"Three Times Wiser" is a newsletter about big ideas, mental models, brain bugs, and principles of wise thinking.
This thread will be updated on a daily basis.
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This thread will be updated on a daily basis.
Subscribe here for more insights and never miss an update:
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Issue #1 - CIA Graphic Register, Chimpanzee Test & Confusopoly
threetimeswiser.substack.com
threetimeswiser.substack.com
The CIA Graphic Register
The incredible CIA archive of photographs which was collected from all over the world.
geni.us
The incredible CIA archive of photographs which was collected from all over the world.
geni.us
The Chimpanzee Test
When chimpanzees have better test scores than people basing their decisions on either βknowledgeβ or βeducatedβ guesses.
geni.us
When chimpanzees have better test scores than people basing their decisions on either βknowledgeβ or βeducatedβ guesses.
geni.us
Confusopoly
An industry in which price competition is eliminated by making products and services so confusing that customers canβt sort through the complexity.
geni.us
An industry in which price competition is eliminated by making products and services so confusing that customers canβt sort through the complexity.
geni.us
Issue #2 - Law of Truly Large Numbers, Energy of Motion & Load Theory
threetimeswiser.substack.com
threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Law of (Truly) Large Numbers
True probability of any event is borne out in the frequency with which the event occurs over a number of trials as that number goes to infinity.
Given a large enough sample size, any outrageous thing is bound to happen.
geni.us
True probability of any event is borne out in the frequency with which the event occurs over a number of trials as that number goes to infinity.
Given a large enough sample size, any outrageous thing is bound to happen.
geni.us
Energy of Motion
A chocolate chip cookie contains more energy than TNT. It's the energy of motion that makes it powerful.
geni.us
A chocolate chip cookie contains more energy than TNT. It's the energy of motion that makes it powerful.
geni.us
Load Theory
Attention is not a gas tank, the amount of attention you have remains constant. It just gets used differently.
geni.us
Attention is not a gas tank, the amount of attention you have remains constant. It just gets used differently.
geni.us
Issue #3 - Tony Marsh Method, Morphological Thinking & Worm's Eye View
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Tony Marsh Method
Encode the memory as closely as possible to the environment in which it will be retrieved.
geni.us
Encode the memory as closely as possible to the environment in which it will be retrieved.
geni.us
Morphological Thinking
Approach every problem with a completely open mind, analyzing all possible solutions, no matter how far-fetched.
Developed by Fritz Zwicky, the astrophysicist who discovered what we now call dark matter.
geni.us
Approach every problem with a completely open mind, analyzing all possible solutions, no matter how far-fetched.
Developed by Fritz Zwicky, the astrophysicist who discovered what we now call dark matter.
geni.us
Worm's Eye View
You can't fix a problem just by taking a top-down view. You also need to look at the world bottom-up, through the workersβ eyes.
Think more like an anthropologist.
geni.us
You can't fix a problem just by taking a top-down view. You also need to look at the world bottom-up, through the workersβ eyes.
Think more like an anthropologist.
geni.us
Issue #4 - Milesβs Law, Wrong-Side-of-Maybe Fallacy & Gatekeepers
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
Milesβs Law
Where you stand depends on where you sit.
Human social views (and behavior) arise from the institutions in which people live and work, especially when those settings create incentives for particular beliefs, priorities, or justifications.
geni.us
Where you stand depends on where you sit.
Human social views (and behavior) arise from the institutions in which people live and work, especially when those settings create incentives for particular beliefs, priorities, or justifications.
geni.us
The Wrong-side-of-maybe Fallacy
People always judge the same way: they look at which side of 50% the probability was on.
If the forecast said there was a 70% chance of rain and it rains, people think the forecast was right; if not, it was wrong.
geni.us
People always judge the same way: they look at which side of 50% the probability was on.
