Lets analyse what the monthly options are telling us on BNF moves . So we use Super Trend & AVWAP to draw the conclusion. We will plot these two on Bullish Future, Bearish Future & Neutral Future. The prices moves on both the option will tell us where market is anticipated to go.
Lets start with Bullish Future (37000CE Monthly Option).
Its MAVWAP at 1180 and CMP at 1220, So its in buyer control. The Hourly Supertrend is in "BUY" mode.
Its MAVWAP at 1180 and CMP at 1220, So its in buyer control. The Hourly Supertrend is in "BUY" mode.
Now lets go to Bearish Future(38500 PE monthly Option). Its MAVWAP at 1092 and CMP is at 946, so its in seller control. The hourly Supertrend is in "SELL" mode.
Now lets go to Neutral Bullish Future(38000CE monthly option). Its MAVWAP is at 640 and CMP at 590, while hourly Supertrend is in "SELL Mode"
Now lets go to Neutral Bearish Future (38000PE monthly option). Its MAVWAP is at 815 and CMP at 670, while hourly Supertrend is in "SELL" Mode.
Now lets watch what the straddle are telling us . First see the 38000 Straddle means(38000CE+38000PE)
Its in a complete downtrend since 1st Oct. Anyone who has sold this straddle at anypoint of time for this series is making money.
Its in a complete downtrend since 1st Oct. Anyone who has sold this straddle at anypoint of time for this series is making money.
Now lets us see how the Bullish Straddle(37000) and Bearish Straddle(38500) are performing. Here you will notice that 37000 straddle are giving upward spikes every now and then while 38500 straddle is sloping downward.
So whats the conclusion we are getting after watching three different strikes from buyer and seller perspective. If you are a straddle seller then 37000 straddle can give you pain anyday while you are safe in 38000 and 38500 straddle.
In the same way 37000CE is in buyer control (means bullish) while 38500PE is in seller control(means bearish).
So the net conclusion is we are stuck in a range with bullish bias. And the first sign of reversal will come when 37000CE goes in seller control and below Supertrend . Also at the same time 38500straddle seller will start to face heat.
For supertrend I am using AFL available at marketcalls(free download) (@kirubaakaran ) and for AVWAP I am using the knowledge and AFL given by my guru @SubhadipNandy16
38000 PE chart(missed in tweet)
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