1/8 Some weekly thoughts on the market.
Why are so many people focused on calling the bottom?
In bear markets, markets feel like a sinkhole. You put your hard earned money to your portfolio, and it just keeps disappearing. Not fun.
Why are so many people focused on calling the bottom?
In bear markets, markets feel like a sinkhole. You put your hard earned money to your portfolio, and it just keeps disappearing. Not fun.
2/8 Since markets start to feel like a hot stove, we don't want to touch it anymore. We want to wait when things cool down. So we keep wondering whether things have indeed cooled down.
I really doubt, however, whether any bottoming in the market ever becomes "obvious".
I really doubt, however, whether any bottoming in the market ever becomes "obvious".
3/8 During Covid, market bottomed in March 23, 2020. @SuperMugatu wrote this piece on May 08, 2020 titled "Devilβs Advocate β The Bull Case"
Almost one and half month after market bottomed last time, being bullish was contrarian.
@dan_60967/devils-advocate-the-bull-case-338718cf177c" target="_blank" rel="noopener" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">medium.com
Almost one and half month after market bottomed last time, being bullish was contrarian.
@dan_60967/devils-advocate-the-bull-case-338718cf177c" target="_blank" rel="noopener" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">medium.com
4/8 Every rally in a bear market feels like a bear trap, and we can only know in hindsight whether it was a bottom or a dead cat bounce.
6/8 The reality, however, is when the bull market goes on for a long time, almost everyone perhaps eventually may end up owning some "Pets dot com"
The challenge is markets will almost certainly make new all-time high at some point, but the "Pets dot com" may not be around.
The challenge is markets will almost certainly make new all-time high at some point, but the "Pets dot com" may not be around.
7/8 Public equities investing may have been democratized a long time ago, but *successfully* investing actively will/can never be democratized. As "Margin Call" puts it:
"...there have always been and there always will be the same percentage of winners and losers...
"...there have always been and there always will be the same percentage of winners and losers...
8/8 ...Happy foxes and sad sacks, Fat cats and starving dogs in this world. Yeah, there may be more of us today than there's ever been. But the percentages-they stay exactly the same."
Enjoy your weekend!
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Enjoy your weekend!
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