If the forecast said there was a 70% chance of rain and it rains, people think the forecast was right; if not, it was wrong.
geni.us
The Gatekeepers
There are points along the communication channel where decisions are made about what stays in and what gets left out. The people who have the power to operate these gates become crucial in the flow of information.
geni.us
There are points along the communication channel where decisions are made about what stays in and what gets left out. The people who have the power to operate these gates become crucial in the flow of information.
geni.us
Issue #5 - Agenda-Setting Theory, Focusing Illusion & Dystopian Tale
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
Agenda-setting Theory
The press may not be successful most of the time in telling people what to think, but it is stunningly successful in telling them what to think about.
geni.us
The press may not be successful most of the time in telling people what to think, but it is stunningly successful in telling them what to think about.
geni.us
The Focusing Illusion
Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it.
geni.us
Nothing in life is as important as you think it is while you are thinking about it.
geni.us
A Dystopian Tale
In a fictional, dystopian tale, a small group of powerful and evil men decide to devise a plan to control the planet. How to do?
geni.us
In a fictional, dystopian tale, a small group of powerful and evil men decide to devise a plan to control the planet. How to do?
geni.us
Issue #6 - Deliberate Ignorance, Mind Reading Illusion & Scout Soldier Mindset
threetimeswiser.substack.com
threetimeswiser.substack.com
Deliberate Ignorance
Intentionally ignoring a fact when one has every reason to believe about its existence.
It's the choice not to know.
geni.us
Intentionally ignoring a fact when one has every reason to believe about its existence.
It's the choice not to know.
geni.us
The Mind Reading Illusion
We generally believe we are good at mind reading while also believing other people are not.
geni.us
We generally believe we are good at mind reading while also believing other people are not.
geni.us
Scout vs Soldier Mindset
The soldier mindset encourages you to defend your positions at any cost.
The scout mindset helps you to recognize when you are wrong, seek out your blind spots, test your assumptions and change course.
geni.us
The soldier mindset encourages you to defend your positions at any cost.
The scout mindset helps you to recognize when you are wrong, seek out your blind spots, test your assumptions and change course.
geni.us
Issue #7 - Man's Dilemma, Arkism & 10:10:10 Strategy
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
Man's Dilemma
We are split in two: we have an awareness of our own uniqueness and yet we know that we are going to die one day, like anything alive.
geni.us
We are split in two: we have an awareness of our own uniqueness and yet we know that we are going to die one day, like anything alive.
geni.us
The 10:10:10 Strategy
This strategy makes us think about the longer-term impact of the current decision facing us.
How will I feel 10 minutes from now? 10 hours from now? 10 days from now?
Donβt make decisions based on immediate gratification.
geni.us
This strategy makes us think about the longer-term impact of the current decision facing us.
How will I feel 10 minutes from now? 10 hours from now? 10 days from now?
Donβt make decisions based on immediate gratification.
geni.us
Issue #8 - Collingridge Dilemma, Control Paradox & Far Transfer
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Collingridge Dilemma
When change is easy, the need for it cannot be foreseen.
When the need for change is apparent, change has become expensive, difficult, and time-consuming.
geni.us
When change is easy, the need for it cannot be foreseen.
When the need for change is apparent, change has become expensive, difficult, and time-consuming.
geni.us
The Control Paradox
Often trying to gain more and better control simultaneously increases the risk of losing control.
geni.us
Often trying to gain more and better control simultaneously increases the risk of losing control.
geni.us
Far Transfer
It's the holy grail of education: the ability to apply relevant learning to unfamiliar situations.
You understand a concept, skill, theory, or domain of knowledge to the extent that you can apply it appropriately in a new situation.
geni.us
It's the holy grail of education: the ability to apply relevant learning to unfamiliar situations.
You understand a concept, skill, theory, or domain of knowledge to the extent that you can apply it appropriately in a new situation.
geni.us
Issue #9 - Profilicity, Voting Machine & Unbelieving
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
Profilicity
We are shaping our identities on the basis of how we might be perceived by an amorphous and abstract being like a beauty contest in which judges choose the face they think will be most popular, rather than the ones they find most attractive.
ft.com
We are shaping our identities on the basis of how we might be perceived by an amorphous and abstract being like a beauty contest in which judges choose the face they think will be most popular, rather than the ones they find most attractive.
ft.com
The Voting Machine
The market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term.
wsj.com
The market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term.
wsj.com
Unbelieving
In order to comprehend an idea, our brains initially accept it as true, even if only momentarily, it therefore takes more effort to reject an idea than to accept it.
In order to disavow it, we must go through a process of βunbelievingβ.
ft.com
In order to comprehend an idea, our brains initially accept it as true, even if only momentarily, it therefore takes more effort to reject an idea than to accept it.
