๐ฐEarnings Season will start from next weekend๐ฐ
Here are some of the key metrics I will be monitoring for some of my portfolio and watchlist companies ๐
Here are some of the key metrics I will be monitoring for some of my portfolio and watchlist companies ๐
Since, each tweet has limited space, I will be using the below emojis to denote expectations from Q2 Results
๐ Excellent
๐ Above Expectations
๐ On Par with Expectations
๐ Below Expectations but still Okay
โน๏ธ Bad Results
๐ Excellent
๐ Above Expectations
๐ On Par with Expectations
๐ Below Expectations but still Okay
โน๏ธ Bad Results
Now that you're familiar with above very complicated 5 point metric scale, its time to list our expectations and key monitorables for each company.
1โฃ Laurus Labs
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 1500cr+
๐ 1300cr+
๐ 1200cr+
๐ 900cr to 1000cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 900cr
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 1500cr+
๐ 1300cr+
๐ 1200cr+
๐ 900cr to 1000cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 900cr
Key Monitorables
1. The increase in their FDF Revenue since new capacities came online in Q2FY22
2. Incremental Revenue from Laurus Bio
3. Update on CAPEX
4. Do margins stay above 30%?
5. Quantum of Impact of Shipping Costs
6. Updates on Laurus Synthesis and CDMO business
1. The increase in their FDF Revenue since new capacities came online in Q2FY22
2. Incremental Revenue from Laurus Bio
3. Update on CAPEX
4. Do margins stay above 30%?
5. Quantum of Impact of Shipping Costs
6. Updates on Laurus Synthesis and CDMO business
2โฃ Borosil Renewables
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 180cr +
๐ 150cr +
๐ 130cr +
๐ 110 to 130cr
โน๏ธ Less than 100cr
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 180cr +
๐ 150cr +
๐ 130cr +
๐ 110 to 130cr
โน๏ธ Less than 100cr
Key Monitorables
1. Custom duty on import of solar modules expired in Aug & new duty doesn't kick in until Apr'22, Impact of this on Sales should show if they are severely impacted
2. Solar Glass prices were stable throughout Qtr so margin should be stable (>35%)
3. Export Nos
1. Custom duty on import of solar modules expired in Aug & new duty doesn't kick in until Apr'22, Impact of this on Sales should show if they are severely impacted
2. Solar Glass prices were stable throughout Qtr so margin should be stable (>35%)
3. Export Nos
3โฃ Jubilant Ingrevia
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 1300cr +
๐ 1200cr +
๐ 1100cr +
๐ 1000cr +
โน๏ธ Less than 1000cr
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 1300cr +
๐ 1200cr +
๐ 1100cr +
๐ 1000cr +
โน๏ธ Less than 1000cr
Key Monitorables
1. Updates on Capex Progress
2. Incremental share of Spec Chem segment in results
3. Any changes in margin, above 17% is great, if it enters 20%+, that may re-rate the company further (high probability since prices for finished goods were high throughout the Q)
1. Updates on Capex Progress
2. Incremental share of Spec Chem segment in results
3. Any changes in margin, above 17% is great, if it enters 20%+, that may re-rate the company further (high probability since prices for finished goods were high throughout the Q)
4โฃ Mastek
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 600 cr+
๐ 550 cr+
๐ 500 cr+
๐ 450 cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 400 cr
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 600 cr+
๐ 550 cr+
๐ 500 cr+
๐ 450 cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 400 cr
Key Monitorables
1. Attrition percentages and its impact
2. Whether Op. Margins stay above 20%
3. Any updates on US acquisition
4. Impact on EPS from Evosys dilution
1. Attrition percentages and its impact
2. Whether Op. Margins stay above 20%
3. Any updates on US acquisition
4. Impact on EPS from Evosys dilution
5โฃ IEX
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 100cr
๐ 95cr+
๐ 85cr+
๐ 70cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 70cr
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 100cr
๐ 95cr+
๐ 85cr+
๐ 70cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 70cr
Key Monitorables
1. IEX publishes monthly & weekly data, so I have a pretty good idea of what to expect from results, they should be above 95cr
2. Will be looking for updates on Green Energy & Renewable Energy Certificates
3. Updates in Indian Gas Exchange
4. Dividend Details
1. IEX publishes monthly & weekly data, so I have a pretty good idea of what to expect from results, they should be above 95cr
