-- 1/ The #Bitcoin / #Crypto Bubble --
First thing is understand how bubble markets move, & especially how the #cryptocurrency market moved in the past, & where we are now.
Below shows the stages of a bubble market, which #BTC has been through 3 full cycles & now is in its 4th.
First thing is understand how bubble markets move, & especially how the #cryptocurrency market moved in the past, & where we are now.
Below shows the stages of a bubble market, which #BTC has been through 3 full cycles & now is in its 4th.
-- 2/ Retail FOMO --
There are 2 key metrics that I use to help understand the stage of the bubble which we are in & when a top is close.
1β£ Google Trends
2β£ Fear & Greed Index
There are 2 key metrics that I use to help understand the stage of the bubble which we are in & when a top is close.
1β£ Google Trends
2β£ Fear & Greed Index
-- 2a/ Google Trends --
πΉShows the trends on search keywords i.e. #bitcoin & #ethereum etc...
πΉThe level to I want to see is between 80-90 on the yearly chart for a top to be close
π: trends.google.com
πΉShows the trends on search keywords i.e. #bitcoin & #ethereum etc...
πΉThe level to I want to see is between 80-90 on the yearly chart for a top to be close
π: trends.google.com
-- 2b/ Fear & Greed --
Made up of emotions & sentiments from different sources, which ave been crunched / combined into one simple number.
Be βfearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.β
β οΈ When F&G > 90 look for tops
π: alternative.me
Made up of emotions & sentiments from different sources, which ave been crunched / combined into one simple number.
Be βfearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.β
β οΈ When F&G > 90 look for tops
π: alternative.me
-- 3/ Weekly RSI --
When a Macro top is put in, we tend to see a clear Weekly Bearish divergence formed inside the π control zone.
Currently we have only had the first stab into the π control zone, now waiting for the 2nd and the divergence to form to mark a macro cycle top.
When a Macro top is put in, we tend to see a clear Weekly Bearish divergence formed inside the π control zone.
Currently we have only had the first stab into the π control zone, now waiting for the 2nd and the divergence to form to mark a macro cycle top.
-- 6/ When to Sell?
Using time of the cycles & the fact that we expect the cycles to get longer. We can extrapolate with the 2.272 fib target, the log curve π₯ zone, pitchfork channeling and simple time expansion, that the top will be:
π₯Q2/3 2022 @ ~$200k
Using time of the cycles & the fact that we expect the cycles to get longer. We can extrapolate with the 2.272 fib target, the log curve π₯ zone, pitchfork channeling and simple time expansion, that the top will be:
π₯Q2/3 2022 @ ~$200k
-- 7/ When to Buy back in?
The next π» bottom can also be extrapolated in a similar fashion, using the 1.618 fib level, which happens to also coincide with Support, and time in relation to previous bottoming structures.
Bear market bottom at the end of Q2/3 2023 @ at
~60K
The next π» bottom can also be extrapolated in a similar fashion, using the 1.618 fib level, which happens to also coincide with Support, and time in relation to previous bottoming structures.
Bear market bottom at the end of Q2/3 2023 @ at
~60K
-- 8/ Conclusion --
πΉIMHO i think we still have a while to go before #Bitcoin tops out
πΉNone of the measures or indicators are saying we have a top
πΉThat said i don't think we go in a straight line, so there will be swings on the way
Please RT & Like if this was useful.
πΉIMHO i think we still have a while to go before #Bitcoin tops out
πΉNone of the measures or indicators are saying we have a top
πΉThat said i don't think we go in a straight line, so there will be swings on the way
Please RT & Like if this was useful.
Loading suggestions...