Thread; Russia won't invade Ukraine - Here's our view on it & what we believe are valid points signalling that Russian invasion of Ukraine is unlikely - Before this, we posted about what are valid points of a potential Russian invasion, so here's the other side of the argument 👇
Keep in mind that these are purely our observations and opinions, this is neither "right" or "wrong", these are simply our observations.
1. The state of Ukraine
Ukraine is the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe. Russia does well enough to support itself and whatever it needs, but it cannot afford to feed additional 44 million people, pensions, benefits, healthcare, etc. Not many countries could. --
Ukraine is the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe. Russia does well enough to support itself and whatever it needs, but it cannot afford to feed additional 44 million people, pensions, benefits, healthcare, etc. Not many countries could. --
Keep in mind that this is present day Ukraine, now imagine a Ukraine that just got levelled by missiles and had its already-poor-infrastructure destroyed. We are talking trillions of RUB, Putin is smarter than this. Ukraine does not offer any potential to profit.
2. Putin has been at the helm for many years, in different forms. The sentiment between the Ukrainians and Russians is hot at the moment. Putin's velvet takeover of Crimea.. if you will, was peaceful without any casualties, this gave Putin a lot of points at home.
Ukraine does have the potential to inflict casualties on Russian troops. Make no mistake, Russia can overrun Ukraine in a matter of days, if not hours, but some casualties are likely as the West would actively work to make this happen. This would have a negative effect on --
Putin's ratings in Russia. The Russian population would not be happy. Putin cannot afford to lose his support at home.
3. Propaganda
"You will only hear what you want to hear." This has largely been the case with how this whole situation unfolded.
NATO, Year by year, expanded towards Russian borders, despite promising Russia they would not. NATO has backed a war against Russia in 2008, which --
"You will only hear what you want to hear." This has largely been the case with how this whole situation unfolded.
NATO, Year by year, expanded towards Russian borders, despite promising Russia they would not. NATO has backed a war against Russia in 2008, which --
NATO lost. The Russian military has achieved the highest level of modernization in the world, as well as massively improving basically every aspect of its conditions. Training, facilities, high tech equipment, safety, recon, combat experience, etc. --
The Russia of 2008 and the Russia of 2022 are entirely different countries. Russia stood by and let it happen in 2008. They will not let it happen again. NATO's eastward expansion was followed by a coup in Ukraine which saw the rise of western backed anti-Russian sentiment. --
At which point, it was still all calm. However, when NATO attempted another expansion directly on Russia's doorstep, Putin said enough. And that is how all of this unfolded.
The media told us Putin just decided, out of the blue, to invade Ukraine, and most believe them. That is-
The media told us Putin just decided, out of the blue, to invade Ukraine, and most believe them. That is-
simply not the case. Russia's action is a reaction -- to action by Ukraine, which is being controlled by NATO.
The whole point of arguing why Russia won't invade is simply foolish, all you need to do is look at the real version of events.
The whole point of arguing why Russia won't invade is simply foolish, all you need to do is look at the real version of events.
If Mexico started large scale military drills with China, the US would behave 10x worse, and so would every country. Deploying troops within your own territory is not a threat, its a security measure.
4. All you need to do is listen to Russia's statements.
Russia has publicly stated that they will intervene in Donbas militarily if the Ukrainian forces attempt to retake the breakaway republics my military force.
Russia is not interested in Ukraine, they are interested in --
Russia has publicly stated that they will intervene in Donbas militarily if the Ukrainian forces attempt to retake the breakaway republics my military force.
Russia is not interested in Ukraine, they are interested in --
its breakaway republics, which now include hundred of thousands of Russian citizens and Russian speaking Ukrainians who are overwhelmingly welcoming to being a part of Russia, or being independent from Ukraine, who they see as an aggressor.
5. Russia has the benefit of the doubt
Less and less Europeans see Russia as a military threat. All claims made by the US and NATO are groundless; Russia has not even attempted to take action on any of its EU neighbours, nor have they displayed hostility towards them. --
Less and less Europeans see Russia as a military threat. All claims made by the US and NATO are groundless; Russia has not even attempted to take action on any of its EU neighbours, nor have they displayed hostility towards them. --
If Russia invaded Ukraine, this would cause panic in Europe, which would be greatly exploited by the US and the UK's rhetoric. EU would start arming up for a war with Russia, and Russia would see its trade completely under sanctions. Yes, Russia is not affected --
by western sanctions anymore, certainly not to the point where it would destroy its economy, but nobody wants that for various reasons, mainly the restriction of visas for Russians and access to international markets for various industries.
Russia is attempting to compete with its western counterparts in basically all spheres of business, and it has taken Russia long years to get to this point. Annexing Ukraine would see Putin's effort wiped overnight. This simply isn't how Putin does things.
6. China and Russia
China is increasingly more and more public with Russia being its ally. There's a clear goal of displaying unity. China is the largest economy on the planet who is rapidly expanding in every sphere. China does this through soft power. --
China is increasingly more and more public with Russia being its ally. There's a clear goal of displaying unity. China is the largest economy on the planet who is rapidly expanding in every sphere. China does this through soft power. --
Russia is profiting greatly from its deep relations with the Chinese govt. Russia sees itself rising on the world stage year by year, a move like this would undo all of this and highly likely, force China to cut its public affiliation with Putin. China is gaining the trust of --
the population of Europe, Asia, South America & even North America through its non-aggressive approach. China rarely ever associates itself with North Korea on the int'l stage, for obvious reasons. -- Its highly likely that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would see the same effect.
7. Summarization
Russia does not stand to profit from a Russian invasion of Ukraine in any way. Not politically, not monetarily and definitely not economically. That would basically be political suicide for Putin.
The only possibility is Donbas, if the war is --
Russia does not stand to profit from a Russian invasion of Ukraine in any way. Not politically, not monetarily and definitely not economically. That would basically be political suicide for Putin.
The only possibility is Donbas, if the war is --
restarted by Ukraine. NATO is actively supplying Ukraine with drones, offensive weapons and training which is straight up being reported as "how to kill Russians" --
In conclusion, the ONLY country that would profit from Russia-Ukraine war is the US. US sanctions against --
In conclusion, the ONLY country that would profit from Russia-Ukraine war is the US. US sanctions against --
Russia have failed spectacularly. They had the opposite effect, in fact. They drove Russia to self-sustainability and tight relations with China, which the US also tried to undermine but failed. The US lost the diplomatic war against Russia and China.
---- Here's the thread from another POV - why Russia might invade Ukraine
Loading suggestions...