Central command will seize to exist in exchange for regional commands which will become the real state. Some commands will ally themselves to this or that.
4- units with more firepower will become power brokers, taking over ports and establishing a new rule for the land. Armed militias will clash directly and will either absorb or be absorbed.
5- within just a week of the collapse new boundaries would appear. New maps and new faces along with a countless number of eliminations. Inter party assassinations and counter party take overs.
6- from day one of the collapse navies will flood the shores evacuating the endless stream of foreign citizens and dual nationals. The pariah states will try and offer its assets to the various fleets.
7- the disintegration will repeat the flight of Pres Ghani and a multitude of faces will chose to flee the country if they find themselves without a proper armed cover or a potential survivable surrounding. 2 or 3 players could remain out of this scenario.
8- by the end of the first month borders would start to shrink even further. Takeovers and cleansing will take an unprecedented speed with most people preferring to evacuate and abandon their locales or just accept the new reality.
9- Syria and Israel would be the apparent winners of the disintegration. Land grabs while possible wonβt be the main gain. But the dissolution of the country called Lebanon will provide new economic opportunities in the new void created.
While this can only be a non-educated assumption and a case that uses the worst case scenario, events for the past year has shown us that we are left in the open and technically anything can happen. Letβs hope none of this comes to light.
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