I shall be tweeting on TIA 20-20 2022 episode today. This is being organized by @TIA_Investors .
Thread on previous sessions of TIA 20-20 can be found here :
List of speakers for today's TIA 20 20 Session (2022 Episode) here :
First speaker- G Maran of Unify Capital.
Maran carries 25+ years of investing experience and has been a regular at TIA 20-20 ,seen him , present very unique/niche stock ideas.
Speaks of evolution of broking industry from 1980s, and how it has consolidated into few players today.
Recalls how same happened in Telecom, Banking, Auto industry , as well.
Even in Gold Jewelry retail biz, same being seen - Org sector share is 30% vs nil few decades back..
Recalls how same happened in Telecom, Banking, Auto industry , as well.
Even in Gold Jewelry retail biz, same being seen - Org sector share is 30% vs nil few decades back..
Business consolidation as a theme is good way to hunt for value . Wealth Management is one such.
AUM of MFs /AMCs now 39L cr vs 9 L cr INR a decade back ! Can go up another 3x+ next 10 years.
This biz doesn't need much capital.
His stock idea is IIFL Wealth Management
This biz doesn't need much capital.
His stock idea is IIFL Wealth Management
10 years back 60% of AMC AUM came from 2 Indian cities (Mumbai + NCR). Not case today.
The industry massively expanding and the average age of millionaires is falling, they are in smaller cities = > Wealth management biz seeing exponential growth.
The industry massively expanding and the average age of millionaires is falling, they are in smaller cities = > Wealth management biz seeing exponential growth.
Typical spread on AUM in wealth mgmt biz is 0.4-0.6%.
Concludes saying IIFL is excellent proxy for wealth mgmt growth theme.
Concludes saying IIFL is excellent proxy for wealth mgmt growth theme.
Next speaker is Naveen Chandramohan of ITUS capital , asset management firm. Ex Lehman/Nomura person. His stock Idea is Nykaa.
Nykaa key biz is Beauty & Personal Care (BPC). As incomes rise, BPC spends soar.
What's Nykaa achieved?
Online penetration in BPC in India is at par with developed world (8%)
Discusses key metrics to evaluate a BPC online business .
5.6 mill unique customers..
What's Nykaa achieved?
Online penetration in BPC in India is at par with developed world (8%)
Discusses key metrics to evaluate a BPC online business .
5.6 mill unique customers..
Naveen sheets away from valuation debate (good !). Predicts 4x growth in BPC revenues in 4 years .
They aim to scale B2B biz (sell to salons, small shops like Health & Glow etc - sounds interesting).
5 years revenue projection is 11K cr (from 2K cr today).
Network effect play !
They aim to scale B2B biz (sell to salons, small shops like Health & Glow etc - sounds interesting).
5 years revenue projection is 11K cr (from 2K cr today).
Network effect play !
Speaks of two competitors- Purple and Amazon . Nykaa works on inventory led model and platform led model.
Concludes his idea.
Concludes his idea.
Next speaker is Aveek Mitra. Regular presenter in TIA. CEO in Aveek Advisory, SEBI registered firm. 23 years of investing experience. His investing journey hits : Sun Pharma, IFB industries, VGuard etc.
He Starts saying- Investing isn't difficult but generating consistent returns year after year is hard.
Mentions his past recommendation/idea TCI express, 3x since his recommendation in 2019 TIA
Mentions his past recommendation/idea TCI express, 3x since his recommendation in 2019 TIA
His stock idea - Alicon Castalloys Ltd.
Investment thesis : Pune based company, in Die casting/ used by Auto OEMs.
Has 109 live parts for EV 2W/3W.
9% revenues from EV now, target is 36% by 2026.
Current gloom n doom in Auto is more about demand postponement.
Investment thesis : Pune based company, in Die casting/ used by Auto OEMs.
Has 109 live parts for EV 2W/3W.
9% revenues from EV now, target is 36% by 2026.
Current gloom n doom in Auto is more about demand postponement.
Most negatives behind/267 cr Capex in progress, steady state CFO 100 cr , no equity dilution..
Growth thesis - EVs are heavier than ICE vehicles ,need more usage of aluminum alloy usage.
Listed Competition- Rico, Endurance Tech, Sundaram Clayton .
Concludes his presentation .