In order to disavow it, we must go through a process of βunbelievingβ.
ft.com
Issue #10 - Thatcher Illusion, Man in the Car Paradox & Backwards Law
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Backwards Law
The more you pursue feeling better all the time, the less satisfied you become, as pursuing something only reinforces the fact that you lack it in the first place.
geni.us
The more you pursue feeling better all the time, the less satisfied you become, as pursuing something only reinforces the fact that you lack it in the first place.
geni.us
Issue #11 - Theranos' Shortcuts, Destabilising Stability & Challenger Mode
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
Theranos' Shortcuts
People too easily equate confidence with competence. When you are blown away by someoneβs charisma, ask yourself what you really know.
economist.com
People too easily equate confidence with competence. When you are blown away by someoneβs charisma, ask yourself what you really know.
economist.com
Destabilizing Stability
Societies grow rasher and more reckless as their memories of past crises fade.
ft.com
Societies grow rasher and more reckless as their memories of past crises fade.
ft.com
The Challenger Mode
While algorithms are an easy target, they arenβt really the problem; people are.
ft.com
While algorithms are an easy target, they arenβt really the problem; people are.
ft.com
Issue #12 - Dirty Lens Problem, Fly-Eye Effect & Wait, What?
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Dirty Lens Problem
We are all creatures of our own cultural environment, prone to lazy assumptions and biases.
You do not act like a neutral microscope (i.e. consistent tools of observation), you have biases (i.e. dirt) on your mental lens.
geni.us
We are all creatures of our own cultural environment, prone to lazy assumptions and biases.
You do not act like a neutral microscope (i.e. consistent tools of observation), you have biases (i.e. dirt) on your mental lens.
geni.us
The Fly-Eye Effect
The power of small details in focusing people's attention in a particular direction.
By placing stickers of flies on urinals, Amsterdam airport officials reduced spillage by 80%.
The disdain for flies compels people to aim for it.
geni.us
The power of small details in focusing people's attention in a particular direction.
By placing stickers of flies on urinals, Amsterdam airport officials reduced spillage by 80%.
The disdain for flies compels people to aim for it.
geni.us
Wait, What?
Way to avoid jumping to conclusions or making snap judgments.
Too often we decide very early whether we agree or disagree with someone or with an idea, without making an effort to truly understand the person or the point.
geni.us
Way to avoid jumping to conclusions or making snap judgments.
Too often we decide very early whether we agree or disagree with someone or with an idea, without making an effort to truly understand the person or the point.
geni.us
Issue #13 - Pre-suasion, Shallowing Hypothesis & Poliheuristic Decision Theory
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
Pre-suasion
The process of arranging for recipients to be receptive to a message before they encounter it.
To persuade optimally, then, itβs necessary to pre-suade optimally.
Pre-suasion is the frontloading of attention.
geni.us
The process of arranging for recipients to be receptive to a message before they encounter it.
To persuade optimally, then, itβs necessary to pre-suade optimally.
Pre-suasion is the frontloading of attention.
geni.us
The Shallowing Hypothesis
New media technologies have led to a decline in ordinary daily reflective thought.
geni.us
New media technologies have led to a decline in ordinary daily reflective thought.
geni.us
Poliheuristic Decision Theory
People apply heuristic shortcuts in their initial consideration of decision options but act rationally thereafter.
geni.us
People apply heuristic shortcuts in their initial consideration of decision options but act rationally thereafter.
geni.us
Issue #14 - Halfpinion, Average Man Pitfall & Friendship Paradox
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Average Man Pitfall
There is no such a thing as an average man. Any system designed around the average person is doomed to fail.
geni.us
There is no such a thing as an average man. Any system designed around the average person is doomed to fail.
geni.us
Issue #15 - Liquid Modernity, Status Syndrome & Percolation Lattice
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
Liquid Modernity
Change is the only permanence, and uncertainty the only certainty.
A hundred years ago to be modern meant to chase the final state of perfection. Now, it means an infinity of improvement, with no final state in sight and none desired.
geni.us
Change is the only permanence, and uncertainty the only certainty.
