FPL Osama
FPL Osama

@FPLOsama

33 Tweets 3 reads Mar 17, 2022
๐—š๐—ฎ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐˜„๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ 30 ๐—”๐—ป๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜†๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜€ โœ๏ธ
Greetings & welcome to my weekly preview which covers
โ–ช๏ธBGW30 & Onwards Plans
โ–ช๏ธStrikers Dilemma
โ–ช๏ธSelling Salah
โ–ช๏ธLeicester
โ–ช๏ธFreehit Strategy
โ–ช๏ธTeam Preview
โ–ช๏ธCaptaincy
โ–ช๏ธDifferentials
@OfficialFPL
#FPL
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My Opta data, Stats Tables, Heatmaps ,Player comparisons and other analytical tools i use in my threads are all taken from @FFScout Members Area
๐Ÿ”’ Full Access :
bit.ly
๐Ÿ“Œ Planning for BGW30 and onwards
Navigating to the biggest blank gameweek this season varies and definitely its team dependent. Wildcarders in 26 & 28 almost wont be facing major troubles prior gameweek 30 with average 7-8 players
Many questions been raised for this topic
How many players are enough for GW30 ?
This question is definitely been asked by those who are not using any of their freehits. In my opinion 7+ players are enough to go. There are tricky fixtures like ARS vs AVL - TOT vs WHU and I canโ€™t see much upsides to just add players
How many hits we should take ?
As I stated above, 7 or 8 players are more than enough for me this week so dont exaggerate in taking hits. My advise here if you are taking a hit then make sure it will benefit your GW31
Two hits are the maximum number for me to field 7+ players
Should I roll or use my Free Transfer ?
This is definitely a team dependent question and there is no straightforward answer here because it relies on how are you planning for GW31 and onwards specially with the announcement of the double gameweeks in 33 for some teams
To conclude an answer and specially for non WCers, Two free transfers could be vital specially after the international break and attack the DGW33 & DGW36. Use your transfer if it actually has an added value for GW30 and onwards and make you avoid using the freehit chip
Planning from 31 and beyond would definitely be discussed in details in the next preview and until then, below spreadsheet includes the confirmed and potential double & blank GWs might help you in your transfer plans
Credit for @BenCrellin and @PlanetFPLPod for their insights
๐Ÿ“Œ Strikers Dilemma
Comfortably, I can say that this season has been disappointing for many players specially the forwards. In this part, I will cover the best forward options to rely on in each price bracket
Premium Forwards ( > ยฃ10.0)
Four strikers are in this price bracket: Harry Kane (ยฃ12.4) , For me the best and obviously the set and forget striker for the rest the season.
Ronaldo(ยฃ12.2) whom on paper is the highest scoring forward so far, yetโ€ฆ
โ€ฆ His fixtures and Man Utd performance are not enough to tip his balance
Lukaku (ยฃ11.5) is not even the 3rd option for his manager so definitely his price canโ€™t justify owning him. While Vardy (ยฃ10.3) is a Wait and See case as his recent injuries might be a blocking point
Mid-Priced Forwards ( ยฃ6.0 - ยฃ9.9 )
There are many options in this price bracket whom I will cover the best of them
1. Alexander Lacazette (ยฃ8.4) who blanked once ( against Liverpool ) in the last 6 gameweeks , Playing in BGW30 & has potential doubles in 33 and 36
2.Allan Saint-Maximin (ยฃ6.8) before injury in GW26 he had 3 contributions in 5 games (GW19-GW26) . I can consider ASM in GW32 and onwards with a confirmed DGW33 and then Norwich
A fit ASM is much preferable for me than Chris Wood
There are other players but personally I have some blocking points to consider them :
Patson Daka(ยฃ7.1) & Iheanacho (ยฃ6.9) should be considered from GW30 and onwards specially in the absence of Vardy but The problem is their xMins as Rodgers is not priorising one on the other
Ivan Toney (ยฃ6.6) scored 5 goals ( 3 Penalties) the last 2 matches from nPxG = 0.6
Over performance and just relying on penalties in addition to no postponements for brentford with quite tough fixtures makes me step aside from Toney
Wout Weghorst (ยฃ6.5) who will play 5 matches from GW31 to GW33. Burnley are fighting for relegation but in parallel , Burnley had the third worst xG in the last six which might push me away to target their attacking players
Budget Forwards (< ยฃ6.0)
