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$BTC market update: where are we heading?
Frens, I wanna bring to your attention three key elements in our analysis:
1) Nov.19th Options expiry
2) Latest market news
3) Price action
THIS IS A THREAD π
$BTC market update: where are we heading?
Frens, I wanna bring to your attention three key elements in our analysis:
1) Nov.19th Options expiry
2) Latest market news
3) Price action
THIS IS A THREAD π
1) Tomorrow, will be the expiry date of Nov. options and bulls are likely to lose against bears, which selling pressure is higher right now.
At first sight, the $630M call (buy) options dominate the weekly expiry by 35% compared to the $470M put (sell) instruments π
At first sight, the $630M call (buy) options dominate the weekly expiry by 35% compared to the $470M put (sell) instruments π
Still, the 1.35 call-to-put ratio is deceptive because the recent price crash will probably wipe out most bullish bets.
For example, if Bitcoinβs price remains below $62k at 8:00 am UTC on Nov. 19th, only $68M worth of those call (buy) options will be available at the expiry π
For example, if Bitcoinβs price remains below $62k at 8:00 am UTC on Nov. 19th, only $68M worth of those call (buy) options will be available at the expiry π
So, there is no value in the right to buy Bitcoin at $64,000 if itβs trading below that price.
Thatβs why bears are willing to keep price below $60.000, to not let the bulls striking their call options at that level. π
Thatβs why bears are willing to keep price below $60.000, to not let the bulls striking their call options at that level. π
Listed below are the four most likely scenarios for the $1.1B Nov. 19 expiry. The imbalance favoring each side represents the theoretical profit. In other words, depending on the expiry price, the quantity of call (buy) and put (sell) contracts becoming active varies: π
BEARISH SCENARIO
Between $58k and $60k:
10 calls vs. 3,840 puts. The net result is $220M favoring the put (bear) options.
Between $60k and $62k:
910 calls vs. 1,950 puts. The net result is $60M favoring the put (bear) instruments. π
Between $58k and $60k:
10 calls vs. 3,840 puts. The net result is $220M favoring the put (bear) options.
Between $60k and $62k:
910 calls vs. 1,950 puts. The net result is $60M favoring the put (bear) instruments. π
BULLISH SCENARIO
Between $62k and $64k:
2,030 calls vs. 940 puts. The net result is $70M favoring the call (bull) options.
Above $64k: 2,920 calls vs. 240 puts. The net result is $175M favoring the call (bull) instruments. π
Between $62k and $64k:
2,030 calls vs. 940 puts. The net result is $70M favoring the call (bull) options.
Above $64k: 2,920 calls vs. 240 puts. The net result is $175M favoring the call (bull) instruments. π
2) LATEST NEWS
On Nov. 12, the SEC denied @vaneck_us spot Bitcoin ETF request. But more important than the rejection, itself, which was largely expected, was the rationale behind the decision. π
On Nov. 12, the SEC denied @vaneck_us spot Bitcoin ETF request. But more important than the rejection, itself, which was largely expected, was the rationale behind the decision. π
The SEC explicitly mentioned their uncertainties about $USDT and the lack of ability to deter fraud and market manipulation in $BTC trading. @markets senior ETF analyst and crypto expert @EricBalchunas had already given a 1% chance for approval so the denial wasnβt a surprise. π
Moreover, on Nov. 15, @POTUS sanctioned the infrastructure bill, which mandates that starting in 2024, digital asset transactions worth more than $10k be reported to the IRS.
Considering the above scenario, it is high unlikely that we will see $64k before than tomorrow π
Considering the above scenario, it is high unlikely that we will see $64k before than tomorrow π
3) #BTC PA
The $58k support is the first key one to hold. A monthly close above it acting as a support retest would be a lot bullish and confirming the upcoming parabolic growth.
Stoch RSI is well oversold and RSI below 50. Bullish signals of a likely trend reversal soon. π
The $58k support is the first key one to hold. A monthly close above it acting as a support retest would be a lot bullish and confirming the upcoming parabolic growth.
Stoch RSI is well oversold and RSI below 50. Bullish signals of a likely trend reversal soon. π
However, On-Chain signals are confirming the $53k level as the new real price floor, so a lot of whales are putting there limit buy orders.
Letβs see how it goes. π¦
Letβs see how it goes. π¦
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