jeevan patwa
jeevan patwa

@jeevanpatwa

6 Tweets 73 reads Nov 12, 2021
#Lauruslabs
There’s lot of confusion and concers around whats happening in Laurus and I thought of putting my view
There are two main concerns
1.RM costs – this is universal to all pharma companies, but eventually will get sorted
2.ARV sales – this seems the bigger concern.
Because of regimen change (Efavirenz to Dolutegravir) and 30-day to 90-day pack, governments are in process of clearing the inventory which caused sales to go down. This may continue for a quarter more, but Q4 looks good..
Some might feel, funding may divert to Covid.
Global funds are for 5 years, it is a must medicine, so I don’t think, funding can divert or stop
Some are drawing conclusions from Q2 Aurobindo ARV sales. Pls understand LL is last man standing being lowest cost producer. Even if the market shrinks, other players may opt out,
but Laurus will continue its sales.
positives
-Two Covid drugs in advanced stage – Molnupiravir (Merck) and Paxlovid (Pfizer). Paxlovid must be combined with ritonavir to keep the drug active in the body for longer duration. Laurus can produce both Molnupiravir and Ritonavir and
will be benefited with the launch
-Majority of 1700 crs capex will commercialize by Mar-22 which is into non-ARV and generate 2500 crs. This capex is already tied up for clients, so capacity utilization will happen from Q1 itself
I remain bullish. Can’t take a qtr view but
the price is too good if one can hold for longer period

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