🚨 A bearish thread, please do not read if your squeamish about an alternate perspective🚨
Regarding my sudden bearishness, I need to explain why.
Let’s break this down:
Legacy Markets
Evergrande
Commercial Paper
Tether
Confluence of indicators
The fallacy of cycle theory👇
Regarding my sudden bearishness, I need to explain why.
Let’s break this down:
Legacy Markets
Evergrande
Commercial Paper
Tether
Confluence of indicators
The fallacy of cycle theory👇
2/2
It’s no secret that I have been increasingly bearish on stocks. This is due to multiple technical & fundamental factors. Currently the yield curve is screaming recession, the $USD is rising, Valuations are the 2nd highest on record, & the continual belief that the Fed can 👇
It’s no secret that I have been increasingly bearish on stocks. This is due to multiple technical & fundamental factors. Currently the yield curve is screaming recession, the $USD is rising, Valuations are the 2nd highest on record, & the continual belief that the Fed can 👇
3/3
Just print money and save the day. Forgetting the fact that there are unintended consequences to such actions. The sad reality is the Fed will be what makes the crash worse. It’s even possible to assert that the upcoming collapse is engineered intentionally, a story I’ll 👇
Just print money and save the day. Forgetting the fact that there are unintended consequences to such actions. The sad reality is the Fed will be what makes the crash worse. It’s even possible to assert that the upcoming collapse is engineered intentionally, a story I’ll 👇
4/4
leave for another time. From a technical perspective, the markets are nearing important Fib extensions with all indicators flashing yellow. The idea of a melt up, while still possible, seems less likely due in large part to inflationary pressures that would cap that theory👇
leave for another time. From a technical perspective, the markets are nearing important Fib extensions with all indicators flashing yellow. The idea of a melt up, while still possible, seems less likely due in large part to inflationary pressures that would cap that theory👇
5/5
The one thing that is the mothers milk of stocks are earnings. However, most stocks have been pushed higher not by earnings, but rather the Fed and buybacks. At the same time we are seeing an increasing amount of insiders selling versus buying. Essentially the things that 👇
The one thing that is the mothers milk of stocks are earnings. However, most stocks have been pushed higher not by earnings, but rather the Fed and buybacks. At the same time we are seeing an increasing amount of insiders selling versus buying. Essentially the things that 👇
6/6
has been pushing valuations higher is coming to an end. The Fed is going to taper, the buybacks will slow, & markets will respond in kind. Now let’s discuss what the fuse to be lit to start this collapse will be. Evergrande! Think of it like Bear Stearns and AIG on steroids👇
has been pushing valuations higher is coming to an end. The Fed is going to taper, the buybacks will slow, & markets will respond in kind. Now let’s discuss what the fuse to be lit to start this collapse will be. Evergrande! Think of it like Bear Stearns and AIG on steroids👇
7/7
While Evergrande has managed to pay their initial bond payments, that is coming to a halt, and soon. The contagion will first begin in the Commercial Paper market, that will then spill over to larger defaults by firms that own that paper, this resulting in further financial👇
While Evergrande has managed to pay their initial bond payments, that is coming to a halt, and soon. The contagion will first begin in the Commercial Paper market, that will then spill over to larger defaults by firms that own that paper, this resulting in further financial👇
8/8
Contagion. And this is where Tether comes in! While Tether has emphatically stated they don’t own any Evergrande paper, they do own quite a bit of paper that is tied to it. The worse part is that Tether has roughly 4% liquid on hand to provide for those who cash in. 👇
Contagion. And this is where Tether comes in! While Tether has emphatically stated they don’t own any Evergrande paper, they do own quite a bit of paper that is tied to it. The worse part is that Tether has roughly 4% liquid on hand to provide for those who cash in. 👇
9/9
Whenever there is a run over 4% of liquidations, that’s where things get bad for Bitcoin. Love it or hate it, 50% of $BTC is directly tied to Tether. If Tether has problems, $BTC has problems. I am not even including the leverage traders also in this market, which compounds👇
