Designation of #Sudan's Central Reserve Police under OFAC today clearly a warning shot to #SudanCoup, specifically Hemedti, after his Moscow visit.
1) Clearly, nothing moves the needle faster in Washington than a link to its sworn enemy du jour: these days it's Moscow (again). +
1) Clearly, nothing moves the needle faster in Washington than a link to its sworn enemy du jour: these days it's Moscow (again). +
The coup took place 5 months ago but this announcement came only after the Russia trip.
2) This may be followed by individual sanctions unless regime complies. Unfortunately the trend has been that with big gestures from the US, usually comes violence during protests soon after +
2) This may be followed by individual sanctions unless regime complies. Unfortunately the trend has been that with big gestures from the US, usually comes violence during protests soon after +
This means that during the protests all this week we may see another uptick in state violence (today #Mar21March was already a violent one)
3) This move by the US seems to run counter to those of allies the UAE who seem set on helping regime consolidation, so it's an indication +
3) This move by the US seems to run counter to those of allies the UAE who seem set on helping regime consolidation, so it's an indication +
that Washington and Abu Dhabi are not on the same page on this.
4) US must have evidence against the CRP and considering the volume of documentation on the behaviours of other security bodies at protests and otherwise, it's likely they have evidence on the SAF, RSF and GIS too +
4) US must have evidence against the CRP and considering the volume of documentation on the behaviours of other security bodies at protests and otherwise, it's likely they have evidence on the SAF, RSF and GIS too +
Depending on which they target next, it will be clear to see what is driving this move from Washington: state violence against civilians or proximity to Putin.
5) The thing is that sanctions against one of the generals is likely to benefit the other. And sanctions against both +
5) The thing is that sanctions against one of the generals is likely to benefit the other. And sanctions against both +
is likely to give both another reason to continue to resist reforms/civilian handover. The consequences to this are likely to be very consequential even if the sanctions themselves are not
6) Sanctions, when applied in a policy vacuum tend to be rather ham-fisted measures and +
6) Sanctions, when applied in a policy vacuum tend to be rather ham-fisted measures and +
may not prove effective but as a break from international inertia + the punitive symbolism can be very satisfying, at least momentarily, for victims/the public.
#Sudan has a long history with sanctions, this development will likely be met with both celebration and wariness. END
#Sudan has a long history with sanctions, this development will likely be met with both celebration and wariness. END
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