Growth thesis - EVs are heavier than ICE vehicles ,need more usage of aluminum alloy usage.
Listed Competition- Rico, Endurance Tech, Sundaram Clayton .
Concludes his presentation .
Next Presenter - Digant Haria. Co founder of GreenEdge Wealth Mgmt firm.
His stock idea is : Bector Foods
Listed in Dec 2020.
Hasn't done much since IPO
Thesis : Long runway of growth, good mgmt.
They r into biscuits, premium bakery products (brown bread)...
His stock idea is : Bector Foods
Listed in Dec 2020.
Hasn't done much since IPO
Thesis : Long runway of growth, good mgmt.
They r into biscuits, premium bakery products (brown bread)...
Supplies to QSRs (Domino etc), does RnD on breads. Now building own brands.
Valuations decent. Inflation right now impacting margins. Mcap 8x OCF.
Bector vs Britannia/Parle - bector focus on niche products mainly in niche mkts.
Export biz under own brand.
Valuations decent. Inflation right now impacting margins. Mcap 8x OCF.
Bector vs Britannia/Parle - bector focus on niche products mainly in niche mkts.
Export biz under own brand.
Highlighs that Bector export to developed world isunique thing . To focus on frozen baked foods for cloud businesses
Well established B2B brand . English Oven is a B2C brand.
Long term it may be acquired at premium. 50-100% upside in 3 yrs possible.
Concludes his presentation.
Well established B2B brand . English Oven is a B2C brand.
Long term it may be acquired at premium. 50-100% upside in 3 yrs possible.
Concludes his presentation.
Next presentation by Nimisha Pandit from Multi Act trade & investment . Among top 100 women investment professionals from India.
Her investment idea is Nesco Ltd.
Started as Capital Goods biz, now into exhibition center biz + leasing out office space.
Her investment idea is Nesco Ltd.
Started as Capital Goods biz, now into exhibition center biz + leasing out office space.
Discusses its IT Park&Exhibition business.
Commercial reality play.
Interesting pt Jio World center (recently opened) a major competitor now.
Key risk is concentration of biz in one city, New Jio World Center, Work From Home trend etc.
18 PE, 2 PB .
Concludes the presentation.
Commercial reality play.
Interesting pt Jio World center (recently opened) a major competitor now.
Key risk is concentration of biz in one city, New Jio World Center, Work From Home trend etc.
18 PE, 2 PB .
Concludes the presentation.
Next speaker is Sriram Sekhar. His idea is Sonata Software.
Mid Sized IT co/ Microsoft partner (Azure), focussed on Retail & Travel verticals. Growing at rate higher than industry . Lower PE than industry seems to be a plus
(HCL Tech even lower?!)
Mentions as zero debt(wonder if there is any tech services
company that isn't so !!)..
(HCL Tech even lower?!)
Mentions as zero debt(wonder if there is any tech services
company that isn't so !!)..
Risks - Currency, Visa and skill retention.
Tgt price is 1050 INR.
Bet is on PE expansion. Their focus on Cloud vertical (Azure) helped them in Covid19 period.
Concludes presentation.
Tgt price is 1050 INR.
Bet is on PE expansion. Their focus on Cloud vertical (Azure) helped them in Covid19 period.
Concludes presentation.
Next speaker isv: Aravind kothari. He founder/MD Niveshaay, SEBI registered Advisory.
His sector is Textile industry.
Mentions his grandfather was Cotton king in 1960s.
Key macro tailwind 4 this sector - Cotton ban by US on Xinjiang/ China, consolidation of industry..
His sector is Textile industry.
Mentions his grandfather was Cotton king in 1960s.
Key macro tailwind 4 this sector - Cotton ban by US on Xinjiang/ China, consolidation of industry..
India's competence is in spinning but weak in Garments.
China's Garment exports is 280 B$, share in US/EU declining.
India industry is consolidating post covid19.
His stock focus: Gokaldas Exports and SP Apparels
China's Garment exports is 280 B$, share in US/EU declining.
India industry is consolidating post covid19.
His stock focus: Gokaldas Exports and SP Apparels
SP Apparel among 2 is unique- it's in Kids wear. High entry barrier business.