A hundred years ago to be modern meant to chase the final state of perfection. Now, it means an infinity of improvement, with no final state in sight and none desired.
geni.us
Status Syndrome
Your social standing directly affects your health and life expectancy: Consistently better health is found with graded increases in social class.
geni.us
Your social standing directly affects your health and life expectancy: Consistently better health is found with graded increases in social class.
geni.us
Percolation Lattice
For long-lasting learning and understanding, make bonds; connect each new fact and idea to what you already know.
This way of thinking will help you learn in one year what can take twenty.
geni.us
For long-lasting learning and understanding, make bonds; connect each new fact and idea to what you already know.
This way of thinking will help you learn in one year what can take twenty.
geni.us
Issue #16 - Decision Hygiene, Attribution Bias & Broaden-and-build Theory
threetimeswiser.substack.com
threetimeswiser.substack.com
Decision Hygiene
A process to improve the quality of decision-making and prevent an unspecified range of potential errors before they occur.
geni.us
A process to improve the quality of decision-making and prevent an unspecified range of potential errors before they occur.
geni.us
The Attribution Bias
The systematic errors that a person makes when they try to find reasons for their own behaviors and motivations as well as the behaviors and motivations of others.
geni.us
The systematic errors that a person makes when they try to find reasons for their own behaviors and motivations as well as the behaviors and motivations of others.
geni.us
Broaden-and-build Theory
Positive emotions broaden one's awareness and encourage novel, exploratory thoughts, and actions.
geni.us
Positive emotions broaden one's awareness and encourage novel, exploratory thoughts, and actions.
geni.us
Issue #17 - Greatest Happiness Principle, Easterlin Paradox & Hedonic Adaptation
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Greatest Happiness Principle
Happiness is the ultimate criterion to establish what is moral and what is not. The ideal moral society is one where everybody is happy and everybody is free of pain.
geni.us
Happiness is the ultimate criterion to establish what is moral and what is not. The ideal moral society is one where everybody is happy and everybody is free of pain.
geni.us
The Easterlin Paradox
At a point in time happiness varies directly with income, but over time happiness does not trend upward as income continues to grow.
In other words, your gut says making more money will make you happier, but your gut is wrong.
geni.us
At a point in time happiness varies directly with income, but over time happiness does not trend upward as income continues to grow.
In other words, your gut says making more money will make you happier, but your gut is wrong.
geni.us
Hedonic Adaptation
The tendency of us mere humans to quickly return to a relatively stable level of happiness despite major recent positive or negative events or life changes.
geni.us
The tendency of us mere humans to quickly return to a relatively stable level of happiness despite major recent positive or negative events or life changes.
geni.us
Issue #18 - Ergodic Switch, Rich Ratio & Business Dad Paradox
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Ergodic Switch
When to use information about a group to draw conclusions about individual members of the group.
Hint: You can't understand individuals by ignoring their individuality.
geni.us
When to use information about a group to draw conclusions about individual members of the group.
Hint: You can't understand individuals by ignoring their individuality.
geni.us
The Rich Ratio
The simplest way to measure the amount of money you have in relation to the amount of money you need:
Have Γ· Need = Rich Ratio
If your income is $1 million, but your spending needs are $2 million (Rich Ratio 0.5), then you are poor.
geni.us
The simplest way to measure the amount of money you have in relation to the amount of money you need:
Have Γ· Need = Rich Ratio
If your income is $1 million, but your spending needs are $2 million (Rich Ratio 0.5), then you are poor.
geni.us
The Business Dad Paradox
Increased efficiency means more of the most precious commodity: time. But time for what, exactly? Usually, to do more work.
geni.us
Increased efficiency means more of the most precious commodity: time. But time for what, exactly? Usually, to do more work.
geni.us
Issue #19 - Basketball Politics, Beautiful Mess Effect & Uncertain Rewards
Excerpts from @thetimes, @sciam, and @WSJ.
Paid subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from @thetimes, @sciam, and @WSJ.
Paid subscriber-only.
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Issue #20 - Zhuangziβs Butterfly, Pygmalion Effect & People's CMO Model
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Paid subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Paid subscriber-only.
