DMK and its electoral dominance in Chennai
Tamil Nadu post 1967, has elected 3042 MLAs from its 234 constituencies across 13 elections. Out of this DMK has won 1127 MLA terms @ strike rate of 37.1% that goes up to 46.4% as DMK+ allies. But in Chennai this is a stunning 71%.
Tamil Nadu post 1967, has elected 3042 MLAs from its 234 constituencies across 13 elections. Out of this DMK has won 1127 MLA terms @ strike rate of 37.1% that goes up to 46.4% as DMK+ allies. But in Chennai this is a stunning 71%.
Chennai district has had 24 Assembly constituencies, both current & those expired due to delimitation. The city has elected 219 MLAs over 13 elections from 1967 with DMK+ claiming a whopping 155 of them. Out of 24 seats, DMK+ has a strike rate in excess of 70% in 15 of them.
These are 15 Dominant strongholds only affected by anti DMK waves of 1991 & 2011. Only black swans can sink DMK in these seats. In 6 of the remaining 9 seats, it has comfortable 50-70% strike rate. Only 3 seats does the party go below 50%. No seat does it go below 30%. No lacuna.
This data has to be viewed in context of DMK in overall TN, having only 37.1% strike rate in last 13 elections combined. There were 5 occasions where DMK lost TN badly but routed ADMK in Chennai. 77, 80, 84, 01 & 16. Even undefeated MGR could never win even a third in the city.
Only Mylapore, T Nagar & Royapuram see ADMK & DMK sharing spoils with each winning them almost equally. RK Nagar is the only bastion for ADMK where it has won 6 times more than DMK+.
So why does DMK almost doubles its strike rate from 37% in TN to 71% in Chennai? Few reasons:
So why does DMK almost doubles its strike rate from 37% in TN to 71% in Chennai? Few reasons:
1. Minority vote bank. TN Religious minorities are a highly urban group in TN, with more focus on urban professions than rural-agro based ones. As per 2011 census, Minorities in TN are about 13%, with decadal growth rate of 1% leading to 14% now. Their urban concentration means
Chennai would have 20%+ easily with Crypto-Christianity included. Opinion creating power of minorities is very considerable in Chennai in arts, education & media. Brahmins used to be strong in this, but have lost out. Very high vote participation of minorities also favors DMK.
2. Govt-reliant ecosystem. Number of Govt employees, teachers, pensioners, unions and people employed by that ecosystem is very highly concentrated in Chennai. This a cross sectional loyal DMK vote bank cutting across castes & class. Party has patronized them well over decades.
3. Caste dynamics: No single numerically dominant caste in Chennai like most districts in TN have. Brahminsโ10%, minoritiesโ20% can be deduced from their TN pop. Significant lingual minorities exist, % unclear as most identify as Tamils. Non-TN labour is an unknown but present.
SCs are 17% but Dalit identity politics in Chennai is still in its infancy. All other castes are split into minor numbers, resulting in no major caste conscious or polarization. People tend to vote as individuals & Dravidam as non-Brahmin caste neutral plank appeals better here.
4. Birth place of Non-Brahmin movement. After all it was the birthplace of Justice party/Dravidian movement. DMK carries that legacy. Thyagaraya Nagar, Panagal Park, Natesan Park, Kalaivanar Hall, Anna Univ, GN Chetty rd, etc. Chennai feels like a memorabilia to Justice party.
This ideological root makes it a DMK home ground. The traditional DK/DMK backing communities of Mudaliars/ Naidus/ Chettiars are very powerful communities in Chennai in terms of land & business & have a lot of goodwill among the population. Ironically they run both the temples &
are vote banks for an atheist DMK too, demonstrating control of entire social sphere in the city. Reason being anti-Brahmin sentiment. Chennai is the only place in TN where anti-Brahmin rhetoric works till today due to their significant population & dominance in sectors like IT.
5. Chennai Intellectual class Exceptionalism. Similar to the Bhadralok of Kolkata, Chennai has its own Dravidian intellectual class always tuning/informing the middle & underclass of the city. Narrative control. Neither MGR nor Jaya could break this.
DMK has nurtured an ecosystem through media/arts/intellectual opinion creation. The city is unique from rest of TN in this. DMK seems to have satisfied a certain intellectual hunger for the Chennai Elite & middle class, while MGR/Jaya were more the leaders of the under class.
An empirical proof of this is the only few seats where MGR/Jaya held some ground were in North Chennai, fishermen dominated, less privileged part of the city. Even Mylapore, a so called Brahmin seat, has been won by DMK 6 times right from Rama Arangannal to Ramajayam to Kapali.
Chennai has a huge 17%+ SC population, rise of Dalit politics outside Dravidam here could change dynamics. BJP's rise with Anna could reflect in seats with favorable demographics. NTK seems to be popular among the youth of the city. But nothing on horizon to challenge DMK's 50%+.
Chennai to DMK is what California is for democrats in US. DMK starts with a 15% vote advantage in any election. Now post Jaya, its virtually unbeatable.
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