Because it's subject to strongest quality measures plus very complex (variety, size etc)
Because it's subject to strongest quality measures plus very complex (variety, size etc)
85% SP Apparel revenues from garments. 53% from UK, Europe 35%.
62% overall capacity utilization. Means scale revenues 50% w.o additional Capex !
18% EBIDTA. Vertically integrated player.
5x EPS scaling by FY26 possible
Concludes presentation.
62% overall capacity utilization. Means scale revenues 50% w.o additional Capex !
18% EBIDTA. Vertically integrated player.
5x EPS scaling by FY26 possible
Concludes presentation.
Next speaker is @jitenkparmar , co-founder of Aurum Capital, known for rich experience and knowledge in cyclical/commodity equities. He is hard-core value investor . Speaks of his evaluation criteria .
His stock idea is : Voltamp Transformers
His stock idea is : Voltamp Transformers
Capital Goods play. Sector went thru pain. Now ok. Net cash Co, all time high order book.
Investment thesis : Upcycle, 500 cr cash, zero debt Co, 2700 cr Mcap, never had loss/dividend miss in 13 years. Survived worst Downturn. Clientele diversified across end use industries.
Investment thesis : Upcycle, 500 cr cash, zero debt Co, 2700 cr Mcap, never had loss/dividend miss in 13 years. Survived worst Downturn. Clientele diversified across end use industries.
50% promoter holding .
Key risk: Raw material cost hike, guvt payments, macro economic risks.
Concludes presentation.
Key risk: Raw material cost hike, guvt payments, macro economic risks.
Concludes presentation.
Next presenter is @varinder_bansal founder of Omkara Capital . Needs no introduction !!
Speaks about growth runway for Manufacturing sector.
Across sectors consolidation is happening (other speakers also mention this ).
Utilization 70% across industries .
Speaks about growth runway for Manufacturing sector.
Across sectors consolidation is happening (other speakers also mention this ).
Utilization 70% across industries .
Deleveraging across sectors, Export revival..
Best Capex cycle of past happened with rising rates (2006-12). 8L cr INR planned capex in pipeline.
Now comes to his stock idea : MM Forgings.
Best Capex cycle of past happened with rising rates (2006-12). 8L cr INR planned capex in pipeline.
Now comes to his stock idea : MM Forgings.
1.2 Lakh MT capacity now.
They maintained consistent Gross margins over multiple economic cycles last 20 years .
Listed since 1994, given 3 bonuses, never diluted equity.
58% revenues cater to Auto industry.
6th largest Forging company in India.
Good bet on upcoming CV upcycle?
They maintained consistent Gross margins over multiple economic cycles last 20 years .
Listed since 1994, given 3 bonuses, never diluted equity.
58% revenues cater to Auto industry.
6th largest Forging company in India.
Good bet on upcoming CV upcycle?
54% capacity utilization means huge scope to ride upcycle with no fresh Capex
Concludes saying this is best stock to play the upcoming CV Upcycle.
Concludes saying this is best stock to play the upcoming CV Upcycle.
Next speaker is Tariq Hussain of investkaroindia.com
His stock idea is Borosil Renewables. Discusses his investing philosophy.
His stock idea is Borosil Renewables. Discusses his investing philosophy.
His idea is bet on Solar industry.
Shares solar power installation outlook across Geographies..
Mentions no single Coal power capacity added in US since 2013 and in India since 2016.
Till 2019 India solar installation were based on China imports. Now it's changing...
Shares solar power installation outlook across Geographies..
Mentions no single Coal power capacity added in US since 2013 and in India since 2016.
Till 2019 India solar installation were based on China imports. Now it's changing...
300 GW Solar planned by 2030.
This is key investment thesis for the stock.
Explains Solar PV panel industry chain.
Capacity announcement coming online in India, 60% from Borosil.
FY24 EPS 50 possible,,Capacity will go to 10GW per year Solar glass.
Solar Glass is 8% of panels cost
This is key investment thesis for the stock.
Explains Solar PV panel industry chain.
Capacity announcement coming online in India, 60% from Borosil.
FY24 EPS 50 possible,,Capacity will go to 10GW per year Solar glass.
Solar Glass is 8% of panels cost
Risks: Regulatory, import duty expires soon. Limited mkt. They r getting into Solar modules.
Natural Gas and Soda ash are key inputs, contracted on LT basis.