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Issue #21 - Swimmerβs Body Illusion, Garden's Law & Pluralistic Ignorance
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Swimmerβs Body Illusion
Professional swimmers donβt have perfect bodies because they train extensively. They are good swimmers because of their physiques. How their bodies are designed is a factor for selection and not the result of their activities.
geni.us
Professional swimmers donβt have perfect bodies because they train extensively. They are good swimmers because of their physiques. How their bodies are designed is a factor for selection and not the result of their activities.
geni.us
Issue #22 - Batesian Mimicry, Sturgeonβs Law & Vlad the Mad Theory
Excerpts from @newscientist, @WSJ, and @FT.
Paid subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from @newscientist, @WSJ, and @FT.
Paid subscriber-only.
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Issue #23 - Unreliable Narrator, Told Genotype Effect & Competency Trap
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Paid subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Paid subscriber-only.
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Issue #24 - Algorithmic Happiness Problem, Negentropy & Baseball Pitchers
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Algorithmic Happiness Problem
Happiness isn't a solvable equation. Dissatisfaction is an inherent part of human nature and a necessary component to creating consistent happiness. True happiness occurs only when you find the problems you enjoy having.
geni.us
Happiness isn't a solvable equation. Dissatisfaction is an inherent part of human nature and a necessary component to creating consistent happiness. True happiness occurs only when you find the problems you enjoy having.
geni.us
Negentropy
The tendency for complex, even chaotic issues to be simplified and reduced over time.
geni.us
The tendency for complex, even chaotic issues to be simplified and reduced over time.
geni.us
Issue #25 - SIR Model, Societal Wealth & Positive Deviance
Excerpts from @thetimes, @WSJ, and @ScienceNews.
Paid subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from @thetimes, @WSJ, and @ScienceNews.
Paid subscriber-only.
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Issue #26 - James-Lange Theory, Pattern Shortcut & Adjacent Possibilities
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Issue #27 - Veil of Ignorance, Norma Look-alike Competition & Reverse Outlining
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Veil of Ignorance
All people are biased by their situations. By being ignorant of our circumstances, we can more objectively consider how societies should operate.
geni.us
All people are biased by their situations. By being ignorant of our circumstances, we can more objectively consider how societies should operate.
geni.us
Reverse Outlining
Working backward and outlining the major points contained within a completed piece.
geni.us
Working backward and outlining the major points contained within a completed piece.
geni.us
Issue #28 - Digital Kompromat, Drucebo Effect & Philosophical Bankruptcy
Excerpts from @thetimes, @FT , and @Telegraph.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from @thetimes, @FT , and @Telegraph.
Subscriber-only.
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Issue #29 - Coolidge Effect, Volunteerβs Folly & Just-World Bias
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Issue #30 - Greater Fool Theory, MicroMort & Hume's Paradox
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Greater Fool Theory
The value of a security or asset class does not matter that much as long as you can sell to a greater fool than yourself at an even more ridiculous price than you paid.
geni.us
The value of a security or asset class does not matter that much as long as you can sell to a greater fool than yourself at an even more ridiculous price than you paid.
geni.us
MicroMort
A one-in-a-million chance of something fatally dramatic happening to Mr. Average on an average day.
It's like a form of imaginary Russian roulette in which 20 coins are thrown in the air: if they all come down heads, the subject is executed.
geni.us
A one-in-a-million chance of something fatally dramatic happening to Mr. Average on an average day.
It's like a form of imaginary Russian roulette in which 20 coins are thrown in the air: if they all come down heads, the subject is executed.
geni.us
Hume's Paradox
In any society, the population submits to the rulers, even though force is always in the hands of the governed.
geni.us
In any society, the population submits to the rulers, even though force is always in the hands of the governed.
geni.us
Issue #31 - Fresh Start Effect, Boots Theory & Moral Licensing
Excerpts from @FT, @guardian and @thetimes.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from @FT, @guardian and @thetimes.
Subscriber-only.
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Issue #32 - Counterclockwise Study, Big Numbers & Societal Change Framework
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
threetimeswiser.substack.com
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Issue #33 - Fund of Experience, Weakness-Into-Strength Positioning & Fire Ratio
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
Fund of Experience
The free gift of the knowledge that has cost those in the lead much to achieve enables those who follow to reach the same level at a much smaller cost.
geni.us
The free gift of the knowledge that has cost those in the lead much to achieve enables those who follow to reach the same level at a much smaller cost.
geni.us
The Weakness-Into-Strength Positioning
To turn weaknesses into strengths you need to speak up about them. That way, you can control peopleβs perception of the weakness and recast it as a strength.
geni.us
To turn weaknesses into strengths you need to speak up about them. That way, you can control peopleβs perception of the weakness and recast it as a strength.
geni.us
The Fire Ratio
In the Second World War, only 20 percent of the soldiers did the work.
