As a general rule, you should invest & search for ideas in areas of global markets where new funds are *not* being launched & promoted, and avoid the latter. Watch what the large asset managers do and avoid investing in areas that are their *strategic focus* for growth (eg ESG).
The reason these are "growth areas" is because that's where they can *sell* investors and raise FUM from from end investors who insist on chasing themes. This always leads to too much money chasing too few ideas in the said popular areas and valuations becoming excessive.
Furthermore, the crowding of money into these areas inevitably makes them not just less profitable (higher valuations), but also much riskier because there is a large amount of money that can be rotated out from weak hands if & when sentiment changes (& it always eventually does)
High expectations and high valuations create the foundation for future disappointment. After years of disappointing returns (as valuations and profitability decline from prior high levels - the latter due to too much capital compressing ROEs), investors slow & steadily exit.
The best bargains are to be found where people are liquidating "exposure" to areas that have performed poorly due to multi-year valuation deratings to reallocate capital to the latest hot theme de jour. If you see outflows/funds closing down, take a good look at that sector.
Never forget that market prices are set - more than anything else - simply by the flow of money. Forget notions of market efficiency. Demand and supply set prices. Large industrial flows of capital driven by asset allocation decisions (plus the Fed) determine demand and supply.
Also, stop trying so to hard to get an "informational edge". You don't need it - or at least its a very hard way to make money. Stocks become cheap when there is a low level of demand due to asset allocation decisions. Find these areas and you don't need an informational "edge".
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