Mostly Borrowed Ideas
Mostly Borrowed Ideas

@borrowed_ideas

8 Tweets Jan 29, 2023
1/8 Some weekly thoughts on the market.
Why are so many people focused on calling the bottom?
In bear markets, markets feel like a sinkhole. You put your hard earned money to your portfolio, and it just keeps disappearing. Not fun.
2/8 Since markets start to feel like a hot stove, we don't want to touch it anymore. We want to wait when things cool down. So we keep wondering whether things have indeed cooled down.
I really doubt, however, whether any bottoming in the market ever becomes "obvious".
3/8 During Covid, market bottomed in March 23, 2020. @SuperMugatu wrote this piece on May 08, 2020 titled "Devil’s Advocate β€” The Bull Case"
Almost one and half month after market bottomed last time, being bullish was contrarian.
@dan_60967/devils-advocate-the-bull-case-338718cf177c" target="_blank" rel="noopener" onclick="event.stopPropagation()">medium.com
4/8 Every rally in a bear market feels like a bear trap, and we can only know in hindsight whether it was a bottom or a dead cat bounce.
5/8 The one thing that I keep reminding myself is this quote from "The Brooklyn Investor": "If you owned, say, BRK in 1999, who cares what the market valued Pets.com at? Just don't buy Pets.com!"
6/8 The reality, however, is when the bull market goes on for a long time, almost everyone perhaps eventually may end up owning some "Pets dot com"
The challenge is markets will almost certainly make new all-time high at some point, but the "Pets dot com" may not be around.
7/8 Public equities investing may have been democratized a long time ago, but *successfully* investing actively will/can never be democratized. As "Margin Call" puts it:
"...there have always been and there always will be the same percentage of winners and losers...
8/8 ...Happy foxes and sad sacks, Fat cats and starving dogs in this world. Yeah, there may be more of us today than there's ever been. But the percentages-they stay exactly the same."
Enjoy your weekend!
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