Concludes presentation.
Next presentation is post lunch.
Natural Gas and Soda ash are key inputs, contracted on LT basis.
Concludes presentation.
Next presentation is post lunch.
Next speaker Viraj Mehta of Equirus Wealth Pvt Ltd. His stock idea is a snacking company - Prataap Snacks.
Leading Indian listed snacking company - sells everyday 11 million packets of Savory and sweet snacks
FY13 to FY20 revenues and PAT grown 3-4x
Leading Indian listed snacking company - sells everyday 11 million packets of Savory and sweet snacks
FY13 to FY20 revenues and PAT grown 3-4x
Post Covid19 alone dip in profits/Margins, due to drop in sale - lockdown , schools shut down etc.
Main mkt is East India. Main product is potato chips (55% of revenues).
Competition: PepsiCo Lay's, ITC, Haldiram, Bikaji, Balaji wafers and unbranded players.
Main mkt is East India. Main product is potato chips (55% of revenues).
Competition: PepsiCo Lay's, ITC, Haldiram, Bikaji, Balaji wafers and unbranded players.
Sweet segment competition is Britannia etc. (But this is small part of their business -3%)
Huge expansion of business, logistics, SKUs since IPO but stock has fallen.
Sequoia owns major stake.
Intresting observation wrt packed food- Price increase big every 8-10 years.
Huge expansion of business, logistics, SKUs since IPO but stock has fallen.
Sequoia owns major stake.
Intresting observation wrt packed food- Price increase big every 8-10 years.
Valuation cheap at 1.3x sales.
Risks- Change in consumer preferences, bigger players etc
Concludes presentation.
Risks- Change in consumer preferences, bigger players etc
Concludes presentation.
Next speaker is Aniket Gore. Chemistry graduate , Owns family business, entrepreneur, "accidental" active investor as well, in small cap/microcaps/startups etc.
Starts speaking about QSR - growth potential due to nuclear families, consumer convenience etc.
17% CAGR last 5 yrs.
Starts speaking about QSR - growth potential due to nuclear families, consumer convenience etc.
17% CAGR last 5 yrs.
Post 2019 - Swiggy + Zomato + UPI have exploded deliveries for QSR.
In India Cost of Real Estate 15% of sales, labor cost 8%, Food costs 25-35%..
Dominant listed players - Jubilant Foods (Domino Pizza), WestLife(Mc Donald franchise).
Sapphire brands Asia , Devyani international..
In India Cost of Real Estate 15% of sales, labor cost 8%, Food costs 25-35%..
Dominant listed players - Jubilant Foods (Domino Pizza), WestLife(Mc Donald franchise).
Sapphire brands Asia , Devyani international..
Burger King India as well . Discusses their SWOT.
Compares all of them.
Among all he is bullish on Burger King India as a stock idea.
Key Risk - FAT/Obesity Tax, cloud kitchen model aka Dark kitchens
Ends his presentation.
Compares all of them.
Among all he is bullish on Burger King India as a stock idea.
Key Risk - FAT/Obesity Tax, cloud kitchen model aka Dark kitchens
Ends his presentation.
Next speaker is: Ashish Kila, director, Perfect Group.
His stock idea is : Mahindra Holiday Resorts India Ltd.
Asset Heavy Model.
No structural headwind per speaker. He argues that Holiday resorts and likes of AirBnB will coexist as target customer base different.
His stock idea is : Mahindra Holiday Resorts India Ltd.
Asset Heavy Model.
No structural headwind per speaker. He argues that Holiday resorts and likes of AirBnB will coexist as target customer base different.
Only 2 national players. MHRIL and Sterling Holiday.
18 cr invested by MnM in 1996, 277 cr IPO in 2009, placement of 300 cr in 2014.
Remained cash rich even during pandemic.
Unique business model, revenue over 25 yrs
US timeshare mkt 22 b$ India 0.5.
18 cr invested by MnM in 1996, 277 cr IPO in 2009, placement of 300 cr in 2014.
Remained cash rich even during pandemic.
Unique business model, revenue over 25 yrs
US timeshare mkt 22 b$ India 0.5.
79 resorts, 4350 rooms, 2.5 Lk time share customers for MHRIL.
