1/8 🧵Is the #Bitcoin Market Cycle Top in?!
Let's look at 7 On-Chain metrics to help us decide.
First up is the NUPL. This has historically called tops and bottoms. We're firmly out of the Greed (blue) phase at this point so...
NUPL says NOPEl. Next up, MVRV Z-Score ->
Let's look at 7 On-Chain metrics to help us decide.
First up is the NUPL. This has historically called tops and bottoms. We're firmly out of the Greed (blue) phase at this point so...
NUPL says NOPEl. Next up, MVRV Z-Score ->
2/8 The MVRV Z-Score laughs at anyone who is calling $69k the top. I tried to pick 7 metrics that have a similar layout (overheated in top red zone, cooled off in bottom blue zone). Same layout, different formulas, same story. Two for Two no Top. Next, RPV Ratio ->
3/8 RPV Ratio looks at the ratio between realized profit and realized cap. It's a great metric to view profit taking which is obviously important as we start to run up to a cycle top.
Verdict? No Top, ser/maam.
But wait until you see what the Top Cap model shows ->
Verdict? No Top, ser/maam.
But wait until you see what the Top Cap model shows ->
4/8 It shows, yet again, that the bears are wrong. No surprises here, we're nowhere near the top cap (red line).
How about Reserve Risk? ->
How about Reserve Risk? ->
5/8 Sorry bears, still not looking good for you on-chain. Reserve Risk looks at the price in relationship to the hodl bank to gauge confidence of long-term holders. Quite clearly not a top.
Maybe the Puell Multiple will show something different? ->
Maybe the Puell Multiple will show something different? ->
6/8 Nah....The Puell Multiple, created by @kenoshaking, tells a similar story to the other metrics in this thread. Still a ways to run here.
Last but not least, lets look at the Realized HODL Ratio ->
Last but not least, lets look at the Realized HODL Ratio ->
7/8 You know the story now. No indications of a market cycle top from the Realized HODL Ratio.
I go through all of these charts in more detail in my YT video (link in next tweet). Overall, take a deep breath and enjoy that the on-chain data is not indicating a market cycle top.
I go through all of these charts in more detail in my YT video (link in next tweet). Overall, take a deep breath and enjoy that the on-chain data is not indicating a market cycle top.
8/8 I hope that helped! Check out the video below for more analysis and to break through the noise on Twitter 🤜🤛
youtu.be
youtu.be
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