This statistic is the usual one, illustrating the economist Vilfredo Paretoβs principle of the vital few, also known as the 80β20 law.
geni.us
In the Second World War, only 20 percent of the soldiers did the work.
This statistic is the usual one, illustrating the economist Vilfredo Paretoβs principle of the vital few, also known as the 80β20 law.
geni.us
Issue #34 - Maltese Falcon, Trust Uncertainty & First Impressions
Excerpts from @FT, @WSJ and @TheEconomist .
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from @FT, @WSJ and @TheEconomist .
Subscriber-only.
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Issue #35 - Turing Complete, Principle of Psychoprofessional Gravitation & Eaglemanβs Experiment
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Issue #36 - Hyperthymesia, Single-Action Bias & Deterrence Paradox
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
Hyperthymesia
Highly superior autobiographical memory. It is exceedingly rare, seen in only a handful of people.
geni.us
Highly superior autobiographical memory. It is exceedingly rare, seen in only a handful of people.
geni.us
The Single-Action Bias
When the sense of satisfaction from a good deed diminishes or eliminates the sense of urgency around the greater problem.
geni.us
When the sense of satisfaction from a good deed diminishes or eliminates the sense of urgency around the greater problem.
geni.us
The Deterrence Paradox
If you can only deter an enemy by sincerely threatening retaliation which you know you will not want to carry out, you will not be able to form the intention to retaliate because you know you wonβt fulfill it.
geni.us
If you can only deter an enemy by sincerely threatening retaliation which you know you will not want to carry out, you will not be able to form the intention to retaliate because you know you wonβt fulfill it.
geni.us
Issue #37 - Horizontal Empire, Kharkiv's Panther & Derring Effect
Excerpts from @WSJ, @FT and @newscientist .
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from @WSJ, @FT and @newscientist .
Subscriber-only.
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Issue #38 - Functional Fixedness, Democracy Hallucination & Journalism Field Theory
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Issue #39 - Chick Sexter, Stranger-On-A-Train Effect & Asymmetric Power
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
Chick Sexter
When you know but canβt tell how you know: The surprising difficulty to tell the pullets from cockerels.
geni.us
When you know but canβt tell how you know: The surprising difficulty to tell the pullets from cockerels.
geni.us
The Stranger-On-A-Train Effect
People can sometimes achieve a surprising degree of intimacy with total strangers.
geni.us
People can sometimes achieve a surprising degree of intimacy with total strangers.
geni.us
Asymmetric Power
The master need not know much about the slave. But for the slave, knowing the master is crucial to avoiding beatings and staying alive.
geni.us
The master need not know much about the slave. But for the slave, knowing the master is crucial to avoiding beatings and staying alive.
geni.us
Issue #40 - Face Pareidolia, Proximity Bias & Hairy Hypothesis
Excerpts from @thetimes and @TheEconomist.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from @thetimes and @TheEconomist.
Subscriber-only.
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Issue #41 - Gary Parker Rule, Busyness Paradox & Multiplier Effect
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Issue #42 - Experimenter's Regress, Pathways Principle & Politeness Paradox
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Experimenter's Regress
The results of experiments, particularly surprising ones, can be trusted only if the experiments are known to be sound. But, as is often the case, an experiment is known to be sound only if it produces the results we expect.
The results of experiments, particularly surprising ones, can be trusted only if the experiments are known to be sound. But, as is often the case, an experiment is known to be sound only if it produces the results we expect.
The Pathways Principle
In all aspects of our lives and for any given goal, there are many, equally valid ways to reach the same outcome. And the particular pathway that is optimal for you depends on your own individuality.
geni.us
In all aspects of our lives and for any given goal, there are many, equally valid ways to reach the same outcome. And the particular pathway that is optimal for you depends on your own individuality.
geni.us
The Politeness Paradox
People who tend to be extraordinarily afraid of each other may act in an extremely polite fashion to prevent spirals of revenge. Violence can create a society where friendliness and politeness are the norms.
geni.us
People who tend to be extraordinarily afraid of each other may act in an extremely polite fashion to prevent spirals of revenge. Violence can create a society where friendliness and politeness are the norms.
geni.us
Issue #43 - Cognitive Miserliness, Free Speech Paradox & Shrinkflation
Excerpts from @thetimes and @FT.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from @thetimes and @FT.
