Whenever #Nifty & #BankNifty closes less than -1% on Fridays, what happens on Monday and what happens on next 30 days. Interesting analysis, will be sharing the details shortly.
Only 7 times in last 11 years, #IndiaVix moved more than 15% on Fridays and only 2 times Vix dropped on following Monday, rest all the time Vix increased on Monday as well.
After Friday’s Vix big move, What happens after 30 days, all 7 times the Vix went up much higher in next 30 days. So this Friday’s fall could be start of the next big volatile sessions in the coming weeks
With 25 years of data, 251 times Nifty dropped < -1% on Fridays, 58% of the time following Monday witnessed further fall, average move on such Mondays are -1.8%
This how Nifty moved in next 30 days, after the Friday fall. Market continued to slide in next 30 days as well. 58% of the time next 30 days returns turned negative.
This how BankNifty moved on Monday when Friday fall is <-1%. 56% of the time Monday turned out to be a bearish day with average down side of -1.5%
And even BankNifty also sliding downwards for next 30 days after Friday’s big fall. Where avg downside move was almost -10%.
Only time will tell us, how deep this Down move could go. As long as you are dealing with right position sizing, even another world war won’t damage to your portfolio. ✌️
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