Whenever there is a run over 4% of liquidations, that’s where things get bad for Bitcoin. Love it or hate it, 50% of $BTC is directly tied to Tether. If Tether has problems, $BTC has problems. I am not even including the leverage traders also in this market, which compounds👇
10
The issue. The other major problem not discussed by many Bulls, is Bitcoin is at record low short levels. This is HIGHLY concerning, as the theme now is to buy the dip, when it is looking more and more like it should be sell the rip. Bear markets, happen at the top before 👇
The issue. The other major problem not discussed by many Bulls, is Bitcoin is at record low short levels. This is HIGHLY concerning, as the theme now is to buy the dip, when it is looking more and more like it should be sell the rip. Bear markets, happen at the top before 👇
11
people even realize that the trend has changed. Technically speaking $BTC is still within the confines of a Bull market, but that can change more quickly than most realize. I was here in March 2020, and I can tell you personally a 40% down candle can happen. The larger issue👇
people even realize that the trend has changed. Technically speaking $BTC is still within the confines of a Bull market, but that can change more quickly than most realize. I was here in March 2020, and I can tell you personally a 40% down candle can happen. The larger issue👇
12
that I see now is how many keep using past cycles to define THIS cycle. The fact is, the cycles of the past and the cycle today are all ONE LARGE BULLISH structure that is completing itself. Furthermore, way too many are expecting a parabolic blow off top. The reality is the👇
that I see now is how many keep using past cycles to define THIS cycle. The fact is, the cycles of the past and the cycle today are all ONE LARGE BULLISH structure that is completing itself. Furthermore, way too many are expecting a parabolic blow off top. The reality is the👇
13
The entire structure is a parabolic structure. The other major issue is that most technical analysts are NOT focusing on Legacy markets, the Forex, & the macro structural changes that are now happening. The other thing that I’ve stressed time and time again, is that Bitcoin👇
The entire structure is a parabolic structure. The other major issue is that most technical analysts are NOT focusing on Legacy markets, the Forex, & the macro structural changes that are now happening. The other thing that I’ve stressed time and time again, is that Bitcoin👇
14
HAS NEVER BEEN IN A RECESSION OR BEAR MARKET IN STOCKS. Ever. Overlooking this is a huge mistake when determine Bitcoin price projections. Regarding the fallacy of 4-year cycle versus lengthening cycles. This is a straw man argument. It’s pointless and fruitless. Yes, there 👇
HAS NEVER BEEN IN A RECESSION OR BEAR MARKET IN STOCKS. Ever. Overlooking this is a huge mistake when determine Bitcoin price projections. Regarding the fallacy of 4-year cycle versus lengthening cycles. This is a straw man argument. It’s pointless and fruitless. Yes, there 👇
15
have been cycles within the larger structure, and that can’t be denied. BUT! This all changes when liquidity dries up, Tether unravels, & legacy markets collapse. It’s in that moment people will find out quickly that Bitcoin will respond the same way all risk assets respond👇
have been cycles within the larger structure, and that can’t be denied. BUT! This all changes when liquidity dries up, Tether unravels, & legacy markets collapse. It’s in that moment people will find out quickly that Bitcoin will respond the same way all risk assets respond👇
16
It will go down, and down hard. While we all are trying to navigate this market to win for our families, it’s important to be able to adapt and change your views, in order to protect your capital. It’s often been said in investing, “Sometimes it’s not the return on my money,👇
It will go down, and down hard. While we all are trying to navigate this market to win for our families, it’s important to be able to adapt and change your views, in order to protect your capital. It’s often been said in investing, “Sometimes it’s not the return on my money,👇
17
it’s the return OF my money that is important”. That statement should ring louder in your ears as the end of the everything bubble nears. Will Bitcoin go into put in a new ATH? Maybe. My gut and years of experience, say no. And it’s my personal belief that pain is coming soon.
it’s the return OF my money that is important”. That statement should ring louder in your ears as the end of the everything bubble nears. Will Bitcoin go into put in a new ATH? Maybe. My gut and years of experience, say no. And it’s my personal belief that pain is coming soon.
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