Finance
Cryptocurrency
Economic Analysis
Mainstream use cases
Mainstreaming of narrative
New primitives
Critical Mass
THE FOUR HORSEMAN OF THE SUPERCYCLE
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A personal thesis, helped along by smart people.
No reason to take this as gospel.
But this idea the reason I went full-time in crypto a little less than a year ago.
No reason to take this as gospel.
But this idea the reason I went full-time in crypto a little less than a year ago.
TL;DR
The supercycle happens with an essential mainstreaming of crypto.
I have outlined this mainstreaming with four 'horseman,' or sequential steps towards a supercycle.
They are:
1. Mainstream use cases
2. Mainstreaming of narrative
3. New primitives
4. Critical Mass
The supercycle happens with an essential mainstreaming of crypto.
I have outlined this mainstreaming with four 'horseman,' or sequential steps towards a supercycle.
They are:
1. Mainstream use cases
2. Mainstreaming of narrative
3. New primitives
4. Critical Mass
The original idea of a supercycle came from @zhusu
• adoption steams forward rapidly
• institutional and mainstream capital comes into the space
• a P2P 'internet of value' removes middlemen and distributes ownership to users
Not up only; but up forever
• adoption steams forward rapidly
• institutional and mainstream capital comes into the space
• a P2P 'internet of value' removes middlemen and distributes ownership to users
Not up only; but up forever
THE FIRST HORSEMAN: MAINSTREAM USE CASES
The cutting edge of mainstream use cases for crypto was NFTs: bash them if you want but even my mom heard about them
We're now seeing NFTs represent community ownership.
Something that fungible tokens originally promised.
Ownership of digital culture. Product-market-fit.
We're now seeing NFTs represent community ownership.
Something that fungible tokens originally promised.
Ownership of digital culture. Product-market-fit.
Other Mainstream Use Cases:
• Decentralized Loan Origination
• Private Payments
• Uncensorable Money
With many more to come.
• Decentralized Loan Origination
• Private Payments
• Uncensorable Money
With many more to come.
THE SECOND HORSEMAN: MAINSTREAM NARRATIVE SHIFT
Crypto was originally branded as a lottery: speculative gambling instruments without real value.
With nation-state adoption we will see this change.
Crypto will soon mean:
• Decentralized
• Sovereign
• Trustless
• Free
A narrative shifts from 'don't hold' to 'must-hold.'
With nation-state adoption we will see this change.
Crypto will soon mean:
• Decentralized
• Sovereign
• Trustless
• Free
A narrative shifts from 'don't hold' to 'must-hold.'
THE THIRD HORSEMAN: NEW PRIMITIVES
Crypto goes from copying to innovating.
@cdixon describes this shift away from 'mapping to previous tech' below:
Crypto goes from copying to innovating.
@cdixon describes this shift away from 'mapping to previous tech' below:
I can think of a few exciting new primitives are more or less 'crypto-native' and exist already in the crypto space:
• Tokenomic design
• Asset composability
• Squeeth
But the supercycle will take these ideas and expand on them in ways that are simply unimaginable today.
• Tokenomic design
• Asset composability
• Squeeth
But the supercycle will take these ideas and expand on them in ways that are simply unimaginable today.
THE FOURTH HORSEMAN: CRITICAL MASS
Crypto-idolized @cobie summed this up best with his quote below:
Crypto-idolized @cobie summed this up best with his quote below:
The third horseman assumes crypto unlocks use cases and value beyond speculation.
We change from:
• Absurd valuations due to potential
To:
• Absurd valuations due to intrinsic value
At this point crypto cannot be ignored.
We change from:
• Absurd valuations due to potential
To:
• Absurd valuations due to intrinsic value
At this point crypto cannot be ignored.
I truly believe in a supercycle that is around the corner: the conditions of fourth-turning style turmoil are setting a stage that crypto clearly addresses.
Sooner or later, it is coming.
Sooner or later, it is coming.
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