1) Been seeing lots of speculation posts about the $APE token for @BoredApeYC. I decided to sit down tonight and come up with my own speculation. So here is a thread π§΅...
2) I really think that a similar model to $ENS will be utilized for distribution. The curve ball to this is that the same law firm working with Pixel Vault and $PUNKS and $POW is working with @yugalabs.
3) For my model I assumed a 100m $APE tokens.
40% of these will be held back for P2E game rewards.
30% for BAYC
15% for MAYC
10% for Yuga Labs
5% for BAKC multiplier
40% of these will be held back for P2E game rewards.
30% for BAYC
15% for MAYC
10% for Yuga Labs
5% for BAKC multiplier
4) The hinted at BAKC + BAYC multiplier I went with the most conservative number of $APE per asset as I don't know how many instances of unique BAKC + BAYC occurrences there are. Hypothetically the "multiplier" would be larger since not all BAKCs are in wallets with a BAYC.
5) I did not take in account the founders hinted at reward for being long term holders. While this would be easy to accomplish with some sort of factor multiplier for time held this also punishes owners that have prioritized security w/ transferring them to cold storage.
6) Some have also transferred them between hot and cold wallets for the merch drops, treasure hunt, MAYC minting, etc. With all the news of scams, losing seed phrases, etc. I would hope that Apes that have prioritized the safety of their assets would not be punished for doing so.
7) I think a $2b MC is very realistic. $ENS is sitting at a $850k ish MC and was above $1b for a period of time. $2b mc would be $20 a token. Now if you take in account that 40% are locked up with P2E then you are looking at $33.33 per token at a $2b mc
8) So for a BAYC that would mean our apes our currently undervalued by $100k or 26ish eth at current $ETH prices. So hypothetically we should be near a 100 eth floor if we believe that $APE is not currently figured in to our price.
9) For MAYC they woould be undervalued by $15k or about 4 eth. MAYC, hypothetically, should be near a 20 eth floor if the token is not already figured in to the pricing.
10) I personally feel like $APE has been figured in to the current pricing to a certain extent, but not fully since we don't know the full details behind it nor the tokenomics of the token.
11) All I know is that $APE Day will be insane and the Yacht Club is in store for one hell of a Bored Year! #BAYC
I hid a reply since it was from someone i dont recognize and it contained a link.
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