The difficulty with which it takes to sell out an NFT project these days cannot be understated. This is a VERY different market to even a month ago, let alone 6 months ago.
It is tough. 95% of projects launching from today onwards are not going to mint out the day of the drop.
It is tough. 95% of projects launching from today onwards are not going to mint out the day of the drop.
This is probably a good thing for the health of the market. It is correcting itself, and becoming more efficient.
It was and is unsustainable for an ecosystem to support projects minting out and then instantly trading at multiples of mint price on the secondary market.
It was and is unsustainable for an ecosystem to support projects minting out and then instantly trading at multiples of mint price on the secondary market.
We need to shift our expectations. Both as project creators/founders, and as consumers.
Expecting to sell out your entire collection within hours let alone minutes is no longer realistic for most.
Expecting to be able to mint an NFT and then flip it for a 2x even is no longer
Expecting to sell out your entire collection within hours let alone minutes is no longer realistic for most.
Expecting to be able to mint an NFT and then flip it for a 2x even is no longer
realistic for most.
Some of the best NFTs are still going to have ROIs of thousands of %. Most are not.
To me, a project is a success if a year after mint it is still around with a floor price above the mint price, and enough liquidity to be able to sell.
In a market where
Some of the best NFTs are still going to have ROIs of thousands of %. Most are not.
To me, a project is a success if a year after mint it is still around with a floor price above the mint price, and enough liquidity to be able to sell.
In a market where
almost no projects have been around for longer than a year, how can one tell which projects are going to be?
It comes back to what I always say: it's all about the people.
The #1, #2, #3, #4 and #5 most important things to me when considering to invest in a project are the
It comes back to what I always say: it's all about the people.
The #1, #2, #3, #4 and #5 most important things to me when considering to invest in a project are the
people. The team, and the community. Being innovative helps, having good art helps, having a good roadmap helps, but if the people involved aren't executing at the highest levels with the best of intentions then I generally don't want to be involved.
There's also a good amount
There's also a good amount
of luck involved. Being in the right place, at the right time, with the right people looking at your project and interested in it and sharing it. Some of this is out of your control -- some of it is within your control.
You can't control the market, but you can control when you
You can't control the market, but you can control when you
choose to release your collection. You can't go back in time, but you can wait and delay. Often the best time to drop a collection that is fully ready is in a month, not immediately.
There's still an enormous stigma around projects that haven't sold out. I wrote about this in
There's still an enormous stigma around projects that haven't sold out. I wrote about this in
my Newsletter 4 months ago (zeneca33.substack.com). That stigma still exists, unfortunately. I believe we need to get better as a community at not dismissing a project as an abject failure simply because they are selling out slowly. Instead we should look at whether the team is
hanging around and continuing to try and build and create and add value. We should look at whether there's a dedicated community enjoying the project for what it is and where it's at, and optimistic about the future they're building together.
However until that stigma has
However until that stigma has
dissipated, it might be wise to delay your launch until the market conditions are more favourable, and to give yourself time to build a community *before* launch rather than after.
As for having the right people interested and sharing your project -- some of this does come down
As for having the right people interested and sharing your project -- some of this does come down
to luck, but some of it is within your control. The longer you spend actively engaging and networking in this space, the more connections you will have. The more friends. The more supporters. These are the people that will be most likely to mint your NFT and more importantly, to
share that they minted it and why they minted it with their circles and communities. This is what organic growth looks like. It usually takes time, and effort, and lots of both.
So it takes a lot of work, and a sprinkle of luck, to launch a successful NFT project. The kicker is
So it takes a lot of work, and a sprinkle of luck, to launch a successful NFT project. The kicker is
that if you're trying to build a community, or develop a game, build a brand, or create a TV show, then the day your public sale starts is when the true work begins. Yes it might take months of hard work in the lead up to launch, but that's really just the beginning.
You might
You might
sell out, you might not. You should have a plan for both scenarios. Is your entire project's success predicated on selling 100%? If so, you should probably go back to the drawing board.
Can you "survive" and continue to deliver whatever it is you're promising to deliver if you
Can you "survive" and continue to deliver whatever it is you're promising to deliver if you
"only" sell 10%, 5%, 1%? What happens in those scenarios?
If this is scaring you, i'm sorry, but that's a good thing. Launching an NFT project should not be easy, and nobody should expect to be able to easily raise millions of dollars.
Yes, a few months ago it *was* easy. That
If this is scaring you, i'm sorry, but that's a good thing. Launching an NFT project should not be easy, and nobody should expect to be able to easily raise millions of dollars.
Yes, a few months ago it *was* easy. That
was then and this is now. I don't think we'll ever go back to the days where any half-baked idea with fiverr art and a copy-pasted smart contract can sell out 10k mints.
Even the seemingly 'low-effort' projects today that are minting out, are not so low effort. There is usually
Even the seemingly 'low-effort' projects today that are minting out, are not so low effort. There is usually
hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of aggressive marketing tactics involved. And even then, there's no guarantee that the collection will mint out.
It's probably only going to continue to get harder as time goes on, and projects will probably have to continue to innovate
It's probably only going to continue to get harder as time goes on, and projects will probably have to continue to innovate
and give the market better and better reasons for why we should part with our money to mint YOUR nft when there are dozens other dropping the same week, and many thousands that have already dropped this year.
That's worth repeating and remembering - you're not just competing
That's worth repeating and remembering - you're not just competing
with the other projects dropping that same day/week. You're literally competing with every other project out there. If you're trying to sell something at 0.08 ETH, is it really worth me minting yours instead of buying something that was launched 4 months ago and has a team that
has been working on the project since then, trying to deliver value? With an already established community? Perhaps. It might be. But you need to make your case and prove that to us.
The last thing I want to mention is on the topic of reputation. We're early. VERY, very, early.
The last thing I want to mention is on the topic of reputation. We're early. VERY, very, early.
The true winners and those that are "gonna make it" are the people that are here, now, and that will *still* be here in a decade. With their wallets and reputations intact.
The most important thing in this space, and probably in this life, are the relationships we make with one
The most important thing in this space, and probably in this life, are the relationships we make with one
another. In business/NFTs, these relationships lead to opportunities which can lead to financial success. In life, these relationships lead to personal success and fulfilment.
Acting unethically, immorally, cruel, mean, vindictive, petty, selfishly, and/or anti-social, will tend
Acting unethically, immorally, cruel, mean, vindictive, petty, selfishly, and/or anti-social, will tend
to be remembered. You will burn bridges that you'll wish you never burned. You will lose out on some of the best future opportunities imaginable. You will make some of the future kingpins of this space never want to work with you, or worse, never want to even be associated with
you. Don't steal, don't deceive, don't cash grab, don't front run, don't perpetuate fraud, don't be a dick.
It costs nothing to be kind. It costs nothing to be a good human. It's good for the soul, and if that's not enough, it's good for your bottom line too.
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It costs nothing to be kind. It costs nothing to be a good human. It's good for the soul, and if that's not enough, it's good for your bottom line too.
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