1/ The objective in crypto is to survive and outperform BTC & ETH.
In my opinion this is accomplished through one thing, conviction.
Thread on conviction and how I choose and invest in projects.
In my opinion this is accomplished through one thing, conviction.
Thread on conviction and how I choose and invest in projects.
2/ Conviction allows you to hold to 100x, it also allows you to hold through massive drawdowns.
Yet there is a difference between blind faith and conviction.
Constantly re-evaluate your theses, if new information presents itself then you have the ability to change your mind.
Yet there is a difference between blind faith and conviction.
Constantly re-evaluate your theses, if new information presents itself then you have the ability to change your mind.
3/ If fundamentally your thesis remains unchanged, then don't let the market shake you out or have your emotions make you sell to early.
"Don't mistake action with progress"
- one of my favorite quotes, I believe @pythianism has said this on a few podcasts.
"Don't mistake action with progress"
- one of my favorite quotes, I believe @pythianism has said this on a few podcasts.
4/ Firstly I like to set up my macro view. This is pretty zoomed out and sets up my view on the market as a whole.
I laid out this view on UpOnly back in June when BTC was 34K, ~50% off the highs.
I laid out this view on UpOnly back in June when BTC was 34K, ~50% off the highs.
5/ I still strongly believe in my macro view, but it has continued to change and evolve over time.
I have deepened my conviction by looking at crypto as a technology rather than a strictly macro asset.
Learning about network effects and metcalfe's law from @RaoulGMI
I have deepened my conviction by looking at crypto as a technology rather than a strictly macro asset.
Learning about network effects and metcalfe's law from @RaoulGMI
5/ After macro establishes my bias, I begin to go micro.
I look for certain plays I think can seriously outperform over the next 6 months to a few years.
My process for finding these projects is the following:
I look for certain plays I think can seriously outperform over the next 6 months to a few years.
My process for finding these projects is the following:
6/ Step 1: Find a narrative/sector/theme that you are bullish on.
Some of my favorite sectors
Decentralized Derivatives
Multi-Chain Future
Liquid Staking
Scalability / Gaming - How to acquire the next 100M-1B crypto users.
Some of my favorite sectors
Decentralized Derivatives
Multi-Chain Future
Liquid Staking
Scalability / Gaming - How to acquire the next 100M-1B crypto users.
7/ Step 2: Sift through twitter / CoinGecko looking for projects within these themes.
Depending on valuations/market conditions I have personally liked to look in the 100-500m FDV range.
FDV is not perfect but a good metric to skim through projects with.
Depending on valuations/market conditions I have personally liked to look in the 100-500m FDV range.
FDV is not perfect but a good metric to skim through projects with.
8/ Step 3: Begin shortening the list of projects by reading the docs, visiting telegrams/discords.
My favorite and best picks so far have come from projects with vibrant communities and active developer presence/communication.
My favorite and best picks so far have come from projects with vibrant communities and active developer presence/communication.
9/ Step 4: Deep Dive.
This is the final step, really dig into the docs, ask questions in the discord/telegram, get involved in the community.
At this point it will be pretty clear if you like what you see or not.
This is the final step, really dig into the docs, ask questions in the discord/telegram, get involved in the community.
At this point it will be pretty clear if you like what you see or not.
10/ Step 5: Conviction & re-evaluation.
This is where all the work you did coming up with your macro and micro thesis comes into play.
Ask yourself questions like:
Have things changed or am I just getting emotional?
What would need to happen for me to change my thesis?
This is where all the work you did coming up with your macro and micro thesis comes into play.
Ask yourself questions like:
Have things changed or am I just getting emotional?
What would need to happen for me to change my thesis?
11/ Try not to get into the mindset of selling winners for losers.
Naturally we like to buy things when they are cheap and sell things when they look expensive.
Winners are winning for a reason and given the reflexivity of crypto, it's most likely they will continue to win.
Naturally we like to buy things when they are cheap and sell things when they look expensive.
Winners are winning for a reason and given the reflexivity of crypto, it's most likely they will continue to win.
12/ Although this is a general rule of thumb, in my experience there are exceptions.
I think trimming winners that might not have realistic desired upside left (ex already a top 20 coin) can help you compound significantly.
I think trimming winners that might not have realistic desired upside left (ex already a top 20 coin) can help you compound significantly.
13/ You only need to be right once on a big win of 50-100x to then turn smaller compounds of 2-5x into a lot of money.
There is so much opportunity in crypto if you are willing to put in the work, you may get opportunities like these multiple times over the course of a year.
There is so much opportunity in crypto if you are willing to put in the work, you may get opportunities like these multiple times over the course of a year.
14/ End.
These are just a few things (I think) I have learned since buying the top in 2017. None of this is financial advice and its simply my opinion on crypto and the opportunities it brings.
These are just a few things (I think) I have learned since buying the top in 2017. None of this is financial advice and its simply my opinion on crypto and the opportunities it brings.
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