All assets are influenced by cycles of various lengths. They are intertwined
The Cycle's Translation (whether in a bull/bear phase) directly influences lower time-frame cycle.
Knowing how the higher time-frames cycles are positioned is important.
(THREAD)
The Cycle's Translation (whether in a bull/bear phase) directly influences lower time-frame cycle.
Knowing how the higher time-frames cycles are positioned is important.
(THREAD)
Here is a drawing that shows just 3 Cycles intertwined. There are many more for each asset.
In this example, I use #Bitcoin's 16yr, 4yr, and 41.7w annual Cycles as example. Too detailed to fit, but there would be 5 x 60-day Cycles (Between every two Magenta arrows)
In this example, I use #Bitcoin's 16yr, 4yr, and 41.7w annual Cycles as example. Too detailed to fit, but there would be 5 x 60-day Cycles (Between every two Magenta arrows)
Notice that the top of any cycle must also be a top for EVERY other cycle of shorter duration. So Top of every 4yr cycle as an annual Cycle top. And so on. (Intertwined)
Notice how during the rising portion of a 16yr cycle, the 4-yr cycles slope higher. The peaks come later.
Notice how during the rising portion of a 16yr cycle, the 4-yr cycles slope higher. The peaks come later.
And rising 4-yr cycles must therefore have (mostly) rising annual cycles. Furthermore, then 60-day Cycle would mostly be rising to support the rising annual cycles.
But in the declining portion of a 16yr cycle, all of the lower timeframe Cycle will generally need to have earlier peaks, in order to accommodate a declining trend. (lower highs and lows).
This is also why measuring any cycle to a peak is not good practice. It's a habit formed with a bull market bias. Meaning there is a false expectation of indefinite rising prices. At some point, peaks will come sooner, not later, to accommodate a secular decline.
The challenge for any Cyclist is in identifying when a longer duration cycle might have peaked. As a peaked cycle will have follow through effect on the shorter cycles. For that we use the evidence and behavior of the asset on the lower time-frame cycles.
This wasn't intended to form any type of prediction on current conditions. More as an understanding of cycle behavior, maybe a little more clarity on some of the content I share. /e
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