During Covid19 MHRIL added 960 rooms, while 1000s were shut down in unorg sector.
Have resorts outside India as well.
Values MHRIL at 5800 cr vs MCap of 4200 cr.
FY15 2800 rooms vs now 4300.
Concludes presentation.
During Covid19 MHRIL added 960 rooms, while 1000s were shut down in unorg sector.
Have resorts outside India as well.
Values MHRIL at 5800 cr vs MCap of 4200 cr.
FY15 2800 rooms vs now 4300.
Concludes presentation.
Next speaker is @balajispice head of research in @ithoughtwealth .
His stock idea is Jyothy Laboratories.
(Relatively underowned/underresearched FMCG co)
Mcap 2x sales, 3% dividend yield , 6 core brands.
Fringe player except one category- Dishwasher, 17% mkt share.
His stock idea is Jyothy Laboratories.
(Relatively underowned/underresearched FMCG co)
Mcap 2x sales, 3% dividend yield , 6 core brands.
Fringe player except one category- Dishwasher, 17% mkt share.
Used to have high debt post Henkel acquisition, now has paid it all off.
Bit slow growing, OPM lower than peers.
Mgmt has made many changes to improve mkt share.
WC reduced from 23 to 15 days.
New products include liquid detergents.
May acquire brands.
Risk : Crude Oil is input
Bit slow growing, OPM lower than peers.
Mgmt has made many changes to improve mkt share.
WC reduced from 23 to 15 days.
New products include liquid detergents.
May acquire brands.
Risk : Crude Oil is input
Other risk include Competition, excess exposure to Kerala , failure to scale up.
Concludes presentation .
Concludes presentation .
Next speaker - Suruchi Jain, Founder, Opportune Wealth advisors.
Her stock idea is : Syngene (Biocon group)
Her stock idea is : Syngene (Biocon group)
Present across value chain of Drug discovery + development
Top 3 clients are big global pharmaceutical cos like Amgen, BristolMyers etc
Strength: LT contracts, sticky B2B relationships, stable ROE/ROCE.
Will double revenue/PAT next 5 yrs.
Biocon Subsidary so excellent mgmt.
Top 3 clients are big global pharmaceutical cos like Amgen, BristolMyers etc
Strength: LT contracts, sticky B2B relationships, stable ROE/ROCE.
Will double revenue/PAT next 5 yrs.
Biocon Subsidary so excellent mgmt.
Concludes presentation saying valuation reasonable for this kind of business/company.
Next presenter is Rishi Maheswari from Aksa Capital Advisors. Speaks of investment thesis of his - metamorphosis of RIL, Info edge and Titan.
His stock idea is : Aditya Birla Fashion Retail Ltd (ABFRL)
24K cr Mcap. Net Debt free, promoter holding 56%.
His stock idea is : Aditya Birla Fashion Retail Ltd (ABFRL)
24K cr Mcap. Net Debt free, promoter holding 56%.
Last 6 years ABFRL made many acquisition .
Pantaloons acquisition has turned around.
Pantaloons 60% store sales are own brands.
Tgt Store level EBIDTA of 15%
Financial will change rapidly for better FY23.
Risks - Omni channel threat, over diversification.
Concludes presentation.
Pantaloons acquisition has turned around.
Pantaloons 60% store sales are own brands.
Tgt Store level EBIDTA of 15%
Financial will change rapidly for better FY23.
Risks - Omni channel threat, over diversification.
Concludes presentation.
Next presenter is: @subashr232 from TRam Financial services.
His idea from a sector undergoing worst turbulence. Can deliver good once turbulence ends .
The stock idea is : Bajaj Auto Limited.
Stock going thru a lean patch now.
Supposedly sunset industry buy can turn around. Not a buy and hold but can be strategic bet.
The stock idea is : Bajaj Auto Limited.
Stock going thru a lean patch now.
Supposedly sunset industry buy can turn around. Not a buy and hold but can be strategic bet.
Multiple headwinds from 2018 - ILFS, crude spike, BS6, Covid19 1 and 2, chip shortage and EV dilemma .
27K cr revenues .
Sales down to 2013 levels.
Reasonable mkt share in motor cycles, scooter exit is mistake, exports are big to 3rd world countries (currency risk)
27K cr revenues .
Sales down to 2013 levels.
