Transportation
Technology
Economics
Infrastructure
Electric vehicles
Affordability
Automobiles
Charging Infrastructure
There is no such a list called 'EV stocks' in ๐ฎ๐ณ at this point in time.
Why? The EVs & adjacent technologies that will win over the long run are still at a nascent stage.
The challenges are multiple. Let's delve deeper.
A thread ๐งต
Why? The EVs & adjacent technologies that will win over the long run are still at a nascent stage.
The challenges are multiple. Let's delve deeper.
A thread ๐งต
1/ Lack of Affordability: Indian GDP per capita is still at $2000, about 5% of that of Europe or Japan; This reduces the ability of a large number of people to buy expensive cars.
Only 5% of cars sold in India have been priced at Rs.15 lakh or more. EVs start at this price.
Only 5% of cars sold in India have been priced at Rs.15 lakh or more. EVs start at this price.
2/ The sheer lack of sufficient charging infrastructure: A normal DC EV charger only makes money when the utilization on a daily basis exceeds 5 times. In India, the current utilization is anywhere between 1 & 1.5 times. Setting up a charging station is like doing social service.
Thus, it is irrational to expect investments from the private sector in setting up EV charging stations.
A report was released recently which claimed that India would need 4 lakh EV charging stations to support 20 lakh electric vehicles on road by 2026. All stories.
A report was released recently which claimed that India would need 4 lakh EV charging stations to support 20 lakh electric vehicles on road by 2026. All stories.
3/ Where is the electricity?
The Indian subcontinent has continually faced a power deficit for decades on end; it raises a big question of would the power sector capacity (skewed towards renewable: Can't continue to burn Coal & Gas) be able to keep pace with a burgeoning economy.
The Indian subcontinent has continually faced a power deficit for decades on end; it raises a big question of would the power sector capacity (skewed towards renewable: Can't continue to burn Coal & Gas) be able to keep pace with a burgeoning economy.
4/ High dependence on limited Government subsidies, however, the Fame II subsidies are highly skewed towards only 2W & 3Ws.
In a price-conscious & high-volume nation like ๐ฎ๐ณ, Subsidies will get exhausted much faster than expected & long-term economics will take the driver seat.
In a price-conscious & high-volume nation like ๐ฎ๐ณ, Subsidies will get exhausted much faster than expected & long-term economics will take the driver seat.
5/ Range anxiety (could only be used for the intracity commute as of now) & charging time (5-10 min for ICEs vs 4-6 hours for EV) are common problems with respect to global consumers.
Will be addressed by multiple developments from R&D labs across the world in the years to come.
Will be addressed by multiple developments from R&D labs across the world in the years to come.
6/ No captive sourcing of lithium-ion batteries
When OEMs are betting 1000s of crores on setting up EV plants, they want stable access to good quality cells at the right price & the reliability of the international supply chain is doubtful after the recent semiconductor debacle.
When OEMs are betting 1000s of crores on setting up EV plants, they want stable access to good quality cells at the right price & the reliability of the international supply chain is doubtful after the recent semiconductor debacle.
7/ The traditional financiers are skeptical about EV financing as it cannot be done in a conventional way.
The asset value of an EV is much tougher to arrive at as the probability of technological obsolescence is very high!
The asset value of an EV is much tougher to arrive at as the probability of technological obsolescence is very high!
8/ The winner battery tech is unknown ๐
Would it be fixed batteries where a charging network will be required?
Would it be swappable batteries where one will work on a subscription basis?
Will it be a lithium-ion, Sodium-ion, Solid State, or a Hydrogen fuel cell?
Would it be fixed batteries where a charging network will be required?
Would it be swappable batteries where one will work on a subscription basis?
Will it be a lithium-ion, Sodium-ion, Solid State, or a Hydrogen fuel cell?
9/ Recycling batteries which is a crucial part of the supply chain needs a lot more research
If not properly managed or subject to environmental stresses, lithium-ion cells can rapidly release the energy they contain by venting smoke and flames.
Even the regulation is unknown.
If not properly managed or subject to environmental stresses, lithium-ion cells can rapidly release the energy they contain by venting smoke and flames.
Even the regulation is unknown.
10/ The threat of substitutes like the fast-growing CNG, other biofuels, Hybrid technologies
CNG as a fuel for cars is gaining traction where Maruti is growing at 60-70% on a base of lakhs with pricing similar to conventional cars & operational costs being 1/3rd of petrol.
CNG as a fuel for cars is gaining traction where Maruti is growing at 60-70% on a base of lakhs with pricing similar to conventional cars & operational costs being 1/3rd of petrol.
11/ These are one of many reasons which are a bottleneck to the onset of EVs; however, EVs are disruptive due to their various advantages over ICEs
We believe they are inevitable, just that to predict the form in which they will be mass-produced & sold is near impossible.
We believe they are inevitable, just that to predict the form in which they will be mass-produced & sold is near impossible.
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Also, If one has any questions related to EVs, please ask in the comments section.
Also, If one has any questions related to EVs, please ask in the comments section.
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