2. Will be looking for updates on Green Energy & Renewable Energy Certificates
3. Updates in Indian Gas Exchange
4. Dividend Details
6โฃ Sequent Scientific
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 380 cr+
๐ 360 cr+
๐ 340 cr+
๐ 300 cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 300cr
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 380 cr+
๐ 360 cr+
๐ 340 cr+
๐ 300 cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 300cr
Key Monitorables
1. Margins, do they bounce back or remain depressed?
2. Any further impact of ESOPs?
3. Resolutions of customer debts in Turkey
4. Any impact of Lira on Revenues and its quantum
5. Updates from Stonehaven (if any)
6. Progress of products in regulatory markets
1. Margins, do they bounce back or remain depressed?
2. Any further impact of ESOPs?
3. Resolutions of customer debts in Turkey
4. Any impact of Lira on Revenues and its quantum
5. Updates from Stonehaven (if any)
6. Progress of products in regulatory markets
7โฃ RACL Gear Tech
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 70cr+
๐ 60cr+
๐ 50cr+
๐ 40cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 40cr
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 70cr+
๐ 60cr+
๐ 50cr+
๐ 40cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 40cr
Key Monitorables
1. Impact of shipping costs on margins
2. Updates on progress of CAPEX
3. Margins, if they bounce back to 25%
4. Updates on EV client and expected date of sales
1. Impact of shipping costs on margins
2. Updates on progress of CAPEX
3. Margins, if they bounce back to 25%
4. Updates on EV client and expected date of sales
8โฃ Strides Pharma
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 900 cr+
๐ 850 cr+
๐ 750 cr+
๐ 700 cr
โน๏ธ 600 cr
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 900 cr+
๐ 850 cr+
๐ 750 cr+
๐ 700 cr
โน๏ธ 600 cr
Key Monitorables
1. Updates on operations of NY facility they acquired from Endo
2. Whether expenses come down to less than 600cr
3. Any further price erosion (high probability)
4. Updates on Stelis and Sputnik V vaccine
1. Updates on operations of NY facility they acquired from Endo
2. Whether expenses come down to less than 600cr
3. Any further price erosion (high probability)
4. Updates on Stelis and Sputnik V vaccine
9โฃ Deepak Nitrite
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 1600cr+
๐ 1500cr+
๐ 1400cr+
๐ 1200cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 1000cr
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 1600cr+
๐ 1500cr+
๐ 1400cr+
๐ 1200cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 1000cr
Key Monitorables
1. Op. Margin, if it dips below 30%
2. The Phenol Spreads did decrease this Quarter, so my expectations are around 750cr from Phenolics and 1300cr overall
3. Warning - Any big miss in revenue estimate for Qtr may cause the stock to correct
1. Op. Margin, if it dips below 30%
2. The Phenol Spreads did decrease this Quarter, so my expectations are around 750cr from Phenolics and 1300cr overall
3. Warning - Any big miss in revenue estimate for Qtr may cause the stock to correct
๐ Vinati Organics
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 400cr+
๐ 300cr+
๐ 250cr+
๐ 220cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 200cr
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 400cr+
๐ 300cr+
๐ 250cr+
๐ 220cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 200cr
Key Monitorables
1. Vinati performs really well whenever oil prices are high and oil is in great demand globally, which has been the case in recent quarter
2. Personally expect the company to deliver a great Qtr
3. Last Q margin were just 26%, need to see if they bounce back
1. Vinati performs really well whenever oil prices are high and oil is in great demand globally, which has been the case in recent quarter
2. Personally expect the company to deliver a great Qtr
3. Last Q margin were just 26%, need to see if they bounce back
1โฃ1โฃ Divis Labs
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 2000cr+ (high probability)
๐ 1800cr+
๐ 1700cr+
๐ 1500cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 1500cr
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
๐ 2000cr+ (high probability)
๐ 1800cr+
๐ 1700cr+
๐ 1500cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 1500cr
Key Monitorables
1. Divis has a very high chance of doing 2000cr+ in revenue this quarter
2. Their margins are constantly on the rise, any increase beyond 43% Op. Margin in Qtr may re-rate the stock even further
3. High probability of EPS > 21 for Qtr
1. Divis has a very high chance of doing 2000cr+ in revenue this quarter
2. Their margins are constantly on the rise, any increase beyond 43% Op. Margin in Qtr may re-rate the stock even further
3. High probability of EPS > 21 for Qtr
1โฃ2โฃ Tata Power (Renewables)
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
(only for renewables business)
๐ 2000cr+
๐ 1800cr+
๐ 1500cr+
๐ 1200cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 1000cr
Q2 Revenue Results Expectations
(only for renewables business)
๐ 2000cr+
๐ 1800cr+
๐ 1500cr+
๐ 1200cr+
โน๏ธ Less than 1000cr
Key Monitorables
1. Monitor only Renewables part of Tata Power to gauge an estimate of renewables business in India
2. A growth in Renewables segment means good pickup for other renewables business esp. Borosil Renew (BR)
3. This serves as an early indicator of BR results
1. Monitor only Renewables part of Tata Power to gauge an estimate of renewables business in India
2. A growth in Renewables segment means good pickup for other renewables business esp. Borosil Renew (BR)
3. This serves as an early indicator of BR results
These are just some of the key companies I will be keenly watching results for.
Should you care about bad Quarterly Results?
Depends, if you're a long term (LT) investor or a trader.
For LT, its normal for business earnings to undergo hiccups Quarterly.
We as investors need to decide if the reasons for those hiccups are temporary or permanent.
Depends, if you're a long term (LT) investor or a trader.
For LT, its normal for business earnings to undergo hiccups Quarterly.
We as investors need to decide if the reasons for those hiccups are temporary or permanent.
Thank you for reading!
Fin.
Fin.
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