Subscriber-only.
threetimeswiser.substack.com
Issue #44 - Pre-Parade, Lock Key Model & Digital Phenotyping
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
threetimeswiser.substack.com
Issue #45 - HupomnΔmata, Explanatory Depth's Illusion & Scrabble Greatness
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
HupomnΔmata
The practice of digesting the insights of our reading by creating a highly personalized repository of notes and reflections.
geni.us
The practice of digesting the insights of our reading by creating a highly personalized repository of notes and reflections.
geni.us
The Explanatory Depthβs Illusion
The belief that we understand more about the world than we actually do.
geni.us
The belief that we understand more about the world than we actually do.
geni.us
Issue #46 - Self-Interest Fallacy, Failure to Choose & Managerial Trolleyology
Excerpts from @FT, @thetimes and @TheEconomist.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from @FT, @thetimes and @TheEconomist.
Subscriber-only.
threetimeswiser.substack.com
Issue #47 - Psychological Obsolescence, Size Congruity Effect & Manipulation Matrix
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Issue #48- Fermi Method, Zoo Hypothesis & Mediocrity Principle
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Fermi Method
Getting to a βgood enoughβ answer quickly based on a few simple calculations.
It works surprisingly well if the errors in the assumptions are randomly wrong, which is often the case.
geni.us
Getting to a βgood enoughβ answer quickly based on a few simple calculations.
It works surprisingly well if the errors in the assumptions are randomly wrong, which is often the case.
geni.us
The Zoo Hypothesis
Aliens are watching us from space in much the same way humans gawk at animals in a zoo.
geni.us
Aliens are watching us from space in much the same way humans gawk at animals in a zoo.
geni.us
The Mediocrity Principle
Even one or two samples drawn from a larger set are more likely than not to be representative of the larger set. One is better than none.
geni.us
Even one or two samples drawn from a larger set are more likely than not to be representative of the larger set. One is better than none.
geni.us
Issue #49 - Spin Dictators, Syllabus Hypothesis & Illusory Truth Effect
Excerpts from @TheEconomist and @FT.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from @TheEconomist and @FT.
Subscriber-only.
threetimeswiser.substack.com
Issue #50 - Feedback Sandwich, Select-Crowd Strategy & Fraud Paradox
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
threetimeswiser.substack.com
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
threetimeswiser.substack.com
Issue #51- Volvo Effect, Sociometer Theory & Shame Paradox
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
The Volvo Effect
Success in standard tests correlates exceedingly well with the income of one's parents.
The data is so strong that one could make a good guess by simply looking at how many degrees her parents have and what kind of car they drive.
geni.us
Success in standard tests correlates exceedingly well with the income of one's parents.
The data is so strong that one could make a good guess by simply looking at how many degrees her parents have and what kind of car they drive.
geni.us
The Sociometer Theory
Self-esteem is a psychological gauge of the degree to which people perceive that they are relationally valued and socially accepted by other people.
geni.us
Self-esteem is a psychological gauge of the degree to which people perceive that they are relationally valued and socially accepted by other people.
geni.us
The Shame Paradox
Shame can be the vehicle for perpetuating the behavior (destructive shame) as well as the impetus for stopping it (prosocial shame).
geni.us
Shame can be the vehicle for perpetuating the behavior (destructive shame) as well as the impetus for stopping it (prosocial shame).
geni.us
Issue #52 - Information War, Impostor Syndrome & Grand Theory
Excerpts from @FT and @HarvardBiz .
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from @FT and @HarvardBiz .
Subscriber-only.
threetimeswiser.substack.com
Issue #53 - Floating Head Syndrome, Streisand Effect & Paradoxical Theory of Change
Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Excerpts from geni.us, geni.us, and geni.us.
Subscriber-only.
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Issue #54- Curse of Knowledge, Certainty Premium & Gandhi Talisman
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threetimeswiser.substack.com
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