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Ukrainian Theater of War
Humanitarian Impact
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1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 35-36: Todays update briefly focuses on the Kharkiv-Donbas Strategic Front. Ukrainian forces have made important around Kharkiv, threatening to significantly disrupt Russian attempts to reinforce success in the Donbas. #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Refugees in various European countries exceeds 5.3 million, with over 6.5 million IDPs in Ukraine. Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure constitutes a heinous war crime by willfully causing great suffering against civilians.
3/ Weather assessment. For the Donbas forecasted thunderstorms and wintery mix will continue to adversely affect aerospace and ground operations, we could see a rise in abandoned Russian equipment due to poor weather. Temperatures generally will remain between 17/ 0 C.
5/ Kharkiv AO. Ukrainian forces have regained key terrain east of Kharkiv, allowing for the positioning of artillery and strike groups to interdict the flow of Russian reinforcements to the Donbas. Russian forces will need to stabilize forward positions before reinforcing south.
6/ Donets River Line. Izium has been the focal point of intense fighting over the past 48 hrs, it is unclear how long the Ukrainians will be able to hold this part of the line. The Ukrainians report that the Russians are forming strike groups to spearhead of a new offensive push.
7/ These improvised tactical formations will likely mirror the Azerbaijani Armed Forces employment of blocking groups & assault groups to penetrate well-established defenses in difficult terrain (supported by artillery and UAV strikes), bypassing strongpoint when needed.
8/ Mariupol. The Russian & Separatist continue to press deeper into central Mariupol. Social media posts document the use of thermobaric munitions throughout the city. Mounting losses will prevent Russia from committing these units to offensive action once the city is captured.
10/ Battle Damage Assessment. Although the focus of western analysts is on the loss of Russian personnel and equipment it is important to note the toll combat is taking on Ukrainian forces as well. Captured Russian equip does fill some gaps, but not all.
11/ If the West does not continue supporting the Ukrainian Armed Forces with the material it truly needs (i.e., tanks, armored vehicles, air defense systems, fighter jets, etc.) then the success Ukraine is currently experiencing might not be sustainable.
12/ Ukraine and the West are in an ideal position to deal Putinβs regime a crippling blow, but only if the West can make Ukrainian resolve to defend Western ideals and defeat Russian aggression.
13/ Peace Negotiations. It is doubtful that the Kremlin will accept the terms Ukraine presented during the recent peace talks in Istanbul. Concurrently it is highly doubtful the West will agree to the security guarantee arraignment Ukraine has proposed.
14/ There will be no peace as long as the situation in the Donbas & Crimea remains unresolved. As of this writing it does not seem either side is ready to negotiate the future status of eastern & southern Ukraine without a clear military victory to support the victor's claim.
15/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
16/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.
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