Reasonable mkt share in motor cycles, scooter exit is mistake, exports are big to 3rd world countries (currency risk)
Big mkt leader in 3 wheeler. 3W Autorickshaw sales regulated by state guvt permits.
Debt free company.
Solid financials over years. 14 yrs PAT and MCap up 6x.
KTM premiumisation optionality.
it's a bet on Auto turnaround anticipation + reasonable valuations.
Debt free company.
Solid financials over years. 14 yrs PAT and MCap up 6x.
KTM premiumisation optionality.
it's a bet on Auto turnaround anticipation + reasonable valuations.
When how What - Can buy 10+- % CMP, exit if no turnaround after 3 years from now.
Similar stock idea is Hero/Maruti Suzuki.
Concludes presentation.
Similar stock idea is Hero/Maruti Suzuki.
Concludes presentation.
Next presenter - Shagun Jain seasoned Corporate banker.
His stick idea is : Precision Camshafts .
70% India mkt share, 9% global, net debt free.
Into retrofit to EVs biz. 100 cr cash used to invest in operation- Capex + acquisition
His stick idea is : Precision Camshafts .
70% India mkt share, 9% global, net debt free.
Into retrofit to EVs biz. 100 cr cash used to invest in operation- Capex + acquisition
2017 - Making high margin camshafts used in ICE
2018-19 - Acquired EV biz from Netherland.
Not having large non ICE business.
Retrofit biz- replace ICE with electric equivalent- low margin biz.
No major Retrofitting player in India currently.
Risk -New players,faster EV adoption
2018-19 - Acquired EV biz from Netherland.
Not having large non ICE business.
Retrofit biz- replace ICE with electric equivalent- low margin biz.
No major Retrofitting player in India currently.
Risk -New players,faster EV adoption
So it's a dual play on ICE + EV adoption. 1300 Cr MCap.
Concludes presentation .
Concludes presentation .
Next speaker is Ekansh Mittal from Katalyst wealth. His stock idea is Cupid Ltd. 270 CT Mcap net debt free co, 19% CAGR EBIDTA over 5 years. PE 14 . Into male/female condoms and IVD products.
Largely B2B business, 500 mill condom capacity .
Largely B2B business, 500 mill condom capacity .
Mostly exports ,20% domestic. Large institutional sales - WHO etc.
HLL (Hind Latex Limited) main competitor but mostly it is in B2C biz.
Valuation reasonable. 20x in 8 years, 0x in 6 years .
Concludes presentation.
HLL (Hind Latex Limited) main competitor but mostly it is in B2C biz.
Valuation reasonable. 20x in 8 years, 0x in 6 years .
Concludes presentation.
The final speaker for the day is @varadhar1 , a familiar speaker in @TIA_Investors past 20-20 sessions.
Self taught retail investor focuses on forensics, scuttlebutt investing
Begins with a summary of his past 20-20 recommendations (JSPL, TV Today, Majesco, Pokarna)..
Self taught retail investor focuses on forensics, scuttlebutt investing
Begins with a summary of his past 20-20 recommendations (JSPL, TV Today, Majesco, Pokarna)..
His stock idea is - Intellect Design Arena.
Spin off from Polaris in 2015. 10 bagger since.
Improving OpLeverage, DSO.
Scuttle butt from Glassdoor is positive (relevant reviews are taken)
Now doing 350 cr PAT can scale to 1200 cr PAT in 4 yrs ,
Close Competitor Temenos.
Spin off from Polaris in 2015. 10 bagger since.
Improving OpLeverage, DSO.
Scuttle butt from Glassdoor is positive (relevant reviews are taken)
Now doing 350 cr PAT can scale to 1200 cr PAT in 4 yrs ,
Close Competitor Temenos.
Foresees 2.5x upside in stock and max 20% downside here so good risk reward.
1200 cr PAT over 2500 cr revenue is seen in 4 yrs, current mcap 9K cr seems reasonable.
Concludes presentation!
1200 cr PAT over 2500 cr revenue is seen in 4 yrs, current mcap 9K cr seems reasonable.
Concludes presentation!
@shyamsek delivers the concluding/valedictory address and with this the TIA 20-20, 2022 episode session is concluded !
- End of Thread.
- End of Thread.
Loading suggestions...