22 predictions for 2022 in web3/crypto đź”⛓ ✨
DISCLAIMER: I don’t have a crystal ball.
The way I am approaching this—on most accounts—is to curve fit on ideas you probably saw in the Christmas smash hit below.
It just so happens that not all curves are linear.
Les Goh!!
The way I am approaching this—on most accounts—is to curve fit on ideas you probably saw in the Christmas smash hit below.
It just so happens that not all curves are linear.
Les Goh!!
1/ Long alpha, short beta.
Spray and pray has already stopped working but I expect the divergence to exaggerate further.
Cross-asset correlations will weaken further. We are at the market maturity stage that this makes sense.
Spray and pray has already stopped working but I expect the divergence to exaggerate further.
Cross-asset correlations will weaken further. We are at the market maturity stage that this makes sense.
2/ The institutional narrative makes a comeback.
This probably means medium term trend reversals for BTCD and DeFi blue chips.
Probably a few months out still.
This probably means medium term trend reversals for BTCD and DeFi blue chips.
Probably a few months out still.
3/ In light of that @NexusMutual makes a claim back to fame, pulling what Maker did in 2021.
Move to DAO, wNXM buybacks, v2 launch and much more in store.
Fade the hate.
Move to DAO, wNXM buybacks, v2 launch and much more in store.
Fade the hate.
4/ Huge on-chain treasuries will become kingmakers.
More alpha will be found in governance and governance forums.
The biggest service governance provides is not participation, but bandwidth to adjust to changing realities.
More alpha will be found in governance and governance forums.
The biggest service governance provides is not participation, but bandwidth to adjust to changing realities.
5/ The eth2 merge takes place in Q2.
This squarely puts PoS at the forefront of the industry.
Good chances of a weird PoW fork happening with the transition.
Also good chances that a bout of network instability hits eth2 in 2022.
This squarely puts PoS at the forefront of the industry.
Good chances of a weird PoW fork happening with the transition.
Also good chances that a bout of network instability hits eth2 in 2022.
6/ As validators start to capture MEV and fees, demand for validator slots rockets and the activation queue gets maxed out.
@LidoFinance wins big here as a way to “rent” real estate on the Beacon Chain.
stETH will trade at a premium to ETH in H2.
@LidoFinance wins big here as a way to “rent” real estate on the Beacon Chain.
stETH will trade at a premium to ETH in H2.
7/ More broadly, liquid staking solutions across networks at least double their current penetration to total stake mass.
For a large part of the market it’s just better UX.
Faites vos jeux.
For a large part of the market it’s just better UX.
Faites vos jeux.
8/ Tendermint finally really shines through.
The market starts loving ATOM even more and application specific blockchain deployments using Tendermint at least double.
The market starts loving ATOM even more and application specific blockchain deployments using Tendermint at least double.
9/ In the application specific contingent, application specific rollups on Ethereum (like dydx’s StarkEx deployment) will collectively capture more fees than general purpose ones like Arbitrum.
Good odds that we see big co adoption of permissioned rollups.
Good odds that we see big co adoption of permissioned rollups.
10/ All general purpose rollups on Ethereum will drop tokens as they prep for permissionless sequencer sets.
Rollup sequencer sets will largely stay permissioned.
Cross-chain MEV might start being a thing towards the tail end of 2022.
Rollup sequencer sets will largely stay permissioned.
Cross-chain MEV might start being a thing towards the tail end of 2022.
11/ The demand for EVM blockspace continues to outpace supply.
We will see no real relief for users on Ethereum L1.
A popular sidechain or ETH killer will experience serious issues with transaction costs and state management.
Rotations will continue until morale improves.
We will see no real relief for users on Ethereum L1.
A popular sidechain or ETH killer will experience serious issues with transaction costs and state management.
Rotations will continue until morale improves.
12/ Demand for cross chain transactions at least quintuples.
This will still be EVM to EVM centric.
Liquidity will continue to be fragmented.
Solutions like @movrnetwork thrive.
This will still be EVM to EVM centric.
Liquidity will continue to be fragmented.
Solutions like @movrnetwork thrive.
13/ We will see a vertically focused cross-chain application win big.
This could be a lending protocol, a yield optimizer or an exchange protocol.
Maybe there’s a redemption arc for Compound Gateway in the works.
This could be a lending protocol, a yield optimizer or an exchange protocol.
Maybe there’s a redemption arc for Compound Gateway in the works.
14/ TVL on the Polkadot ecosystem will challenge that of Solana.
DOT valuation via DOT staked and the USD value of TVL on that ecosystem will gyrate around one another.
Good odds that DOT becomes loved once again for a quarter or two.
DOT valuation via DOT staked and the USD value of TVL on that ecosystem will gyrate around one another.
Good odds that DOT becomes loved once again for a quarter or two.
15/ Stablecoins get to 0.5T mcap collectively.
Algo and hybrid algo stablecoins benefit disproportionately.
Curve wars intensify. CVX and CRV become even more valuable.
Algo and hybrid algo stablecoins benefit disproportionately.
Curve wars intensify. CVX and CRV become even more valuable.
16/ In 2022 we will see the largest inflow of developer talent in web3/crypto that we have ever seen to date on a year-on-year basis.
Private markets will have a party.
Private markets will have a party.
17/ Web3 UX will get a lot better, safer and richer.
Metamask still comes out the leader because Lindy and…Stockholm Syndrome.
100M users by year end.
Metamask still comes out the leader because Lindy and…Stockholm Syndrome.
100M users by year end.
18/ Value will continue to move towards the app layer.
In the process, adoption of enabling infrastructure like @POKTnetwork and @biconomy will accelerate.
Infrastructure will become a rotator theme for at least a quarter.
Oracles also likely back in vogue.
In the process, adoption of enabling infrastructure like @POKTnetwork and @biconomy will accelerate.
Infrastructure will become a rotator theme for at least a quarter.
Oracles also likely back in vogue.
19/ OpenSea dominance will be challenged but OS will remain king.
Long category specific NFT marketplaces (h/t @richardchen39)
Long category specific NFT marketplaces (h/t @richardchen39)
20/ NFT search, indexing and heuristics will get a lot better.
By year end, we’ll be able to search for “rare white Bored Apes with hat and jacket” and get relevant results.
The solutions to this problem will likely come from grassroots upstarts.
By year end, we’ll be able to search for “rare white Bored Apes with hat and jacket” and get relevant results.
The solutions to this problem will likely come from grassroots upstarts.
21/ Web3 social will still not take off or become a strong theme.
We will however see crucial pieces and their components like messaging (see @ourspacesxyz and @xmtp_) and profile building (see @Sismo_eth) find product-market fit.
We will however see crucial pieces and their components like messaging (see @ourspacesxyz and @xmtp_) and profile building (see @Sismo_eth) find product-market fit.
22/ DAOs and DAO tokens will boom at first, and then bust later.
Organizational best practices will get better and better, but their rate of improvement will lag the rate of DAO creation.
Bullish strong operator DAOs and simpler use cases like investing.
Organizational best practices will get better and better, but their rate of improvement will lag the rate of DAO creation.
Bullish strong operator DAOs and simpler use cases like investing.
As an endnote, you should remember that no-one has a crystal ball.
Some people are better than others at predicting the future. A good few are better at giving it shape.
Let’s all strive to be the latter.
Here’s to a wonderful 2022 🎆
Some people are better than others at predicting the future. A good few are better at giving it shape.
Let’s all strive to be the latter.
Here’s to a wonderful 2022 🎆
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