Broja (ยฃ5.5) still the best budget forward in the game. Cucho Hernandes (ยฃ5.0) who impressed with his 3 goals in the last two games could also be on my radar
Conclusion ๐Ÿ“œ:
In my opinion, Kane - Broja and Laca/ASM/Wout is the best combination
๐Ÿ“Œ Salah: Keep or Sell & bring him back ?
To answer this question, You have to put a plan to get Mo back . Liverpool are blanking in GW30 and then Having Watford in 31 and The season biggest clash vs Man City in GW32
I can agree on Selling Salah under two conditions :
-If you are wildcarding in 31
-If you have calculated the risks of not having MO until 33
There is a third considerable condition that might support the idea
GW30: Salah to Barnes/Maddison
GW31: Raphinha to Salah
The reason behind justfying these moves is that Leicester will play in Blankweek 30 and have a confirmed double in GW33 , While Leeds are most likely blanking in 33 if Chelsea wins their FA tie
So selling Salah this week and getting him back next week is acceptable for me โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ While not having until GW33 is too risky for me. My advise for those who are not wildcarding in GW31 and want to sell Salah is to prioritize their GW31 moves first before taking the decision
If you have 2 or 3 more priorities then keep him so need not to take hits in GW31
๐Ÿ“Œ Should we start to consider Leicester assets ?
Leicester is confirmed to be one of 8 teams who will play in Blank Gameweek 30 and have a double gameweek in 33 when they face Newcastle and Everton also could still have two more double gameweeks between 34 and 37
Which players should we target ?
Schmeichel (ยฃ4.8) is the safest pick from defenders. Barnes (ยฃ6.5), Maddison (ยฃ6.7) and definitely Vardy(ยฃ10.8) would be considered but if he is fit by this period so he is a wait and see case
The question now is who to pick: Barnes or Maddison?
Barnes vs Maddison [ Last 6 Matches ]
- Mins played : 371 v 286
- Big Chances : 2 v 1
- Penalty area touches: 33 v 10
- Attempts : 18 v 12
- Chances created : 6 v 5
- xGi : 2.65 v 1.30
Barnes is on form and blanked only once in the last 8 when he starts. The numbers are leaning a bit towards him but it is still a close call between him and Maddison
If Iam choosing one I will choose Harvey, The most fit and on Form player of the team
๐Ÿ“Œ Freehit: 30 vs 33 vs 36
The Freehit chip(s) still viable for FPL managers who saved it for the final run so I will try to be strict to the point here
When should I use my Freehit(s) ?
Once again, Activating any chip not only the freehit is a team dependent decision
๐Ÿ”นFreehit30
If you have 7 or players in GW30 either by free transfers or maximum two hits , i would strongly recommend to save your Freehit(s) for another Double gameweeks which will have between 31 and 37
My Freehit draft for GW30
๐Ÿ”นFreehit33
The nearest chance I can see to use your first even your last FH is GW33 with confirmed 5 blanks and likely 2 more for Arsenal and Southampton
Teams like Wolves , Leeds and Villa are likely to blank if the big teams win their FA Cup ties
๐Ÿ”นFreehit 36
This depends on the bench boost chip. If you already used it then I recommend to use your freehit in GW36 which is expected to be the biggest double this season
Conclusion ๐Ÿ“œ :
One Freehit Strategy
-GW30 : If you have 6 or less players
-GW33
-GW36 : If the bench boost already used
Two Freehits Strategy
-GW30 : If you have 6 or less players
-GW33
-GW36 : If the bench boost already used
-GW37: Small double gameweek
๐Ÿ“Œ My Team Preview
This is a new part of my preview but many have asked me to share my personal plans
This is my bus team and most probably Iam rolling the transfer and have 2FTs after the international break to attack the final run
๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐œ๐ฒยฉ๏ธ
My Best Captaincy Options for Gameweek 30
1๏ธโƒฃ Kane || WHU(H)
2๏ธโƒฃ Son || WHU(H)
3๏ธโƒฃ Jimรฉnez || LEE(H)
๐——๐—ถ๐—ณ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฝ๐˜๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐˜†
โญ๏ธ Barnes - BRE(H)
โญ๏ธ Kulusevski - WHU(H)
โญ๏ธ Maddison - BRE(H)
๐——๐—ถ๐—ณ๐—ณ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐—น ๐—ฃ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ธ๐˜€
1๏ธโƒฃ Luke Thomas
๐Ÿ’ฐ4.3
Ownership: 0.9%
Fixture: BRE(H)
2๏ธโƒฃ Patson Daka
๐Ÿ’ฐ7.1
Ownership: 1.6%
Fixture: BRE(H)
3๏ธโƒฃ Gabriel Martinelli
๐Ÿ’ฐ5.3
Ownership: 3.4%
Fixture: AVL(A)

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